Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Colder Air and More Snow Coming

Get ready for the cold temperatures to lock in for the next ten days. The cold front will move into our area tomorrow, which means that we'll see snow showers as the temps decline.

Superintendents may not want to hear this, but we may see a period of lake effect-like snow (a.k.a upslope snow). You may remember a few weeks back when the strong upslope snow dropped over a foot of snow in some places in the Berkshires, which led to county-wide school cancellations. With that kind of teaser you'd think that snow days are in the offing for Friday, but, sadly, that is not the case.

What will probably happen is a period of several hours of snow Thursday night into early Friday with maybe as much as 2-3 inches on the ground by the end of the day Friday. Because it will be colder and the wind will be blowing the snow, it's possible but not likely that a few superintendents will see the need to call in the delay for Friday.

As for the Sunday storm, we're still signs of 3-5 inches. Most likely the storm will not be too severe and any snow that falls will be cleaned off the roads by the morning commute, but we're still very much intrigued by this possible storm and are giving it our full attention.

Here's an interesting map:

What this shows is the probability of a quarter of an inch or more of liquid. If we use a fairly modest ratio of 10 inches of snow for every inch of liquid, then a quarter of an inch of liquid means we'll see at least 2.5 inches of snow. With colder air in place, that modest snow-to-liquid ratio can climb as high as 15 or 16 to 1. So, if we are to believe this map, we can surmise that several inches of snow are indeed possible by the middle of the day on Monday.

Keep your eye on the snow tomorrow evening--roads could get slick fast. And don't just assume school is going to start on time on Friday.

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