A snow day literally and figuratively falls from the sky, unbidden, and seems like a thing of wonder. -- Susan Orlean

Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Not Much to Write Home About

Frankly, the GSD Staff hates a day like today. We didn't do the best job of predicting delays or snow days for this morning--we lowered the Confidence Meter to 10% yesterday when we should have left it at 33%--and we feel bad about that.

Of course we were very happy for those schools that got delays, but the prediction of how ice will impact the school day is by far one of the more challenging things that we have to do at GSD. We know, we know--weather people problems--but we rarely ever feel good about our predictions when it comes to the dicey-ness of ice. So let's just move on and focus on the future.

So, what's in store for the next week? Well, our look into the meteorological crystal ball reveals much instability in our area but very little substantive snow. Many reports we've read have indicated that December will be warmer than normal. In fact, we may not see real winter cold until the end of the month. These reports do not rule out big storms; they just mean that a nor'easter may be a little harder to come by. Sadly, we won't be surprised to see November's snow total be more than December's, unless we get a big Holiday vacation storm.

Here are our chances for snow for the next week: 1) A short period Friday night then a changeover to rain for Saturday; snow could then usher out this system on Saturday night as a colder patch of air moves in. 2) Perhaps a few snow showers on Monday afternoon. 3) Tuesday could bring more sustained snow that might actually accumulate.

This system could create a brief period of snow on Friday night. Thanks to Accuweather for the image.
The models are in much disagreement about the next few disturbances. There is a chance of small coastal storm for Monday into Tuesday. If we're going to hang the GSD winter hat on any of these storms, it will have to be the Tuesday event. We're not super-confident about it, but it's the best we got, as they say.

We'll let you know if the Tuesday storm strengthens.


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