Friday, March 22, 2019

Rain to Snow Today; Winter Storm Warning for Northern Berkshire

Temps have stayed well above freezing at the GSD Home Office (elevation 900'), so the rain continues here. Snow is falling to our north and west. Expect the shift from rain to snow to occur later today and into this evening. Here's what we have for shortened days:

EARLY RELEASE:

Hoosick Falls (NY)
Southwest Vermont SU

SNOW DAY:

Emma Miller
Mohawk Trail

Thursday, March 21, 2019

Winter Storm Warning for No. Berkshire County

[6 PM Update: Southwest Vermont Supervisory SU will be releasing students early tomorrow due to the Winter Storm Warning forecast for Bennington County. We'll start a list later tonight only if more districts call in. See our afternoon report below.]

Boy, that escalated quickly.

The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Winter Storm Warning--not a Watch--for Berkshire County. Snow days and early releases are in play for Friday. The window for this storm is 2 AM Friday to noon on Saturday.

Colder air is expected to deepen as the storm moves up the coast and intensifies. The rain we are experiencing right now is the leading edge of the storm, and we will see a gradual changeover to wet snow anywhere between 3 AM and noon Friday, depending on the elevation of your location. Some schools do have a shot at a snow day tomorrow.

Because the temperature has been over freezing during the day for the last week or so, it will take much longer for the snow to accumulate on the roads. For this reason we think students should have little problem getting to their schools in Northern Berkshire tomorrow morning.



But if the snow begins to accumulate on the roads before the morning commute, or Superintendents are worried about accumulating snow during the day, then we might see a snow day or two from this list of schools: Hancock, Florida, Savoy, Central Berkshire, Adams-Cheshire, and perhaps even North Adams and Mount Greylock.

In all of Berkshire County we should see accumulating snow at some point on Friday For that reason, we can not rule out a few early releases for tomorrow.

This storm will impact high elevation towns the most. NWS Albany is expecting 5 to 10 inches of snow for Northern Berkshire with some higher elevations getting over a foot. Southern Berkshire County could see 4-6 inches. The bulk of this snow should fall Friday afternoon and into the evening, if we were to generalize for the entire County.

Be aware that the past history with these late season storms indicates that it will be a bust. But--there's always a but--should it do what meteorologists think it is going to do, some group of students will have some time off from school tomorrow.

The GSD Office will be kicking it into high gear tomorrow morning with updates on the storm, cancellations and/or delays.

If you can make sense of this snow onset map, then you're a better person than we are. Good luck with it.


Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Winter's Last Gasps

Hello, Flake Followers! Old Man Winter may have a few more statements (plural) to make before he retires for the season.

A complicated and messy storm will impact our region Thursday and Friday and even Saturday. We'll see mostly rain for the Berkshires on Thursday, but there will be enough cold air in place on Friday to convert the rain to wet snow. We may see as many as 4-5 inches, but more than likely we'll get an inch of slush given how meteorologists have overshot the mark often this winter.

Travel on Friday night could be troublesome if you're out on the town. If the snow does actually intensify, it will fall throughout Friday evening and we'll all wake up on Saturday to a blanket of 2-4 inches of snow (with higher amounts in the higher elevations.)

NWS Albany
But that might not be the end of it. You may not be seeing it on your favorite weather app, but we have heard some rumblings about a classic coastal storm Tuesday night into Wednesday. This one has the potential to be moderate and even heavy. Two storm systems will need to come together to make this happen, but don't be surprised to see the weather alarm bells go off this weekend about a sizable midweek storm. Just saying.

We'll be monitoring next week's storm potential throughout the weekend.

Sunday, March 10, 2019

Winter Weather Advisory; High Winds

Wild March weather continues today. After a gorgeous spring-like day yesterday, Old Man Winter has said, "Not so fast."

The bulk of the snow is over for the morning--2 inches at the GSD Home Office so far--but we could see a period of sleet later in the morning hours that will disrupt travel. And the wind is howling. Gusts up to 50 mph are expected this morning.

There is no threat that this fast-moving storm will affect the start of school tomorrow. Everything will wind down later this afternoon.

As for the week ahead, it's starting to look more like spring. After a coolish start to the week--temps in the 30s on Monday and Tuesday, we should end the work week with temps in the mid-50s. The only real chance for precipitation will be Friday afternoon when we could see some rain showers.

The long-range folks are saying the back half of March should be colder than normal with precipitation at or around normal. This means at least one more major storm is still possible before we close the books on Winter 2018-19.

Monday, March 4, 2019

Nothing But Cold Air

The biggest news today was that the storm--which wasn't as much of a bust as we might have been led to believe--did not generate a single delay or snow day in Berkshire County. We all expected county Superintendents to zig but they zagged.

Given their past records on 3-6 inch snow storms that end before or right around the morning commute, the Superintendents' collective decisions to all have a full day of school reeks of collusion.

(Actually, the real reason is that streets and roads were too warm, and it took several hours for the snow to accumulate on the roads, if it accumulated at all. Road crews didn't have that much snow to move, and they had plenty of time to do it.)

So, we missed this storm about as badly as we've missed one all season. Our apologies. And we won't have an opportunity to get right back on the horse because the next weather-maker will not arrive until Sunday when a mixed bag of precipitation is forecasted to impact our area Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.

What we will see over the next few days is a well-below average cold air mass on top of us. Tuesday won't be too bad (mid 20s) but we will get into the single digits Tuesday night, and Wednesday's highs will only be in the upper teens. We will almost get to 0 degrees on Wednesday night before we see a gradual warm-up to the upper 30s and mid-40s for the weekend.

There may be some stray lake effect snow showers over the next few days but no accumulation is expected.

A near miss.

Delays for Monday, March 4

The snow exited more quickly than expected, so road crews have gotten a jump on clearing the streets. Most schools in Massachusetts have delayed or cancelled school...but not the Berkshires. We have a few delays to report outside the Berkshires, and we'll update this list if there are changes.

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Berlin
Mohawk Trail
New Lebanon
Southwest Vermont SU

Sunday, March 3, 2019

Winter Storm Warning for South County; Advisory for North County

The GSD Staff had a sneaking suspicion that a slight uptick would happen, and the recent information we're seeing and reading shows a more moderate to heavy snow storm for South County and just a moderate storm for Pittsfield and towns to the north. NWS Albany has upgraded South County to a Winter Storm Warning--yes!--and the Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for North County.

The storm should start any minute now (6 PM), if it hasn't started already for you. The snow will be heavy and wet initially, and it should pick up in intensity toward midnight. The storm is a fast-mover, but it is certainly large enough to last into the morning commute. As a result of the bump in the forecasted snow totals, we're going to raise the chance for delay for all schools in the County.

