Sunday, February 8, 2015

Storm Ringo: Midday Update

**UPDATE: Snow Day for North Adams and Clarksburg tomorrow.** (5:01 PM)

Something about this storm has the feel of a bust. We've been going around and around on this storm at the GSD Home Office, and something about it just feels off.

Here's what we don't like:

1) We performed better than average and average on the last two storms. We're due for a "market correction."

2) The moisture isn't streaming in quite like we thought it might.

Perhaps the dry spell in the morning is throwing us off the scent, but it just doesn't feel as if the storm is organized enough--or will organize enough--to generate 12-18 inches of snow, as many forecasters are predicting.

Here's the current radar as of 2:45 PM:

That's a nice looking band of moderate snow. It is headed our way, but our concern is how narrow it is. If it jogs north or south at all by 50 miles, we could be out of luck in the Berkshires.

The storm is supposed to gain strength as a low pressure system moves to the coast, but it will not have nor'easter strength. We have less faith in the coastal portion of the snow storm now.

Right now we are thinking that we'll see about 3-4" from the band of snow you see above extending back to the Great Lakes. Then, as the coastal low strengthens later tonight, we'll see another 3-5". If the road crews do a good job, then we will see more delays than snow days for Monday.

Because so many schools have used 4 and 5 snow days already, Superintendents are going to be reluctant to call a snow day, especially with February break right around the corner. [Apparently this year some districts do not have a February break (Central Berkshire, for one), so those Superintendents might be feeling less pressure to have school.]

The one part of the forecast working for us is that snow is expected to fall throughout the day on Monday. If that forecast proves to be true, Superintendents will have no choice but to cancel school for the day.

The double snow day seems like a long shot right now, but we won't know until the coastal piece of the storm kicks in.

There's a very good chance that most schools will be closed tomorrow, but we just want to prepare you that Storm Ringo might end up in the 6-9 range, not the 10-14 or 14-18 range.

Storm Ringo is not a stone cold lead pipe lock.

No comments:

Post a Comment