Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Storm 3.1.12: Leap Day Storm Brought to You by Miller (Type B)

The NWS has lowered their snow forecast for the Northern Berkshires for this afternoon and evening. Earlier in the day it was 8-12" but now they're calling for 5-8". This isn't great news but it isn't devastating either. A good base of 5 or 6" inches is all we need as long as the secondary low forms off the coast and brings us more snow (and sleet, too, which wouldn't hurt our chances).

Speaking of the secondary low, here's more information than you need (but it's interesting just the same). The storm pattern today and tomorrow is called a Miller Type B storm. Type A storms start in the Gulf of Mexico, race across the south, and gain strength as they work their way up the coast. Our typical Nor'easters result from Miller Type-A's. The Type B pattern occurs when the low pressure system comes out of the upper Midwest and transfers its energy to a secondary coastal low. The map below shows a typical Type B pattern. For our storm, the primary low is moving more due east than the low in the map below, which means our secondary low will form higher up the coast near NJ or Long Island.

We still will see heavy bands of snow this evening. Eventually--around 9 pm--we'll make the final call on our prediction for a delay or snow day tomorrow.


  1. I spoke to the Super today. I don't think her heart is in a snow day call... Don't get your hopes up!

  2. Just curious. It says you have a 97.65% success rate since 1978 - what constitutes success? Because I remember last year on several occasions forecasts for snow days only to suddenly change last minute and still be "correct". Shouldn't there be some baseline (6 hours out, 12 hours out, etc.) from which to base your "success". After all, anyone could predict with relative success delay/snow day if they just wake up 30 mins before it is called.

  3. Just looked at and saw that there is a lull of snow until 12 am. Since the snow has moved forward two hours, could this up our chances of a snow day? I'm not very confident myself that we will have a snow day because the roads are too warm, but just thought I would ask?

  4. It's supposed to stop tonight then start again heavy tomorrow morning.... No point in school

  5. Dear anonymous,
    This blog is supposed to be fun and offer information that is as accurate as possible. Please be nice to our greylock snow day bloggers. I read the blog because it's entertaining, not because I expect the bloggers to be right all the time, and you should too.

    Thank you GSB,
    An avid south county follower