Monday, January 16, 2012

1.17.12: Morning Commute Could Be Messy

The area weather experts have weighed in and very little has changed from this morning's prediction about tomorrow morning's winter event. A full cancellation is out of the question, but a delay is certainly in the grand realm of possibility. Your a.m. fortunes largely depend on how many angry phone calls the Superintendent received last Thursday about the conditions of the roads and putting students' lives in danger. While Thursday morning's drive wasn't exactly smooth sailing, "no delay" was the right call and the roads were no better two hours later.

Not much happening here.
Because of the "once bitten, twice shy" theory, we're going to bump up the chance of a delay by 10 whole points. The GSD Staff consensus is that there's a lot of virga with this storm, so the radar makes it out to have more moisture than it actually does. Also, we don't love the track of this storm at the moment. It looks like the heaviest bands of precipitation will be just slightly to our south. The track might trend more northerly, giving us the brunt of this fairly weak system, but that still would be enough to put only 2" on the ground.

Here's what we like: 1) timing; 2) sleet during the commute; 3) looming presence of freezing rain.

Here's what we don't like: 1) weak volume; 2) southerly track

GSD Staff is feeling a confident "no delay" at the moment. After a three-day weekend, that's not that hard to swallow but it disappointing nonetheless.

Other dicey-ness is in the forecast for the end of the week. Again, no major events but turbulence is in the air and will need to be monitored.

Look for the late evening report for the last say, but don't hold your breath on this one.

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