A snow day literally and figuratively falls from the sky, unbidden, and seems like a thing of wonder. -- Susan Orlean

Sunday, December 7, 2014

Prolonged Storm to Begin Tuesday Night

The big Storm du Jour that we've been writing about for a few days has now morphed into a giant mess that will start impacting our region Tuesday night and last all the way through, possibly, Saturday.

Unfortunately, the warm air that has been in place for the last week or so will prove to be a problem for those of us wishing for a mega-snow storm. This is one of those storms that will be very hard to predict because we'll be right on the freezing point or slightly above through the duration of the storm. This storm will bring the quadruple threat: snow, sleet, freezing rain, and plain old rain. A one or two degree shift in the temperatures could greatly impact whether or not we get delays, releases, or full snow days.

The GSD Staff is very much divided about this storm. One group is underwhelmed by the forecast models and thinks the frozen precipitation will be limited, meaning it will be mostly a rain event. The optimists in the office think we'll get prolonged periods of sleet with some snow mixed in. They are thinking delays are a possibility for both Wednesday and Thursday.

So...as of now we don't think the good boys and girls of Berkshire County will be getting an early holiday gift from the Snow Gods in the form of a full snow day. We do think, though, that delays will be more likely Wednesday morning than on Thursday morning.

We're not at all confident at the moment about our own prediction. We need at least 24-more hours to check out the maps of the thermal profiles to see if enough cold enough air will be in place. Conventional wisdom says don't get too excited. As we've said before, it's a complex storm and there may just be too many parts to it for them to all come together.

We're not entirely sure the Accuweather folks have enough solid info to make this map, but we'll at least enter it into the equation.
We reserve our right to change our minds by tomorrow night. We hope we will have better news.

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