Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Storm Esme Early Evening Report

Sound the town siren! We've decided to name this storm Esme in an effort to coax her into delivering a significant snow event.

Here's the latest:

A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for Northern Berkshire. Unfortunately, the warning is only for those parts of North County that are above 1500 feet. Under 1500 feet and for South County, we have a Winter Weather Advisory. Higher elevations could see up to 12"; lower elevation towns will see anywhere from 2-6".

Unfortunately, we don't have a high level of confidence with this storm. The moisture toward our south is steadily pushing our way but it seems to be breaking up in places even as it moves northward. It could pull in more moisture off the ocean, but it doesn't seem to want to spin in that counter-clockwise direction like we'd want it to do. Fortunately for us, though, Esme's not the fastest gal on the block so if it does come down as snow or sleet, it will gradually accumulate over a 24-hour period.

The timing is still very good to excellent, which means tomorrow's commute should be ugly. Homely in the South; hideous in the North. No matter what happens, we really won't know definitively what the right call should be until 5 AM tomorrow. A change of half a degree in the temps would be enough to change the forecast.

The GSD Staff has agreed to raise the chance of a delay on the True North Confidence Meter to 60%, and we're going to hold our snow day chances at 35%. South County schools should take these numbers and divide by 2.

As always, we reserve the right to change our minds and will likely do so for the late evening report. Until we meet again...

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