Image courtesy of WNYT Albany Channel 13.
We still think that Southern Berkshire, Farmington River, Berkshire Hills and Lee and Lenox and even Central Berkshire should be in a good position for at least a delay tomorrow, and we cannot rule out a snow day for our school districts down on the Connecticut border.

Students in Adams/Cheshire, Mount Greylock, McCann, Clarksburg and Stamford are less likely to get a delay, but if the storm holds on just a little longer than it's expected to, we'll even see those students enjoy a late start to the day.

NWS Albany's latest forecast.
We recognize that many folks are ready to turn the page and get on to spring. Those of you who were out in the sun today probably felt that warmth that the March sun can bring. It did feel nice. But who really doesn't want a delay on a Monday morning? It's a long, long stretch until we get to April vacation, so we should make the most of these opportunities.

Think snowy thoughts. South County students have generally gotten the short end of the stick this winter, so hopefully this storm will do a little to make up for lost time for them.

Snow Tonight; Some Delays for Monday

The Winter Storm Watch issued yesterday has now become a mere Winter Weather Advisory. We will see snow tonight--and it will last into the Monday morning commute--but it is not going to be the premier snow event we thought it might be last week.

If schools issued delays for the 4-5 inches of fluffy snow we got on Thursday, then the 3-6 inches of snow predicted for tonight should yield many delays tomorrow morning. South County schools will have the better chance for delays, as the farther south and east you go with this storm, the more snow you will see. In fact, Litchfield County in northwest Connecticut has a full Winter Storm Warning for tonight and tomorrow.

NWS Albany

Schools south of Pittsfield will have a better than 50% chance for a delay; schools north of Pittsfield may get shut out but the potential for a delay still exists. There's a chance a district like Southern Berkshire or Farmington River could go for the full snow day if they get 6-7 inches, which is certainly possible.

A big difference between this storm and Thursday's Alberta Clipper will be the density of the snow. As temperatures are relatively high right now, the snow will be heavy and wet. Especially in North County, the snow may even take a while to stick on the roads because the last few days have been over freezing for much of the day.

So, we do expect some delays tomorrow, but they probably won't be county-wide. We strongly suggest students prepare tonight for regular full-length classes or slightly shortened periods. We'll update later if we hear anything about changes to the track of the storm.

Saturday, March 2, 2019

Red Flags for Sunday Night's Storm

Before anyone starts to make plans for how they are going to spend their day off on Monday, we feel obliged to present a few sobering realities:

1. The primary source of energy for this storm is currently in California. That's a lot of distance to cover in a short amount of time, which means a variety of things can go wrong with it.

2.  Check out these two forecasts:



For most storms this past winter, the high end prediction and the low end prediction have been much, much closer together--just 3-4 inches difference typically. To see an 18-inch difference raises an enormous red flag. This set-up has "bust" written all over it.

*       *        *

So even though the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Berkshires for Sunday night into Monday, the GSD staff is suddenly not feeling so great about a sure-thing snow day (based on the reports we read this morning). It all could work out for us in the end, but we urge you to proceed with caution.




Friday, March 1, 2019

Light Snow Saturday; Moderate/Heavy Snow Sunday Night

The weather forecast may be confusing tonight as not one but two storms will hit New England in about a 36-hour period. The first storm will have a low impact on the Berkshires; the second storm appears to be poised to deliver the goods.

The Berkshires may see 2-3 inches during the day tomorrow from a coastal storm that is going to intensify and spread snow in an unusual manner--east to west. Some models see strong intensification but most of the snow will fall over Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts. South County could see up to 4 inches if the storm takes a more northerly track.

As for the more important Sunday evening storm, the European model is the one that is calling for heavy snow for the Berkshires. The North American one is less optimistic and has the storm tracking farther to the south. But the Euro is usually fairly reliable with coastal storms, so we'll put our eggs in that basket this tie. We're still not fully convinced the map below is accurate, and we expect it to change over the next 24 hours. As we indicated yesterday, the track of this storm is still a moving target, so our 8-12 inches could become 3-5 in a hurry.

Image courtesy of NWS Albany.

We'll probably wait until the evening model runs tomorrow night to give you a more serious prediction for Monday, but if we were wagering on this storm, we would be putting just a few dollars on a snow day for Monday for almost all schools in Berkshire County.

Thursday, February 28, 2019

"Real" Storm For Monday?

The Alberta Clipper came through mostly as advertised and dropped 3-6 inches on the Berkshires. Northern Berkshire County--again--appeared to be the winners with most schools north of Pittsfield going with the two-hour sleep in.

Earlier in the week we mentioned the possibility of big bomber next Thursday. Well, we may not have to wait that long for our biggest storm of the season. It could happen as early as Sunday night.

Image courtesy of Accuweather.
Before you get too excited about Accuweather's map, understand that most meteorologists haven't quite settled on what track this storm will take. Today alone we've seen forecast maps that gives 2-4 inches, 5-7 inches, and 9-11 inches, so it's far from a certainty about what is going to happen on Monday.

One of the big things going for this storm is that it's a traditional coastal storm, which we haven't seen in a while. The sleet storms and the Alberta Clippers are all fine, but those are storms with low pressure systems that come across land and often lack the punch of a coastal storm. A coastal storm is a real storm with opportunities for fun words like cyclo- and bombogenesis. You don't get that from a weakling Alberta Clipper.

Sunday night's storm will be all about the track. A shift in the track by 50 miles could greatly impact the amount of snow we get. Because there will be a fair amount of cold air in place over New England, there will be a sharp cut off along the line where the northern edge of the storm and the cold air meet. Those north of the line will see just a few inches; those just to the south of the line will see a moderate to heavy snowfall. The models are all showing a diagonal swath of 6-12 inches of snow (southwest to northeast) somewhere across the Northeast. That swath could center on New York City/Boston or it could center on Bangor/Fredericton (N.B.).

By late Saturday we should have a clearer sense of the track and whether or not Berkshire students will be enjoying a three-day weekend or not.



Delays for Thursday, February 28

Light snow is beginning to taper off in Northern Berkshire County, and we have about 5 inches on the ground at the GSD Home Office. We do have several two-hour delays to report this morning:

TWO-HOUR DELAY [updated at 6:24]

Adams-Cheshire
BART
Childcare of the Berkshires (Centers are open; transportation delayed 2 hours)
Clarksburg
Emma Miller
Gabriel Abbott
Hancock
McCann
Mohawk Trail
Mount Greylock Regional
North Adams
Pine Cobble
Readsboro
Southwest Vermont SU
Stamford

CLOSED

Berkshire Country Day

Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Snow Starts Wednesday Afternoon; Thursday Morning Commute Could Be Messy

The Winter Weather Advisory is still in effect for the Berkshires. NWS Albany now expects the Berkshires to get 5-6 inches of snow, according to this map.

