Sunday, January 11, 2015

A White Monday Morning Commute

For the third school/business day in a row, we have a likely delay scenario staring us dead in the face.

This map shows a middle confidence prediction for snow for our area by midnight on Monday. We are safely in the 2-3" forecast zone.
Here's what we know about the storm that we like:

1. Liquid expected with this storm is supposed to be about 0.3 inches--almost all models are in agreement. If we go with a modest snow-to-liquid ratio of 10 inches for every 1 inch of snow, even the worst high school math student can figure this out. (Hint: it's somewhere between 2 and 4.)

2. The snow is supposed to start shortly after 3 AM. We should have at least an inch on the ground by sunrise, according to NOAA.

3. Road conditions were very poor for Friday morning's commute. Monday's mini disturbance is strikingly similar to Friday's storm, minus one aspect (see #1 below).

Here's what we don't like about this storm:

1. The initial phase of snow will not be quite as intense as Friday's storm. This storm is coming in from the southeast, so it will be slower and last longer (a 10-12 hour event). Friday's storm, like a lot of failed high school romances, was faster and more intense.

2. The temperatures will be warmer so the snow will not adhere to the roads quite as well as it did on Friday.

3. Road crews had practice with Friday's storm and might be more efficient Monday. Just a theory.

So, what's going to happen...

Our best guess is that some and not all of schools in BC will have a 2-hour delay, with the usual suspects more in line for the delay than the stingier districts. Central Berkshire has been very liberal this year; the bigger city schools have been generous; South County schools less so (some of that has to do with simple geography.)

We'll know more about the timing much later tonight--post football play-off games--and offer up a final report for the pleasure of our readership. Good day!

1 comment:

  1. My analysis is light snow. Any delay or cancellation would be foolish.