A snow day literally and figuratively falls from the sky, unbidden, and seems like a thing of wonder. -- Susan Orlean

Monday, March 18, 2013

Winter Storm Warning for Tonight

Around 4 AM, the NWS upgraded our storm from a Watch to a Warning. The snow total predictions haven't changed--we're still on for 4-8"--but what has changed is that ice accumulation is almost a certainty for the Berkshires.

The storm will start as snow; the icing should occur as we get closer to dawn and the morning commute. We could see up to .25" of ice, which is significant. Ice will keep the snow totals down, but the ice could make tomorrow's commute even dicier than it was already going to be. We've raised our delay percentage on the True North Confidence Meter to account for the ice.

We'll have much more later, including information about MCAS testing and how that will be impacted for districts.

4 comments:

  1. How can there be 40% for one possibility and 75% for another?

    Should not the True North Confidence Meter have to take into account both options out of a possible 100%?

    Otherwise, a prediction could be made of 100% delay, 100% snow day, 100% early dismissal, and 100% full school day and you could make an argument that you are correct.

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  2. "snow day" includes delays and early dismissals, i think

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  3. They explained this in an earlier post, it was 100% delay and 75% snow day or something like that. The idea was that if there was not a snow day there was still a 100% chance of a delay, I think it is the same idea here too.

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  4. DESE has postponed MCAS tests scheduled for tomorrow. http://www.doe.mass.edu/news/news.aspx?id=7321
    Easier for Supers to dial it in tonight!

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