Image courtesy of NWS Albany.
This winter, snow estimates have typically been higher than the amount of snow we actually end up getting, so we urge you to go into this storm with some skepticism. We're just a little nervous about the end of the storm as well. It appears that it might hang on long enough to make the morning commute dicey, but as the snow will be fairly light, road crews will be able to get a jump on clearing the roads before the snow actually stops.

What this means is that cautious Superintendents will likely go with a delay, while Superintendents under pressure due to too much lost time to winter weather may ask families to power through and get to school.

We also have noticed that the forecast is for east-facing slopes to get slightly more snow. This means that school districts in the eastern parts of Berkshire County--Adams/Cheshire, Central Berkshire, Farmington River--have a slightly higher chance for delays than the rest.

WNYT Albany Channel 13's take on this storm.
Look for snow to start between 3 and 5 PM today. We'll run a list in the morning if schools begin to call in. Also, because this disturbance is not a major one, we do not expect any districts to call in their delays this evening, but this winter has been a wacky one, and we at GSD have learned never to rule out the unexpected.

Tuesday, February 26, 2019

Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday Night

The National Weather Service has announced a Winter Weather Advisory for tomorrow evening that will end at 6 AM on Thursday. We are expecting 3-5 inches (starting around 6 PM), but we have a sneaky feeling that some higher elevations will get half a foot of very fluffy, easily shovel-able snow.

We did notice that NWS Albany thinks the end of the storm will be closer to the morning commute. That is great news for those of you desperate for a delay this week. There's nothing worse than a full week of school after a vacation.

In a semi-weather-related note, Mount Greylock Regional High School will be closed yet again tomorrow due to issues with power to the building. #SchoolinJuly #Sad.

We'll have an update about chances for delays on Thursday during the day tomorrow.

GSD approves this image. Thanks NWS Albany, for providing it.


Alberta Clipper Will Blanket the Berkshires

As expected, the wind storm was intense enough to have caused delays and cancellations for today. The damage across the region was fairly severe, and over 5000 homes in the county were without power at the storm's peak yesterday. Wind gusts in the 60s and approaching 70 mph were reported throughout the County. That's an unusually severe windstorm, not only at this time of year but any time of year.

We have a much less dangerous storm to deal with on Wednesday night. It's a good old-fashioned and harmless Alberta Clipper that will hustle through our area tomorrow night. Because the air is so cold, snow-to-liquid ratios are expected to be very high with this one, so it will generate 3-5 inches of fluffy white goodness despite the relatively low amount of liquid associated with this storm.

Image courtesy of NWS Albany.

Given the light density and the relative early end to the snow--3 AM Thursday by our accounts--we probably will only see delays on Thursday. This one should be standard fare for road crews, and this late in the season they are in their groove, so we don't expect widespread delays at this point in the run-up.

We are holding out hope the storm slows down just enough to make the morning commute more complicated and to add to the growing number of delay days this winter, which seems to be approaching historic numbers.

Monday, February 25, 2019

Delays and Closings for Tuesday, Feb. 26

A few schools have called in delays for today due to the wild weather yesterday. Here is the updated list:

[Updated: 7:50 AM]

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Adams-Cheshire
Gabriel Abbott Memorial
Mohawk Trail
Pine Cobble

CLOSED:

Berkshire Country Day
Mount Greylock Regional High School (only the HS; not a full district delay)

Wild Winds; Snow for Wednesday/Thursday

[UPDATED Delay list below.]

What a windstorm! Gusty winds all day long have knocked down many branches and trees, and many areas either experienced or are experiencing power outages. Electric company crews have spotted all over Berkshire County getting folks back on the grid. A gust over 60 mph was recorded at the Albany airport, and--get this--the wind speed hit 162 mph on the top of Mount Washington.

Winds will eventually die down tonight. We also may see a stray snow shower or two from the lake effects snows across New York state. It's certainly possible a school or two (in addition to Gabriel Abbott) could delay or cancel tomorrow due to a prolonged power outage.

We have some better news about the midweek snow event. The predicted amount of precipitation is supposed to be a little higher, so we may see 2-5 inches. If we're on the high side of that prediction, we'll definitely see delays on Thursday. It's only an Alberta Clipper, and they typically never have much moisture to work with and usually don't last that long, but as of today it's trending in a better direction.

Lastly, we are hearing rumblings about a big one for later next week (Thursday?). The Euro model is showing a coastal storm with at least a foot of snow for the Berkshires. Keep that on the down-low, though, as we don't want to ramp up the hype machine just yet.

We'll post a report in the morning if any schools call in. Also, you'll need the heavy winter coat tomorrow. The high might hit 20 and the leftover winds will make it seem much colder than that.

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Gabriel Abbott Memorial



Delays for Monday, Feb. 25

High winds and light snow this morning has forced at least one local delay. Southwest Vermont Supervisory Union has a two-hour delay as do a few schools in the Springfield area.

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Southwest Vermont SU

Sunday, February 24, 2019

High Wind Warning for Monday

We might need to take this High Wind Warning a little more seriously, as we could see gusts over 60 mph in the Berkshires especially in the eastern slopes and higher elevations towns.

With some areas of the Berkshires still with ice on the trees, power outages could cause a few schools to call in delays, cancel school or send students home early tomorrow. While we do not think delays or early releases are probable, some schools may need to shorten the school day or cancel because they have no power.

Courtesy of NWS Albany.

The peak of the winds should be between midnight and noon tomorrow. Watch for branches on roads, and make sure you're covered up if you go outside as the wind chill factors will be much lower than normal due to the high winds.

Take a peak here tomorrow morning just in case we get a few call-ins.

What To Expect This Week (Feb. 25)

Vacation week is over and now we enter that long grind between the February and April vacations. Last year we had a ridiculously snowy March, so there still is plenty of winter left. Long-range models do suggest a stormy start to the month.

A temperature forecast map for the first part of March. You can't have snow without cold air.

As for this week, expect a very windy Monday and light snow Wednesday night into Thursday and also more light snow Friday into Saturday. Neither of the chances for snow is a certainty, but we do know that there isn't much liquid expected for either disturbance. We can't rule out delays on Thursday, but it will only yield a single-digit number on the Confidence Meter.

Tomorrow, you might see some very strong wind gusts. We have a High Wind Warning in place, and some gusts could near 60 mph. Be safe out there!

