A snow day literally and figuratively falls from the sky, unbidden, and seems like a thing of wonder. -- Susan Orlean

Monday, February 10, 2014

Uncertainties Abound for Thursday's Storm (Feb. 13)

If the weather predicting models suddenly transformed into behemoth Bay-esque robots, we would have the showdowns of all showdowns heading toward this Thursday's snow event.

We have three models with which we concern ourselves (so that you don't have to concern yourselves). Just in case you were wondering, there's the GFS, the NAM, and ECMWF. The first two are North American, the third is European.

The buzz is that the North American models are pushing the storm east and away from us. Coastal New England could get some snow while we in the mountains would end up with bubkis. But the European model has the storm tracking much farther to the west, which would result in a hefty snow storm.

Thanks, Accuweather.

The good news from all of this computer-driven wrangling is that the European model has been an All-Star performer this winter in terms of its accuracy. This trend continues one we've seen for the midwinter period the last few years.

Yes, we are only 72 hours away from this storm's arrival, but, no, we do not have one shred of a positive vibe about this storm. Storm Charley was a meteorological open net goal--we were ready to call a snow day on the Saturday before that storm. This storm is a different animal; we don't even have a clear sense of its timing yet let alone how much precipitation will fall (and what kind).

We'll go ahead and risk jinxing it and offer up our fourth name poll of the season. The polling period will end at noon on Wednesday.

Much work ahead for this storm for the GSD Staff; we'll have more tonight after we check in with a few more reliable sources. The situation is very tenuous, so don't even count on a delay or release for Thursday's storm.

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