Friday, December 14, 2012

"Just a Mess"

As much as we like a tight, well-defined storm build-up, we're just not getting it with this series of storms. The weather will most certainly be unsettled starting late Saturday night and extending all the way to Wednesday. The Sunday/Monday situation now looks clearer--with a possible ice surprise for Monday--but few people or computer models can make any sense of what's going to happen on Wednesday.

Here's what we do know:

Sunday: Snow will move into our area late Saturday night or very early Sunday. The precipitation will be light and it will be stay light before it transitions to rain and drizzle in the late morning hours or early afternoon slot. There may be a brief period of sleet or freezing rain on Sunday before it becomes rain. The best we're going to get out of this initial shot of weather is an inch of snow to put everyone in a more festive holiday spirit. We're more likely to get a coating only to see it disappear later in the day as the temps rise.

Courtesy of Accuweather
Monday: There is some concern about ice for the Monday morning commute. Another wave of light precip is supposed to come through in the overnight hours, and it could create icing conditions. We're really not sure on this prediction just yet, so we'll put a slight chance (20%) of a delay on the True North Confidence Meter.

Tuesday into Wednesday: Make a dartboard with "nothing," "rain," "light snow," "moderate snow," and "heavy snow" on it. Put a blindfold on. Spin around three times. Throw the dart at the dartboard. Tell us what you get because your answer will most likely be better than ours. One of the models--let's call it Model A--has the storm coming across the region and transferring its energy to a coastal low on the mid-Atlantic coast. Another model--Model B--has the storm slowly making its way across the Northeast and then transferring its energy to a low off of New England. If we are to have a snow day on Wednesday, we need Model A to come through for us. There are also serious concerns about the temperature--even if Model A turns out to be right, it might just be too warm for an all-snow event.

As you can see, the forecast is just a wee bit messy. There's even a possibility that a wave of moisture will come through our area Monday night into Tuesday. Again, the precipitation will be light but it still adds to this complicated weather picture.

The only thing we can promise you is some snow early Sunday.

We'll be updating throughout the weekend to help sift through the good info, the bad info, and the hype to give you the straight weather story. Good day!

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