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

Winter Weather Advisory: Early Thursday, Feb. 21

We have a Winter Weather Advisory in place this evening and into early Thursday. The issue isn't the snow--only a few inches--but the sleet that is expected to fall once the temps get above freezing.

The Monday morning commute could be slow.

As all the public schools are off this week, the only announcement we have is for Childcare of the Berkshires. They will open on time but their transportation will be running on a two-hour delay.

Should other independent schools phone in delays, we'll post them here tomorrow morning.

Sunday, February 17, 2019

Winter Weather Advisory for Monday, Feb. 18

Most students have vacation this week, but those who have to work should be aware that tomorrow's commute will be slower due to a light snowfall expected to blanket the Berkshires.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for our region. The reason it isn't a Winter Storm Watch or Warning is there simply isn't enough moisture to warrant it.

We should see snow start to fall around 10 or 11 PM tonight and it will last into the late morning hours on Monday. Everyone in the County should see 3-4 inches of snow. It will be just cold enough to make this an all snow event.

Image courtesy of NWS Albany.
As for future storms, we're looking at a snow/mixed precipitation storm for Thursday and then possibly something more substantial on Sunday. The Thursday storm is a less organized version of the one we had last week, and the Sunday storm has the potential to be a more organized and thus more potent storm. But, as always, it's way too early to know for certain.

Allow extra time on the way to work tomorrow morning.

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Icing Roads Tonight

Roads tomorrow morning could be icy due to the melting and the bands of snow showers we received this afternoon. Streets around the GSD Home Office are still messy, and with temps dipping all the way to the low 20s, we could see icy patches.

And with icy patches, you might get a delay or two. Just saying.

As for snow, maybe light snow Sunday night into Monday and most meteorologists are keeping their eyes on a larger end of week storm during vacation.

Next week's storm. Image courtesy of Judah Cohen (@judah47)

Wednesday Delays

Roads are slush-covered this morning as a very light freezing drizzle continues to lift out of Berkshire County. Most of the precipitation with this storm has ended, but we should see a few snow showers throughout the day as temps rise to the mid-30s.

Here is the list of schools that have called in delays:

TWO-HOUR DELAY [updated 6:27]:

Adams-Cheshire
BART
Bement School
Bennington College (10 AM opening)
Berkshire Country Day
Berkshire Hills
Berlin
Brunswick
Childcare of the Berkshires (opening on time; transportation only delayed 2 hours)
Farmington River Regional
Hancock
Hoosick Falls
McCann
Mohawk Trail
Mount Greylock Regional
New Lebanon
North Adams
Readsboro
Richmond
Southern Berkshire
Stamford
Williams College (10:30 opening; Children's Center open at 10:00)

SNOW DAY

Berkshire Waldorf
Southwest Vermont SU

Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Sleet & Snow Continue -- Delays for Wednesday

The storm is still cranking along and essentially behaving the way it was predicted it would behave. We had the initial dump of moderate and heavy snow this afternoon before the corn snow/sleet kicked in around 6 PM at the GSD Home Office. Currently, we have 5.0 inches of snow in Williamstown.

There is a large dry slot to our southwest, but light precipitation continues to fall throughout the County and should continue to do so almost to daybreak. While accumulation will be light the rest of the night, the wind has kicked up and we should see 1-2 more inches of sleet and snow by the morning commute.

8:30 PM radar. All of this precip is moving northeast. The dry slot will move over us around midnight, but sleet and snow will kick up again between 2 AM and 5 AM.
Because of the terrible road conditions, some schools are starting to call in delays. Given how this storm is hanging around, we think most schools will have at least a delay tomorrow. Some schools in South County might by lucky losers, but most Superintendents will see it fit to give families an extra two hours to dig out and de-ice.

Here's our list so far:

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Berlin NY
Brunswick NY
Readsboro VT
Stamford VT
Williams College (10:30 opening; Children's Center open at 10:00)

Storm Update: Delay, Snow Days or Nothing for Wednesday?

Forecast models hit the nail on the head with the timing of the start of the snow. With moderate snow coming down throughout Berkshire County (as of 1:00 PM), Superintendents got this one right with their decision to send students home early. And you take back that joke you just made about blind squirrels finding nuts every once in a while. That simply is not nice.

Despite the moderate snow right now, we are not feeling great about snow days for tomorrow. Because this storm is complex with its double-barreled low pressure systems, we're just not sure how the second phase of the storm is going to play out after the sleet starts falling. We are supposed to see a return to snow after the sleet portion, and that snow should be falling during the morning commute tomorrow. The second round of snow will give us an additional 1-2 inches, and throw in the sleet and the high winds we wrote about yesterday, one would think that a delayed start would be prudent and build up more good-will capital with the Supers' constituents.

Still on track for half a foot. Image courtesy of NWS Albany.
Don't get your hopes up about snow days' getting called in this evening. With the heavy snow coming to a close around 7 or 8 PM, we'll all shift into "wait-and-see" mode through the evening and tomorrow morning to see how the back half of the storm behaves.

The official GSD position is delays are likely and full snow days are possible but unlikely. Schools in North County, southern Vermont, and the east-facing slopes of the Berkshires will have slightly better chances for delays and/or snow days.

We'll see if we can find a few snow totals to report later this evening, and we'll keep gathering intel to learn what it might be doing tomorrow morning.

Lastly, if you want a simple to understand video on the polar vortex and how it impacts our winter weather, check out this little gem by meteorologist Judah Cohen.

Early Releases for Tuesday

Expect the snow to start falling between 11 AM and 1 PM today, and it should come down at a rate of 1-2 inches per hour for a stretch before we see a changeover to sleet around 8 PM. After that, we're less certain that the precipitation will continue into the morning hours, so we'll update our Confidence Meter about delays and snow days later today.

EARLY RELEASE for today:

Adams-Cheshire
BART
Berkshire Christian
Berkshire Country Day
Berkshire Hills
Berkshire Waldorf
Central Berkshire
Clarksburg
Emma Miller
Farmington River
Gabriel Abbott
Hancock
Hoosick Falls
Housatonic Academy
Lee
Lenox
Mohawk Trail
Mount Greylock Regional
North Adams
Pine Coble
Pittsfield
Richmond
Southwest Vermont Supervisory Union
Stamford

Childcare of the Berkshires -- No Transportation

Monday, February 11, 2019

Early Releases and Maps

Things are trending in the right direction for this storm. We have early releases coming in; we had the upgrade from Watch to Warning; the storm is expected to last through the morning commute on Wednesday. The only thing that is giving us pause is the nose of warm air that will force its way in late on Tuesday night and give us sleet and, potentially, end the storm several hours too early for our desires for a snow day on Wednesday.

