A snow day literally and figuratively falls from the sky, unbidden, and seems like a thing of wonder. -- Susan Orlean

Friday, February 19, 2016

Snow x 3

Greetings, Flake Followers! We have an exciting week ahead of us with not one, not two, but three opportunities for measurable snow.

The first occurs tonight. Expect some form of frozen precipitation starting around 9 or 10 PM. It should start as snow, and it will likely change over to sleet for a stretch as the temperatures actually warm up in the overnight hours above freezing. The best case scenario is 2 inches for the Berkshires. The worst case scenario is a dusting and then rain showers. Driving around later tonight could be hazardous, but town crews should be able to make the roads safe by Saturday morning.

We're also paying attention to the possibility of snow for Monday morning. Especially in South County, delays will be a possibility. The timing looks very good. It will be a southern storm, so we'll see a half inch or so north of Pittsfield with up to 3 inches near the Connecticut border. With all the excitement of next week's big storm dominating the weather news, we need to keep on eye on this sneaky little fellow for Monday morning.

Here's our potential snow for Monday morning, as captured by the NOAA Probabilistic Winter Weather  Guidance team.
And then the main event. Here's what's going on: Meteorologists were thinking all rain for the big east coast cities initially, but then a new run of the models showed much colder air in place, which means a snow/mixed precipitation event for us. The track of the storm is still in question. If the track is just east of the Appalachians--one projected track right now--then we'll be in the mixed precipitation/rain zone. If the storm tracks just off the coast--the other projected track--we'll be in the snow/mixed precipitation zone.

Either way, the GSD Staff is giving two very large thumbs down to the timing of the storm: during the day on Wednesday and into the evening. We fear that it won't be strong enough to merit a snow day or release on Wednesday, nor will it last long enough to impact the length of school on Thursday.

There's a lot going on and a lot to be determined still. Take it slow tonight, and don't sleep on the Sunday night/Monday morning quick shot of snow. We'll have more about that other storm tomorrow.

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