A snow day literally and figuratively falls from the sky, unbidden, and seems like a thing of wonder. -- Susan Orlean

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Turkey Day Storm Update

One of the big concerns we have at the GSD Home Office is the degree to which we play a part in the winter weather hype machine. Because we are an independent operation without any sponsorships (minus one), and because the success of GSD isn't about clicks on ads or numbers of pageviews, we really are only interested in giving you the most honest, hype-free advice about upcoming weather systems that we can. As tempted as we are to try to influence Superintendents about making snow day decisions, we can't in good conscience hype up a storm in order to do that. Believe us.

Which brings us to the Thanksgiving Storm of 2014. You are going to hear a ton of info about this storm in the next few days given its timing and its impact on the busiest travel day of the year. This storm is no snowmageddon, but it has the potential to drop a foot on many locales in interior New England, which would include the Berkshires. It's not to be taken lightly.

Here's a fascinating image:

Image courtesy of the NWS.
This image shows a forecast image for snow through Wednesday at midnight. The dark blue area represents up to 8" of snow. The darkest green is 6" of snow. This forecast map only goes through midnight, so there would be more snow on top of these 6 or 8 inches if we had a Thursday map. What it all means is that we are looking at between 6 and 12 inches of snow from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, according to the most recent runs of the computer models.

Unfortunately, the models aren't always right, and we at GSD are going to hedge on the bet that this storm will be a major one. We'll still roll out our first naming poll of 2014, but at this point in the proceedings we think 4-6" is a more likely outcome for this first storm of the season. Our rationale is that these storms in the early part of the season can fizzle and head out to sea, which the North American model is predicting. We're rooting for the big storm scenario the Euro model is forecasting, but our staff is leaning more toward the North American model. [Still, the North American is showing signs of starting to move more in line with the Euro model (but we'll have more on that tomorrow).]

Whatever ends up happening, travel will be a problem in the afternoon and evening of Wednesday. Thursday morning travel will also be slow going. We don't think the storm will linger beyond noon on Thursday.

Image courtesy of Accuweather.
Stay tuned for many more details about this exciting development, even if it isn't going to impact school.

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