A snow day literally and figuratively falls from the sky, unbidden, and seems like a thing of wonder. -- Susan Orlean

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Handicapping the Scenarios

Brooklyn is on track and already pushing snow into southern and western New York as of noon on Wednesday. We may get a stray flurry or two in the Berkshires this afternoon, but we won't see sustained snow until much later tonight. Midnight--give or take an hour on either side--is when we're likely to see the real start to Storm Brooklyn.

We'd love to see this Weather Channel image come to fruition but it's a touch optimistic.

Because of the extended length of this storm, Brooklyn presents nine different scenarios over the next two days. [For those of us who have school. We know New York schools are off until Monday, and there are few districts in the Berkshires who also went with the two full weeks of vacation.] The royal flush of school-shortening snow events is the vaunted Triple, with an early release, followed by a snow day, followed by a delay. With Saturday in play for this storm, that's not possible, but we have some very appealing other options. Here are our initial odds for the following events:

Thurday/Friday

Delay/Delay -- 100,000 to 1
Delay/Snow Day -- 500 to 1
Delay/Release -- 100,000 to 1

Release/Delay -- 4 to 1
Release/Snow Day -- 8 to 1
Release/Release -- 1000 to 1

Snow Day/Delay -- 2 to 1
Snow Day/Snow Day -- 5 to 1
Snow Day/Release -- 1000 to 1

Remember that these odds are in relationship to each other. We're not certain we're getting a snow day on Thursday, although the odds do seem to be creeping up that we will. Again, the key piece of information the GSD Staff still needs is a radar image later this evening. Also, if NOAA decides to upgrade Brooklyn from a Watch to a Warning at some point this afternoon, then that will bump our snow day/release odds as well.

This sure is fun, isn't it?


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