Here is the list of early releases:

EARLY RELEASE [updated 8:47 PM]:

Adams-Cheshire
BART
Berkshire Christian
Berkshire Country Day
Berkshire Hills
Central Berkshire
Clarksburg
Emma Miller
Farmington River
Gabriel Abbott
Hancock
Hoosick Falls
Housatonic Academy
Lee
Lenox
Mohawk Trail
Mount Greylock Regional
North Adams
Pittsfield
Richmond
Southwest Vermont Supervisory Union
Stamford

Childcare of the Berkshires -- No Transportation

And here are host of maps, in order from good to great:

Less encouraging but will probably be the most accurate. Channel 13 Albany WNYT.

Boston is always a little out of touch with the Berkshires. Channel 7 Boston WHDH.

Channel 22 Springfield WWLP.

Channel 6 Albany WRGB.

More inches = more clicks. The Weather Channel.

Early Releases for Tuesday, Feb. 12

**We've been upgraded. The Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to noon on Wednesday. Six to 10 inches of snow plus high winds.** [updated 5:51 PM]

Please see our previous post for particulars about the timing, precipitation types, and amount of snow expected for tomorrow's storm. But the good news is that a few schools nearby have called in for early releases for Tuesday. With the storm forecasted to start before the close of school, we won't be surprised to see this list grow this evening. It's almost assured that all afternoon and evening activities will be cancelled tomorrow.

As early releases are more taxing on families, most releases should be called in tonight, not tomorrow morning.

We'll continue to update this list, and we'll offer up one more assessment and some maps later this evening.

EARLY RELEASE:

Central Berkshire
Emma Miller
Gabriel Abbott
Hoosick Falls
Farmington River
Mohawk Trail
Southwest Vermont Supervisory Union

Winter Storm Update -- Midday Report

While our friends to the north have been upgraded from the Watch to the Warning, Berkshire County still has only the Watch in place. If we are to get the upgrade, it will happen for Northern Berkshire only.

Most maps we're seeing are showing 3-6" for South County and 6-9" for the northern half. We will also see sleet force its way in at some point--probably closer to midnight--which will suppress our snow totals.

Image courtesy of NWS Albany.
NWS Albany tells us that the snow will start in Berkshire County at noon tomorrow. That piece of information could lead schools to call for the early release. We're as curious as you are about how Superintendents will react to this forecast. Given the extra-precaution we saw with the freeze days and delays, we will not be at all surprised to see several early releases announced tonight for Tuesday.

As for our snow day chances on Wednesday, the storm is expected to taper off in the morning hours. But a big factor could be the wind. We have a Wind Advisory up for Berkshire County, with wind gusts up to 50 mph expected. If these gusts are prevalent when the Supers wake up on Wednesday, the blowing of snow will create enough of a hazard for road crews and bus drivers to warrant delays (at the least) and full snow days (at best).

The threat of warm air moving into the area after the initial onslaught of snow has us feeling hesitant about across the board delays and snow days for Wednesday. The period of moderate and heavy snow will end relatively early, so it will be up to the sleet and lingering snow bursts to get us to the promised land, which is a very tenuous situation to be in.

We'll have updated info and several maps later this afternoon and/or tonight.

Sunday, February 10, 2019

Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday & Wednesday

Snow and sleet are headed our way on Tuesday, and the National Weather Service thinks we'll get at least half a foot so it has announced a Winter Storm Watch starting at 10 AM Tuesday and lasting through noon on Wednesday.

Initially, we did not like the timing on this storm, but the last few runs of the models have slowed it down so it is likely we'll see snow or sleet into the morning commute on Wednesday. Most estimates indicate 6-8 inches for northern Berkshire County and 4-6 in South County. These numbers could easily change significantly in either direction as the track of the storm will determine how much snow we get--and when we changeover to sleet for a time. The changeover is highly likely, and we don't like that.

Image courtesy of NWS Albany
This storm is no slam-dunk nor'easter. It is a complicated storm because there are two low pressure systems involved--a "double-barrel low" as they say in meteorological parlance--and it's not always clear how the first low will impact the second one.

If this storm hits a home run, then we're looking at an early release on Tuesday followed by a full snow day on Wednesday. If it hits a little dribbler to the mound, we might see a few delays in the higher elevation towns but everyone else will see a full day of school.

So let's aim right for the head pin on this one and go with a few releases on Tuesday and everyone on Wednesday morning getting a delay or full snow day. That's the official GSD position at the nonce, but it will change as we get closer to the storm and better understand the impact the sleet will have on this storm.

Check back in tomorrow for more sub-optimal sports metaphors and updated information about our approaching storm.


Thursday, February 7, 2019

Big Storm Next Week

After a 10-day semi-break from Winter, it looks like the Old Man will return on Saturday and into next week. After a rainy Friday, we'll see more seasonal temps in the 20s on Saturday, and then things get very interesting for the middle of next week, the week before our annual February vacation.

We pause for a moment to discuss your weather app on your phone. The weather apps these days are wonderful. At GSD we love the Weather Underground app. But you cannot get too excited about the long-range predictions with them. Their algorithms are fine, but they often miss the mark with the long-range forecasts. Please continue to use them but focus on their 48-hour forecasts.

We are seeing many signs that we'll have a plowable storm to contend with in the middle next week. A storm will slip into the Northwest this weekend, and that piece of energy will eventually make its way across the continental US and impact New England Tuesday and Wednesday (and maybe Thursday). Currently, some models show that the storm will slip a little too far to our north and not have a major impact on us, but other models are hinting that the main low pressure system will drop far enough south to give us a strong New England storm.

Thanks to the Cranky Weather Guy (@crankywxguy) for this image.


We're too far out to know for sure what is going to happen, but we are optimistic about some kind of delay or snow day for Wednesday. Yoha!

We will be tracking this storm all weekend and cannot wait to see how it develops--we have a good feeling. Even though a week of vacation looms, few people we know will complain about a midweek snow day as we head into vacation.

Check in over the weekend as we'll post new information as soon as we have good intel about the approaching New England storm.

Delays for Thursday, February 7

We do have a few delays to report this morning due to icing. Here they are:

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Central Berkshire
Mohawk Trail
Readsboro

Wednesday, February 6, 2019

Ice Is Nice--Winter Weather Advisory for Feb. 6/7

Greetings, all you flake followers. Tonight GSD is going to transition you to freezing rain followers, as The National Weather Service in Albany has announced a Winter Weather Advisory for the Berkshires and surrounding locations for a possibly moderate ice storm.

The Advisory is in effect from 5 PM tonight to 10 AM tomorrow, but we doubt we'll see precipitation linger that long into the morning.

