A snow day literally and figuratively falls from the sky, unbidden, and seems like a thing of wonder. -- Susan Orlean

Wednesday, February 8, 2017

Nor'easter For Thursday

All the pieces and parts are falling into place for Thursday's storm.

The Winter Storm Warning is still in effect. The timing is outstanding--snow should start between 2 AM and 4 AM. The air will be cold, leading to high snow-to-liquid ratios. Two parts of the storm will phase and intensify off the coast of New Jersey, bringing heavy bands of snow into our area between 9 AM and noon.

We are expecting 6-8 inches south of I-90 and 4-6 inches north of I-90. The one negative is that we will see cliff-like cutoff on the northern edge of the storm. For example, Pittsfield could see 8 inches and North Adams only 3 inches. The farther south and east you live, the better your chance is for a full snow day.

Not as good as last night's map, but still very, very encouraging.
For this reason, we think that all schools have a very good chance for a snow day tomorrow. The only schools that could see a full day of school are the ones in the very northern parts of the county--Mount Greylock, Williamstown, North Adams, Adams-Cheshire, Florida, Savoy. Also, the GSD Staff has decided not to go with a full 100% on the True North Confidence Meter because of the steep snow cutoff line potential.

If the storm tracks more to our south, we'll have to bring our snow totals down to 3-6 for the south, 2-4 to the north. Still, the timing is so good that even these lower snow totals could easily generate snow days for all.

If the storm tracks slightly more northward, then everyone in the county will see 6+ inches of snow and will assuredly enjoy yet another snow day.

Do not be surprised if a few schools in southern parts of Berkshire County call in the cancellation tonight. We'll post those as soon as we hear any news.

(We will be at a conference in New Hampshire this evening, but we should be able to post the latest storm developments before 9 PM.)

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