A snow day literally and figuratively falls from the sky, unbidden, and seems like a thing of wonder. -- Susan Orlean

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Clipper for Friday; Bigger Storm For Monday

We have two potential school-shortening weather events to look forward to over the next three school days. Thursday will a regular winter day with increasing high clouds and temps nearing freezing.

The first event is the milder Alberta Clipper that will move in from the northwest. The disturbance could bring as much as 3" to the Berkshires, with higher amounts in the North. The Adirondacks are looking at 3-6" from this medium-sized clipper. The timing looks to be very good--2 AM to 5 AM. Whether or not we have delays on Friday all depends on how quickly town road crews can get out there and move the snow. Unfortunately, it's not going to be that cold when the snow falls, so it will be easier to clear from the road. A 40% True North Confidence Meter for delays is about all we can offer.

It's not much but the timing could be right for delays. Thanks, Accuweather.
The brutal cold returns on Saturday. Highs in the low teens. Sunday will warm-up as the clouds move in ahead of the possible Monday snow storm.

It's still early yet, but we like what we're hearing about Monday's storm. Even though it will come out of the Ohio Valley and not be a coastal storm (contrary to what we thought a few days ago), there's so much cold air in place that we could see a moderate to heavy snowfall. The models are all indicating around an inch of liquid precipitation. We know the models were slightly off (!) for our last storm, but let's just go with the projections for now without taking any potshots at the models. Because of the cold air in place, we would see 8-12" for an event that would start in the early morning hours of Monday. Naturally, the chance for a snow day on Monday is much greater than a delay on Friday.

And even further into the future, we're seeing another storm for Thursday in the long-term weather guidance models. Yes, it's going to be a busy week.

And February break is just over two weeks away.

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