While this advisory sounds good on its surface, it is only an advisory and the temperature may simply be too high to produce widespread icing. If we do see icing, it will be in higher elevation areas in the Berkshires.

Image courtesy of NWS Albany.
Even though the GSD Staff does not have a lot of confidence in this storm, we will still hold out hope for delays tomorrow morning. The Tuesday Pittsfield school system delay was an unexpected one, so anything is possible, especially if your school is above 1000 feet of elevation. The usual high-elevation towns have a significantly higher chance for delays tomorrow.

Predicting ice is much more of a crapshoot than predicting snow. The models are improving in their ability to forecast ice, but the temperature window for ice is so narrow that these ice forecasts often go wrong.

Still, driving could be dicey tonight (especially around midnight) and tomorrow morning. We will of course track those delays when/if they are called in.

Thursday, January 31, 2019

Freeze Delays, Friday Edition [UPDATED]

Minus 4 at the Home Office. Freeze Delays have been announced the following schools and districts:

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Adams-Cheshire
BART
Berkshire Hills
Central Berkshire
Clarksburg
Farmington River
Gabriel Abbott Memorial
Hancock
Housatonic Academy
Lee
Lenox
McCann
Mt. Greylock Regional
North Adams
Pittsfield
Richmond Consolidated
Southern Berkshire Regional
Stamford VT

**Childcare of the Berkshires (Open Regular Hours; transportation 2-hour delay)**

CLOSED:

Berkshire Waldorf

Wind Chill Advisory Extended to Friday

Today's widespread closing and delays due to cold temperatures have caused us at GSD to recalibrate our formula for predicting Freeze Days. There is no question the national news cycle and its predictions about once-in-a-lifetime low temperatures in the Midwest had a spillover effect on the skin thickness of our beloved Superintendents and bus company operators.

[It's taking all of our strength to not be that guy. You know that guy. That neighborhood old guy who has a "Back In My Day" tattoo.]

So let's move on to Friday morning. Tomorrow morning will be slightly warmer--temps around 0 for most Berkshirites--but the breeze will make it feel 6-8 degrees colder than that. Given that forecast, we can't rule out a few delays tomorrow. Even though these are essentially the exact words we wrote yesterday around this time, we really mean it this time.

What about a real snow storm? you might ask. When is that going to happen? As we look into our meteorological crystal ball, we do not like what we are seeing. Temps are going to zoom all the way into the 50s by Tuesday before coming back down to the 20s by the weekend. If we're going to get a delay next week, it will be on Friday. The chance for a snow day next week is somewhere between 0 and 1 percent.

February vacation is only 11 school days away. We will likely get shut out next week, but during the week of the 11th we will see colder temperatures and an above average chance for precipitation as we get closer to the break.

We'll run a delay list if and when those calls come in.

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Freeze Days and Delays

[updated a 6:49 AM]

FREEZE DAY:

Adams-Cheshire
BART
Berkshire Waldorf HS
Central Berkshire
Clarksburg
Emma Miller Memorial
Gabriel Abbott Memorial
Hancock
Housatonic Academy
Lee
Lenox
Mount Greylock Regional
North Adams
Northern Berkshire (McCann)
Pine Cobble
Pittsfield

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Berkshire Country Day
Berkshire Hills
Farmington River Regional
Readsboro
Richmond Consolidated
Southern Berkshire
Stamford VT

ONE-HOUR DELAY:

Child Care of the Berkshires (and no transportation)

Snow Squalls Today

Later today, keep an eye out for high winds and band of intense snow squalls. This is a strong line of snow and could dump a quick 2 inches on Berkshire County some time between 3 and 5 PM.

And we'll just have to see about Freeze Delays tomorrow. After today's disappointing results, we're not feeling as optimistic. Temps will definitely be below zero, and it will be breezy. Some schools will opt for the delay, but we don't think we'll see a county-wide clean sweep. So much of this decision depends on the bus company and if it thinks its buses will need more time.

Squalls are coming.


Snow Ending; Deep Cold Edges Closer; Delay Updates

A few snow showers are lingering, but the storm is essentially over. Temps will fall throughout the day today, eventually bottoming out around -5 for most folks tomorrow morning. The wind will kick up as well making for a most unpleasant start to the day.

We have just a few delays for schools in and around Berkshire County this morning

TWO-HOUR DELAY [updated 5:31 AM]

Farmington River
Hoosick Falls, NY
Mohawk Trail
New Lebanon, NY

Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Snow Has Arrived (Evening Report)

The forecast is still essentially the same for this moderate Winter Storm, and we're still on track for half a foot in the Berkshires. Moderate snow has overspread the area (as of 6 PM). Unfortunately, the storm is expected to come to a close around 2 or 3 AM. Unless we get some very heavy bands of snow--the 1- to 2-inch per hour bands--we'll stay on the low end of the predicted snowfall total and end up with 6-7 inches.

Image courtesy of NWS Albany.
We know you want a snow day tomorrow--and it will be snowing hard when you go to bed tonight--but road crews are going to have time to get on the roads hours before the morning commute. However, a complicating factor for tomorrow are snow squalls, which will form as the storm departs our region, But we probably won't see those squalls until later in the morning. Alas, travel from 7 AM to 9 AM will be slow but the roads will be passable.

So, we think about 40% of students will get to enjoy a late start tomorrow. Likely candidates: North County schools along the Vermont border, Central Berkshire, and Farmington River. Schools in higher elevation towns and those in the eastern part of the Berkshires should see more snow, thus they will have a better chance at a delay. We also can not rule out 1 or 2 full snow days due to extenuating circumstances. And many schools in Southern Vermont will have full snow days.

We like your style, Channel 6 Albany!
We'll have our list running early tomorrow. Tonight the Staff's computers will be shutdown for a few hours for regularly schedule maintenance--access to GSD will not be affected--and then we'll be back up and running again by about 10 PM should there be any breaking weather news.

Winter Storm Warning for Tuesday, Jan. 29

We have gotten the upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning, but that is not going to lead to a boost in the True North Confidence Meter.

We can not emphasize enough how completely terrible the timing of this storm is. It will arrive too late to necessitate early releases, and it will finish too early to impact the school day Wednesday. This is a 12-hour event, and while the snow will come down moderately for many of those hours, road crews will have more than enough time to clear off roads for most school districts by the start of the morning commute.

We will still see a few delays, but more students will be in school for a full day on Wednesday than those with a late start.

After school activities will likely be cancelled today. Image courtesy of NWS Albany.
If anything changes, we'll let you know.

Monday, January 28, 2019

Plowable Snow on Tuesday, Jan. 29th

The Winter Storm Watch is still in effect for North and South County from tomorrow afternoon to Wednesday morning, even though the storm will long be over by the morning commute on Wednesday.

