No one likes to play the role of Danny Downer, but GSD wants you as prepared as possible for the storm looming in the distance for Wednesday. Right now there is little consensus from the computer models about the track, the timing, and the amount of precipitation. The models are now predicting anywhere from 1/2" to over 1" of liquid precip for this storm, which translates to 6" to roughly 15" of snow. The timing is for Wednesday but it's too hard to say exactly when it will start snowing because there is uncertainty about the time of the formation of the coastal low and how quickly it is going to move up the coast. And we should know by now that the track of the storm can change even as the storm is happening.
The three scenarios still being bandied about: 1) coastal track/major snow; 2) inland track/snow and sleet; 3) storm goes bye-bye out to sea/little snow. No one likes #3 but some reliable models have produced that scenario. Boo.
We will have light snow on Tuesday from an AC--look for 1" to 3" in advance of the mess on Wednesday. School and after school activities should not be impacted from this slight disturbance. GSD also does not think that any games on Tuesday night will be canceled in advance of the Wednesday potential blockbuster.
GSD will give an update later tonight, but Monday night and Tuesday by noon is really when we'll know with much more certainty how much we're going to get, if there will be sleet involved, and what the timing of the storm will be. The gut instinct of the staff at GSD is that at the moment we're in the middle phase of the three-phase forecast, which goes like this: 1) initial big storm predictions 5-7 days in advance; 2) a period of doubt and uncertainty 2-4 days before; 3) return to big storm predictions the day before. Things don't always play out this way, but that's the typical meteorologist reaction to the computer models.
Keep your fingers crossed, and, peeps, make sure you wear your hat and mittens over the next few days. Don't let pets, small children, and/or grandma and grandpa stay outside for too long.