A snow day literally and figuratively falls from the sky, unbidden, and seems like a thing of wonder. -- Susan Orlean

Monday, December 8, 2014

Afternoon Thoughts About Storm Moonracer

We don't have too much to pass along other than that the wait-and-see approach--i.e., let's see what it's looking like tomorrow around 5 AM--will probably be the best course of action for this storm.

We have heard a few reports that the Euro model is taking the storm slightly to our east. This would be good news for the Berkshires. Generally speaking, if you want a lot of snow, you to be on the west side of the the center of energy--the low pressure system. The forecast is for the low pressure system to move right over New England and stay there for 36 hours or so. So, because the center of the storm is supposed to be right on top of us, the warm air from the south and from the ocean will make its way into the Berkshires, thus changing the snow to rain. If the storm can push 100 miles to the east, we will have a better shot of staying on the snow side of the storm.

Heavy snow will only be 50 to 75 miles away from the lower-elevation towns of the Berkshires. The Poconos and the Adirondacks are supposed to get pummeled. We could be a part of those heavy snowfalls if the storm shifts eastward at all. But currently it's not forecasted to move all that far to the east.

Here's a very ambitious snow forecast from the European model:

Courtesy of Henry Margusity at Accuweather.

A good rule of thumb is to expect about 2/3rds of what the Euro model is predicting for snow. It tends to run high as we've seen over the last few years. So, if our adjusted Euro prediction comes through, we're still looking at 8" across the Berkshires starting tomorrow morning and ending on Wednesday mid-morning.

Paul Caiano's first map for Storm Moonracer.
Eight inches is a sizable amount, but that forecast alone won't cancel school on Tuesday. As always, it's going to come down to the timing. We're just not sure if it's going to start early enough to impact the morning commute, but more importantly will be the forecast for the dismissals at 2:30 and 3:00. And right now we don't have quite enough information to know what it's going to be doing then. The trend is that the warm air will convert the frozen stuff to rain by the midday period.

Even if we don't get a snow day out of this one, King Moonracer reigns supreme!
More to follow later; we'll have a more definitive call about tomorrow's delays and snow days by 10 PM.

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