Sunday, December 8, 2013

Final Thoughts on a Delay for Tomorrow (12/9)

Here's a snapshot of the radar as of 9:15:

Notice that wedge of dry air between the blue patch (snow) and the green/pink patch (rain/sleet). A big reason for the wedge of dry air is because of the cold air is keeping the moisture out. If we were to make our forecast for a delay on this radar picture, then we would be lowering our True North Confidence Meter. Yet, the weather experts tell us that the moisture will fill in this column eventually, and we'll start to see snow fall around 12:30 or 1 AM as the green/pink part of the storm reaches the Berkshires.

Superintendents also have had all weekend to prepare mentally for this storm. We think this fact should work in our favor, as their vast minds have had time to envision a delay call and its impact, which is good.  What superintendents hate is when a storm sneaks up on them, which this storm decidedly has not done.

The enormous problem with this storm is that there just isn't very much precipitation associated with it. We should only see an inch or two of snow and then a 1/4" of sleet on top of that. The big question is: will there be enough sustained sleet and freezing rain during the morning commute to warrant a delay?We think there will be, and for this reason many districts will opt for the delay tomorrow but not all, especially in South County.

We won't at all be surprised if this storm is a bust (similar to this past Friday's storm), which is why we're not as confident as we'd like to be.

We know you come to us for definitive answers, but this one's a tricky one. We're leaning toward a delay for many schools in the county but it's only a slight tilt. Keep those fingers crossed!

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