Thursday, October 29, 2020

Winter Weather Advisory for Friday

Our regional weather experts (NWS Albany) have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Friday. The advisory calls for 1-3 inches of snow between 4 am and noon. 

Predicted snow totals this low don't usually warrant Winter Weather Advisories, but because there are so many leaves still on the trees, there will be higher chance of downed branches, power outages and other associated peril. Plus, people are out of practice driving in the snow so it's better to be a little cautious with with the Advisory for the first snow of the season. 

FYI, in the yearly battle of the models--US vs Euro--we are rooting for the Euro for this round (if you are pro-snow, which, duh, you should be if you're reading this post). The Euro is predicting 2-3 inches for most parts with 4-5" possible on the east-facing slopes of the Berkshires. The US model has upped its snow prediction slightly today and now has 1-2 inches in most places with 3 inches on those slopes facing the Pioneer Valley. That they've come into closer agreement today makes a 1-2 inch covering of snow during the Friday morning commute almost a certainty. Or so we think.

From CBS Channel 6 in Albany

One other thing--the temps will not need to get below freezing for the rain to change to snow. Because the coldest air is aloft and not at ground level, we'll see snow begin to fall with temps in the mid-30s tomorrow morning.

We'll bump the Confidence Meter a smidge to reflect that chance for some delays tomorrow. Candidates with a higher chance for a delay tomorrow would be Central Berkshire, Clarksburg, Florida--the usual suspects for elevation-dependent storms.

Berkshire County Snow For Friday

 Just a quick update on the timing of the storm for tomorrow, as it could impact the morning commute.

The storm formerly known as Hurricane Zeta will track into the Northeast by midday today (Thursday) and give the Berkshires a soaking rain all afternoon and into the evening. Outdoor activities will not be particularly fun today with steady rain and temps in the mid 40s.

Overnight, we will see cold air sucked in to the region from the north. Just how far down the cold air comes will determine the timing of the transition from rain to snow. Higher elevations will get colder faster, which is why meteorologists are predicting more snow for the mountainous terrain on the Mass/Vermont border.

From our friends at WNYT Channel 13, Albany.

Also in the mix is the potential development of an intensifying coastal low pressure system which could generate a quick shot of snow around the time of the morning commute. That's the part of this complicated system that should give everyone in Berkshire County an inch or so of snow.

If the length of the school day is shortened tomorrow, it probably will be in the form of a delay. We don't think there will be many delays called--and we presume that a delay would be for in-person attendees as well as Zoomers--but it's within the realm of possibility. 

NWS Albany

Regardless of what happens with the snow tonight, Friday will be a damp, raw day with temps topping out in the high 30s. The precipitation should taper to snow showers by midday and then end in the afternoon. Temps could bottom out in the high teens Friday night. Welcome back, Old Man Winter.

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

We're Back! (Because It's October in the Berkshires)

Hello, Flake Followers! We're very excited to be back for another--hopefully very predictable--season of Greylock Snow Day.

You're probably wondering about the fate of ol' GSD in the new world of virtual learning. You may have read this piece. Or this article. Or even this one. But, we are happy to state that reports of GSD's demise have been greatly exaggerated.

The Home Office in Williamstown will stay open. Even though the day-off-from-school type of snow day may be a thing of the past (more about that below), school districts are still going to be impelled to cancel travel to school on days that are simply too treacherous. We will definitely still fire up the supercomputers whenever a storm is lurking, and we will do our best to offer spot-on predictions about delays or cancelled travel for in-person students. The show will go on.