Monday, January 17, 2011

Midday Report -- Storm 1.18

As we approach the 18-hour mark before the storm arrives (6 or 7 am on Tuesday), there still is plenty of disagreement and uncertainty about the degree to which the storm will strike the Berkshires. The pattern of low pressure systems--one in the Midwest and one on the Southern coast--is nearly identical to last week's storm. Unfortunately, the amount of moisture is significantly less, and the timing of the transfer of energy from the Midwest low to the coastal low is the big question mark. If the transfer of energy happens fairly quickly, then the storm will be mostly snow to the tune of 6-8". If the two pressure systems take their time to co-mingle, then we will see about 2-4" of snow before a changeover to sleet and even freezing rain. (We should also point out that last week's storm and the December 26th storm were also initially low-balled by forecasters. Eight to twelve predicted inches quickly became 20-24" before all was said and done.)

Either scenario above is not ideal for travel in that 2:30--3:30 time slot. Again, GSD strongly endorses an announced early release tomorrow, but the chance of full snow day is still a very real possibility. This storm will go down to the wire. It is unlikely that you'll see GSD weigh in with a 100% chance prediction, but the chance for a snow day should remain at or above 75% for the time being.

 Not a scenario we want to see on Tuesday (go to the 30 sec. mark & enjoy the videographer's great commentary)

With the 75% rating for the storm, GSD strongly encourages that you prepare for any major assignments (test, papers, and projects), but you certainly could risk not completing a regular homework assignment if you're the adventurous type who lives life on the edge.

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