We were hoping for the upgrade to the Winter Storm Warning, but some of the models showed lower-than-anticipated liquid precipitation forecasts for our area. Of course we are holding out hope that Berkshire weather headlines go from -TCH to -RNING after the next run of the models later tonight. Our friends in the Adirondacks and Bennington County did get the Warning upgrade, so we're at least in the ballpark.

Not that it matters that much for cancellations and delays because the timing on this one is el stinko. It will likely start after school tomorrow and finish up by 3 or 4 AM on Wednesday. A big hearty "boo" to that.

So, the Staff is not feeling great about this storm. In fact, if we were betting people, and we had to pick Wednesday or Thursday as the better chance for a delay, we would go with Freeze Delay on Thursday. We are definitely not ruling out delays on Wednesday--especially for those schools in higher terrains--but this is not a (fairly) predictable nor'easter-type of storm.

Here are a couple of maps showing the slightly lower confidence with this storm than we saw this morning:

Image courtesy of WRGB Albany.

Image courtesy of WNYT Albany.



Winter Storm Watch: Tuesday/Wednesday (Jan 29-30)

Overnight, the National Weather Service announced a Winter Storm Watch for the Berkshires and surrounding areas, especially to our north and northeast.

The current expected onset is around 1 PM Tuesday, and the storm should end around 4 AM Wednesday. Potentially, say the experts, we will see 6 to 10 inches of snow. The Berkshires would be on the lower end of that prediction, especially in South County.

We don't like the timing of this storm one bit, but we do like the more aggressive number of inches predicted to fall.

We'll check in with our usual cast of knowledgeable types throughout the day and deliver a more complete report in the early afternoon. But here's one map to feast on in the interim.

Image courtesy of NWS Albany.

Sunday, January 27, 2019

Active Week Ahead: Snow and Cold

This week will be a lively one with snow and a deep drop in temperatures expected to descend upon the Berkshires.

Tuesday will be the snowiest day of the week. The timing and the predicted snowfall totals do not appear to be conducive to school closings, but we are holding out hope that the length of the school day will be impacted in some way, shape or form. Light snow should begin falling in the morning on Tuesday, and then heavier snow comes down later in the afternoon and early evening. We're not talking about a lot of snow here--unless the storm gains more strength as it deepens off the coast.

If we're on the low side, will see 2-4 inches; if it strengthens we'll see 6-8 inches, especially north of Pittsfield. Still, the timing is not ideal and road crews would have ample time to clear up the highways and byways by Wednesday morning. We might see a few delays on Wednesday but that's about the size of it. What's more likely to happen is after school activities will be cancelled for Tuesday.

Image courtesy of Accuweather.
Right after the Tuesday storm, we'll be in wait-and-see mode on Thursday morning for Freeze Delays. Brutally cold air will overspread the Berkshires on Wednesday night, and we'll be well below zero for the Thursday commute. Conditions will be very similar to our most recent Freeze Delay (last Tuesday) so, logically, we should see many delays.

Thursday, January 24, 2019

Delays for Friday, Jan. 25

Another dicey morning for Berkshire County buses is on tap. for Friday With the heavy rain today and subsequent changeover to snow, there are many icy patches out there and some schools may need to delay the start of school. We don't think delays will be the norm, but a few more schools may call in.

Here's the latest:

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Gabriel Abbott Memorial


We are looking closely at two storms for next week. One could hit Tuesday/Wednesday and the other will arrive at the end of the week. The second storm might not impact any school days, but we're going to monitor both storms intently.

Delays for Thursday, Jan. 24

Temperatures have not risen as high as expected, and many low-lying areas are seeing patches of ice. As a result, a few districts and schools have called in delays this morning.

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Housatonic Academy
Pittsfield
Richmond Consolidated
Southwest Vermont SU

We might see a changeover to snow later this afternoon, which could give us a quick inch or so, and then the temps will drop below freezing, which could make for slick conditions Friday morning. Drive safely out there--today is a mess.

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday, Jan. 23

As is usually the case, the freeze day snuck up on us, and many Superintendents and Principals made the call to delay the start of school or, in the notable case of Pittsfield, cancel for the day. We thought that there would be a delay or two, but to see 75% of the County start late or close was surprising.

It was very cold out there, but as a society we are becoming more and more cautious about these kinds of weather events. The more information we have, the more risk averse we are becoming.

Superintendents do not have to wait long to make another weather-related decision. NWS Albany has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for tomorrow. Temps did not get up to 20 today, as was forecasted, so enough cold air will be in place to cause ice tomorrow when the next weather system rolls into Berkshire County.

Fortunately for Superintendents, the timing of the WWA is between 9 AM and 6 PM. Some schools may have to cancel after school activities if the sleet and freezing rain holds on through the afternoon, but the GSD Staff thinks the changeover to plain ol' rain will occur before the release of the afternoon buses. Driving in higher elevation towns could be tricky tomorrow afternoon, so take it slow in those places that are slow to warm up.

Temps right now (early evening Tuesday) are as low as they are going to get for the next three and half days. We are forecasted to shoot way up into the mid 40s tomorrow and even hit 50 on Thursday before the cold air creeps back in and returns us to our normal (for this time of year) mid/high 20s on Friday. We could see a brief period of snow midday on Thursday as the rain tapers and the cold air seeps in.

Forecast map for early next week (Monday through Wednesday). The blue represents between .5 and .75 inches of liquid, which would mean about a 6-9 inch snowfall. Light blue is 9-12 inches.

We still have our feelers out for a big storm early next week. The weather pattern is much more complicated for next week, which is why the models have not come to a consensus as they did with this past weekend's storm. Enough pieces are in place to give us a coastal storm/nor'easter, but we wouldn't put a lot of stock in that prediction right yet. Many things need to fall into place for that to happen.

If a big storm does happen, it should occur on either Monday or Tuesday (or both) of next week. And we'll be continuing to monitor it so you don't have to.

Freeze Delays -- Tuesday, Jan. 22

It's a balmy -6 degrees at the GSD Home Office this morning.

TWO-HOUR DELAY [updated 6:07AM]

Adams-Cheshire Regional
BART Charter
Central Berkshire
Childcare of the Berkshires (centers will open on time but buses will be on a two-hour delay)
Clarksburg
Farmington River
Florida
Gabriel Abbott Memorial
Hancock
Lee
McCann
Mohawk Trail Regional
Mount Greylock Regional
New Lebanon
North Adams
Readsboro
Richmond Consolidated
Southwest Vermont Supervisory Union
Stamford

FREEZE DAY:

Berkshire Christian
Berkshire Waldorf
Emma Miller Memorial
Pittsfield

Monday, January 21, 2019

Freeze Delays for Tuesday, Jan. 22

**FREEZE DELAY UPDATES BELOW**

So now that the big (semi-) storm has passed, it's time to focus on weathermakers that could impact the length of our school day. And it looks like we need to look no further than tomorrow morning.

