Wednesday, December 12, 2018

El Nino Blues: A Very Scroogy Forecast

It certainly has been a while since we've checked in with our faithful flake followers. We apologize for not updating you, but as you have witnessed, there just hasn't been much to report around here. And the forecast is not encouraging for the rest of the month. A White Christmas this year is highly unlikely.

After a blockbuster November, we have seen little precipitation in December. A few dustings here and there have filled the chilly Berkshire air, but it's pretty much been boring winter fare for the last few weeks. Temps are around normal this week (high 20s), but they will warm up to the low 40s for the weekend before returning back to the mid-30s next week.

We may get a few snow showers tomorrow afternoon, but it should be dry through the weekend. We may see drizzle overnight on Friday, but the air should be warm enough to avoid icing conditions. And then midday Monday we may see more prolonged snow showers. But with the warm air in place, snow on Monday will likely melt on the roadways before it can accumulate.

At this time we do not see any major storms in the pipeline for New England for the next few weeks.

Here is a very general forecast map for the temperature in the continental US from December 20 to December 26:

It shows that this warm-ish December pattern is likely to continue. Even if it does snow at some point next week, it will be the slushy, wet kind of snow that will have a tough time accumulating on the roads. We are not fond of this map at all.

We'll let you know if the Monday mild disturbance shows any signs of life, but we're going to have to get used to the reality that the next snow day will not occur until January, 2019.

Saturday, December 1, 2018

Snow and Sleet Tonight (Dec. 1)

Hello, Flake Followers. Please be alert to the potential for snow and sleet this evening in the Berkshires, especially in higher elevation towns.

The NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory--our third this week--due to the potential for about an inch of snow and coating of ice. It starts at 10 PM Saturday and ends at noon on Sunday.

We don't think this minor system will amount to much, but those of you who have to travel in the early morning tomorrow should be aware of this Winter Weather Advisory.

As for the rest of December, we've seen guidance from weather experts we trust that conditions will be stormy. Disruptions in the Polar Vortex could yield a stormy December. Obviously, we like what those folks are saying, and we're keeping a keen eye on the potential for several December snow storms.

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Light Snow For Today; No Delays

It's still snowing in much of Berkshire County but it is very light. Main roads are clear in Williamstown, but side roads are snow-covered. As of now a few schools in central New York have called in delays, but no school districts in Berkshire County have opted for the later start. Should that change, we'll run a list right here.

The 5:15 radar; light snow moving north to south across Berkshire County.
Light snow should continue to fall off and on throughout the day due to the circulation of the low pressure system--still over New England--creating lake effect-like snow from north to south. Delays will be less common today because there will be no burst of moderate snow like the one we had yesterday during the commute.

Tuesday, November 27, 2018

Another Winter Weather Advisory--Delays for Wednesday?

Greetings, Flake Followers. This sneaky post-Thanksgiving break storm refuses to yield, and we're in for another snowy evening.

Tonight the NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for all of Berkshire County. South County schools could be in line to partake in the two-hour delay party tomorrow, should the top end of the prediction come through.

NWS-Albany has predicted another 2-6 inches for this evening. The Advisory ends at 7 PM tomorrow, so this will again be one of these wait-and-see types of storms. The reason for the advisory is that the low pressure system is fairly stationary and just spinning over New England. This spinning is pumping snow from north to south right over the Green Mountains and the Berkshires. If this pattern continues, we could easily see the 5-6" on the top end of the prediction. But as soon as the low pressure starts to lift from our region east-northeast, we'll see the snow come to an end.

The snow over the Berkshires (7 PM radar) is moving north to south.

What this means is that delays are indeed possible tomorrow, but it's another low-confidence prediction from our staffers at GSD. We more or less botched this morning's storm prediction for North County--we did not foresee how perfect the timing was for that wet and greasy snow--but at least we had the right school districts in line for a delay or stray snow day.

Not as good as last night's map image.

Because of how treacherous roads were this morning, and we do think the snow pump will continue through much of the night, we foresee a few schools having delays tomorrow, with the usual suspects in line for the best chances at a shorter day: Savoy, Florida, Clarksburg, Adams/Cheshire, Central Berkshire. We'll just have to see if the snow persists long enough to give South County schools a shot at a delay.

Most schools in Berkshire County will have a full day of school tomorrow, but--again--we won't be surprised to see 4-8 schools and districts with delays. We'll be up bright in early to report on any calls from schools.