Friday, February 6, 2015

The Monday Storm Muddle

Happy Friday, Flake Followers. Another lively week in the Berkshires with delays, snow days, and freeze delays. There were no early releases to report, which would have completed the royal flush of winter weather school-truncating options.

Everyone is abuzz with excitement because of the potential for another major storm for Monday. We're not feeling entirely confident with what we're seeing from the forecasts, and here's a tweet from Paul Caiano over at Channel 13 in Albany that boils this storm down to its essence:

The ECMWF is our favorite Euro model. The GFS is the US National Weather Service's models. The NAM is the North American model, and the RPM is another US-based model. That's a wild spread. When forecasters make their predictions based on these models, they go with whichever model has been the most accurate lately, and/or they blend the models together to come up a forecast. You can see why meteorologists are holding back on any big announcements for our region for Monday.

We would not suggest that you look at these models and anticipate a foot and half of snow. What you should do is wait another day or so in order for the models to come into agreement.

Whatever happens this weekend, we're pretty sure of two outcomes. 1) It will snow 2 or 3 inches Saturday afternoon and evening. 2) It will snow Sunday evening into Monday. Currently, the GSD Staff feels a 4-8" snow fall is realistic.

We are going to put up a new storm name poll just in case this storm gets to the Watch and Warning levels. It will be slow mover, so we might not actually reach the thresholds necessary for either of those storm announcements.

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