A snow day literally and figuratively falls from the sky, unbidden, and seems like a thing of wonder. -- Susan Orlean

Sunday, January 22, 2017

Winter Weather Advisory for Monday/Tuesday

Looking at the national weather scene and seeing the threat of tornadoes all across Georgia today, it's not so bad living in the Berkshires after all...

We have some winter weather news, and it is encouraging. A Winter Weather Advisory is up for the Berkshires starting at 1 PM Monday and ending at 7 PM Tuesday. It looks like enough cold air will be in place in our neck of the woods to generate a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain.

The snow and sleet are coming Monday and Tuesday. Heavy snow is predicted for areas near us.
The main theme we're getting from all of our weather sources is the complexity--read inability to be predicted accurately--of this storm. A nose of cold air here, a quick warm-up there and the complete landscape of this storm will change. We could see an inch of snow, two inches of sleet, or an inch of rain, or all three concurrently or consecutively.

Two things are in play here that are good for a snow day decision: ice and uncertainty about ice. We only need to look back to last Tuesday to see what the threat of ice did for the afternoon activity schedule (i.e. everything was cancelled).

This means the possibility for delays and snow days for Tuesday are very real.

Here's what we think is going to happen in the Berkshires: rain by 2:00 PM Monday and then a changeover to sleet a little after dark and then off-again on-again snow and sleet throughout the evening into Tuesday morning. The winds are also going to whip up overnight, which will help bring temperatures down and help make it seem even worse than it actually is, whether it is raining, sleeting or snowing.

If you live in South County, you'll have about a 25% chance of a delay for Tuesday. If you live in North County, a 50% chance of a delay. That's what we're saying right now, but the True North Confidence Meter will likely change during the day tomorrow as we get more info.

Given how warm it was this weekend, it's also easy to see how this storm could be all rain. That we do not like.

Stay informed, and you can do that by checking back with us tomorrow morning.

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