A snow day literally and figuratively falls from the sky, unbidden, and seems like a thing of wonder. -- Susan Orlean

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Storm Delilah Is Heading Our Way

Hat tip to the faithful followers of the flake for selecting "Delilah" for this storm's name. Well done.

Everything is still on track for a big snow storm for Thursday into Friday. Right now we're only going to focus on Thursday as we will need to see how the low develops and the track it ultimately decides to take.

So, for Thursday, we think snow will start as early as 8 AM. We'll have a better sense of the start time once we see the radar tonight. While we're at it, here's a good look at the current radar (noon, Wednesday):


That mess there over the Southeast is gradually lifting to the north and east. Once the center of the low pressure reaches the coast, it will push right up along the coast and develop into a very typical nor'easter. The difference between 8" of snow in the Berkshires and 14" will all depend on the track. Should the storm track slightly farther east (as the North American models are suggesting), we'll have lower snow totals. Should the storm hug the coast (as the Euro model suggests), we'll hit a foot of snow.

The snow will come down at a rate of 1-2" of an hour during the middle of the day, most likely in the 12 to 4 PM time slot. This is the main reason why we think it would be prudent for school administrators to have students go home early or have them stay home altogether.

[A point of clarification on the predictions for releases, delays, and snow days. Each outcome (release, delay, or full day off) is judged independently. So, 100% confidence for a release and 80% confidence for a snow day do not mean we think there will be a release and not a snow day. It just means that a release is guaranteed while a snow day is not. Should we move the snow day Confidence Meter to 100% later today, we would then move the release Confidence Meter to 0%, as it is very hard to have a release when you are sitting at home chomping on the bonbons.]

We had been hearing some talk of "blizzard watches." While it will snow hard enough for a blizzard, we don't think the wind will be strong enough (sustained winds of 35+ mph for a period of at least 3 hours).


Courtesy of New England Cable News.
The only big adjustment we might make tonight has to do with the timing. If the storm starts earlier, snow days will be virtually guaranteed. While we won't be surprised if a few districts call in the snow day tonight, most Superintendents will wait for the morning to see if there are any developments overnight.

This storm certainly has enough energy and precipitation to impact the length of the school day both Thursday and Friday.

2 comments:

  1. My, my, my, Delilah
    Why, why, why, Delilah
    I could see that girl was no good for me

    ReplyDelete
  2. this storms is a conspiracy theroy developed by the GSD staff. They created fake graphs and charts to convince children not do there homework! Do Not Belive these lies!!!!

    ReplyDelete