Freeze delays are in play for several districts tomorrow morning. With the forecast for subzero temps and gusty winds still in the forecast, waiting for buses will be uncomfortable. Several districts have already called in delays for Tuesday, which we will continue to monitor this evening and tomorrow morning.

As for actual snow and ice, it looks like we'll just miss with a mostly rainstorm on Wednesday/Thursday, but then there is lots of meteorological chatter about a big coastal event somewhere in the January 27-30 window. All the long-range models are telling the weather experts that we're in an active storm period, and the cold should persist through the end of February. We're guessing that February will be the big snow month of the season, but the end of January could be very active.

We'll update the delays for tomorrow as they come in.

TWO-HOUR DELAY [updated 7:20 PM]

Adams-Cheshire Regional
BART Charter
Central Berkshire
Childcare of the Berkshires (centers will open on time but buses will be on a two-hour delay)
Clarksburg
Emma Miller Memorial
Farmington River
Florida
Gabriel Abbott Memorial
Hancock
McCann
Mohawk Trail Regional
Mount Greylock Regional
North Adams
Pittsfield
Richmond Consolidated
Southwest Vermont Supervisory Union
Stamford

Friday, January 18, 2019

Map-o-Ganza! (Jan. 19)


Kudos to reader Sarah Thurston Housman's "Baby Shark" comment on Facebook for this menacing beauty by Henry Margusity. Doo doo doo doo doo, indeed. We will be swimming in snow come Sunday.


Twelve to eighteen is acceptable, but 14 to 24 inches? Come on, Channel 13, you're better than that. Imagine if GSD threw out a 0 to 10 inch prediction; you would not stand for it. And that bottom right corner is just plain lazy.


Channel 7 gets either the "Trying Too Hard Award" or "Not Trying Enough Award." In lieu of predictions numbers: Green--this is what you get for owning beach front property and having amazing summers. Off-white--Hire someone to clean off your snow--you can afford it. Light blue-- Light blue, light snow, light night. Blue--This is Patriots Country--Go Pats!; Pink--The trendy choice for moderate snow. Orange--Sound the alarm, raid to the grocery store, hide the children and small pets--we're going to need a bigger refrigerator!


The difference between this map from Channel 5 and Channel 7's map is the difference between a paid and an unpaid intern.



The individual progressions makes a certain amount of sense--purple to pink, pink deep red/maroon--but taken as a whole this map is tough on the eyeballs The numbers, though, are appealing, which is redeemable.


The Weather Channel. The Crown Jewel of weather map artistry. So many layers and subtleties. Logical and graceful. Magnifique! (And the the 2-3 feet prediction isn't bad either!)

Bring on the Storm

No news is bad news this morning. No delays or cancellations. The cold air mass was just too much for this weak little system. We may get a few snow showers and dusting this morning, but it won't amount to much and should not impede the ride home from school.

The only thing left to do is get excited for the big storm. Many events that were planned for Sunday have been cancelled, and that's the right call. Buckle up, it's going to be a big one.

Storm start times, per NWS Albany.

Map-o-Ganza will come out later this morning.

Thursday, January 17, 2019

Winter Storm Watch for Saturday (Jan. 19)

All of the noise about the big weekend storm is drowning out tomorrow morning's possible delay producer, but that's not a terrible thing as this minor system seems to losing some of its steam as it inches toward the Berkshires out of the Ohio Valley.

We still may see a 1 or 2 inches by Friday morning, but the chance that it gives us 4 inches is dwindling. As we said yesterday, the cold air will make it hard for the moisture to get to the ground, and there isn't much liquid to work with anyway. So...we're not as pumped about widespread delays as we were earlier in the week.

The X factor tomorrow is the mindset of your Superintendent. Many Supers in the northern part of the County caught a lot of heat for last Wednesday's debacle (no fault of their own). The timing and the high rate of snow fall smack dab during the morning commute really made making the right call almost impossible. So, a few Supers may still be reeling from that episode and take a more delay-friendly approach. But it will still need to be snowing between 4 AM and 6 AM for that to happen and right now that's a definite maybe.

In other news you probably have heard about...a Winter Storm Watch was posted this morning for the weekend blockbuster. The Berkshires, especially North County, could be in the jackpot zone for this storm. Someone in New England is going to get 2 feet from this storm, and it could be us. We do not recommend you make any travel plans for Sunday.

As for timing, look for light snow around 5 PM on Saturday and then it's just going to pick up in intensity and finally let up late in the afternoon or early evening on Sunday. A tidy but powerful 24-hour storm. Sleet may mix in midday on Sunday.

Cleaning up all the snow is going to be made even more miserable because of the brutally cold temps on the back end of this storm. The high on Monday will be in the low single digits with some folks in the County not getting above 0 for the day. Throw in a steady 15-20 MPH wind and you have yourself dangerous conditions for warm-blooded mammals to be outside.

Here are some fun maps to tide you over until tomorrow's Map-o-Ganza. And tomorrow we'll be running the ol' GSD Delay and Cancellation list should we hear of any.

Image courtesy of Henry Margusity's Weather Madness blog.
NWS Albany

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Storms Still On Track

The good news is there really isn't much new news. We're not seeing too much variance in the model runs from the last few days. This high level of model agreement is unusual and is often indicative of a sure-bet snow storm.

Sadly, though, our snow totals are down for our Friday morning event. Grrr. The cold air will limit the moisture in a big way so we may get 3 inches at most for Friday morning. That's still enough for many delays for Friday--especially because the timing is so good--but we're not as excited as we were, say, yesterday.

Not going to lie--we do not like this map (for Friday morning). But thanks anyway, NWS Albany.
The big storm this weekend should be a big storm. We may see light snow as early as noon on Saturday, and it will be light until Saturday evening. The first part of the storm will bring heavy snow Saturday night, then as the low pressure systems combine and re-form off the coast, we will see more heavy snow with sleet and even freezing rain mixing in during the day on Sunday. Snow totals will be high with this storm even with the sleet and freezing rain. If the storm tracks more to our east, which is a possibility, we'll see all snow.

We think this map is just a tad ambitious, but it's only one weather outlet's perspective.

Hold on to your hats. Image courtesy of Weather Underground.
Many more details to follow tomorrow about Friday morning and the weekend's storm track and timing.