Greetings, Weatherhounds. Here's the GSD schedule for the rest of the day: we'll make a preliminary call by 8:00 pm today and then we'll do a final follow-up around 11 pm.
Certain models are showing there's more moisture with this storm than originally predicted. It's going to come down hard at some point this evening. If it's before the changeover, we're looking at possibly an inch of rain. If it comes after the temps dip low enough for snow, the snowfall rate could be 2-3" per hour. According to NOAA, if it does come down that fast, the predictions for snowfall will need to double (taking us up to 6-12"). If that happens, we would have a Winter Storm Warning in place at least for NorBerk. That scenario is certainly realistic and reflected in our latest Confidence Meter.
The radar reveals that a strong line of moderate to heavy precipitation is taking a track toward the northwest corner of Massachusetts and the southeast corner of Vermont. Earlier in the week, it looked like South County was going to get the fat part of the storm, but moisture has definitely lifted more northerly. Again, any kind of movement of this heavy precipitation line is going to radically change the prediction. That is, of course, if it turns to snow early enough.
We're still saying around 10 or 11 pm for the shift to snow. If it shifts earlier, that's not necessarily a good sign because the storm is moving quickly. We'll try to nail down the time span of the storm at the 8:00 pm report, as that will give us the clearest indication if we're sleeping in tomorrow or not.
If you see a Winter Storm Watch or Warning this afternoon, we could be in for a big one.