Saturday, October 20, 2018

Winter 2018-19 Outlook

Hello, friendly Followers of the Flake! We are back and better than ever. And we can not wait to see the flakes fly for the 2018-19 winter season. With the unseasonably cold temps we've been seeing this October and with the threat of snow showers in the next week or so, it's high time to get the Greylock Snow Day machine primed, pumped and ready to deliver.

And just a reminder--we are a snow day service. We do the deep dives, pore over the maps, put the ear to the ground and consult the tea leaves so you don't have to it. We watch the weather and then we predict snow days. It's what we do.

So, let's get on with it. What is the 2018-19 season going to bring us?

There's no real way to sugarcoat this, but the forecast is not great for the northeast this winter. It would appear that an El Nino will be in place in the Pacific. Historically, El Nino winters mean a cooler and wetter South and a drier and warmer North. Our proximity to the coast will always put is in the mix for multiple snow storms throughout the winter, but at least in the first half of the winter we are unlikely to see nor'easter after nor'easter after nor'easter the way we did last March.

Here are some long-range maps recently generated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:

It's easy to be discouraged by these maps, but you shouldn't be. So many factors go into long-range predictions that it is easy for several of them to be off, giving us very different winter results 60, 90 and 120 days from now.

GSD thinks that, similar to last winter, we'll start slowly and then the regularity of storms will increase in the second half of winter 2018-19. Despite the cold air we're experiencing right now, we'll see a warming trend for the back half of November and all of December. And then in mid-January you can expect things to look and feel much more like a good, old-fashioned New England winter.

We don't see any measurable snow in the forecast for the next few weeks, but the air will certainly be cold enough for snow in the evening hours in the higher elevations should a weather disturbance pass through our area.

Posts will be intermittent for the next month or so until we start to see real snow threats. Don't forget to check out our Facebook page (@GreylockSnowDay), Twitter feed (@GreylockSnowDa1), and Instagram (greylock_snow_day) for additional content. Feel free to message us with any questions you have. Thanks for reading!