A snow day literally and figuratively falls from the sky, unbidden, and seems like a thing of wonder. -- Susan Orlean

Thursday, March 17, 2016

Latest Models: The Predicted Swath of Snow Moves West

As we (sort of) predicted last night, the models have operated in their typical fashion and have flip-flopped. They are now once again predicting a moderate or even heavy snow for our area for Sunday night into Monday. Yes, the storm is back on.

No one really wants the snow, but who's going to pass up a snow day? If it's going to snow this late in the season, it might as well generate a three-day weekend.

Here's a tasty looking projection map from the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center:

Thanks, NWSWPS.
It's very encouraging at this stage in the developments. The GSD Staff is certainly excited, but everyone needs to keep expectations in check. We shouldn't forget that it's been a terrible winter for snow lovers, and these trends tend to stay consistent throughout an entire season.

The big discrepancies with the projections for this storm are with the amount of precipitation. The projections range from .25 inches to 1 inch of liquid precipitation. This roughly means anywhere between 3 and 12 inches of snow for us. Hopefully in the next 24 or 48 hours we'll be able to give you more specific information about just how much liquid should fall from the skies with this storm.

The other thing we know is that the storm will be relatively fast-moving. Right now we're guessing a 6 PM Sunday to 12 PM Monday window for the snow, which is just about perfect for a snow day should there even be enough snow.

Before you get too excited, though, here's your meteorological wet blanket: A jig or jog in the track of the storm by as little as 50 miles will greatly how much snow we get, so this storm is anything but a certainty.

But it is fun to talk about, and you know we'll have more info tomorrow.

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