Thursday, February 1, 2018

False Hopes

We keep getting excited about big storms for our area, but the low-pressure systems just don't want to cooperate, and we're now looking at our third big fizzle in a row. We will see a few flakes in the air tonight, but our best guess is that tomorrow's commute will be much easier than today's was.

We picked up a later-than-expected half inch of snow this morning to slow things down out on the roadways. If schools had a one-hour delay protocol--as they many of them used to have in the past--they might have opted with that decision just to give everyone a little extra time to get to homeroom on time.

We don't think there will be delays tomorrow, but it's worth your while to keep your ears open for plows in the pre-dawn hours.

Even more bad news: our latest intel on our Super Bowl storm is not encouraging. We needed a storm from the Plains to get out in front of a trough (essentially, a dip in the jet stream), but the models are not supporting that scenario. It really could have been a big one; instead, the storm on Sunday will give us snow throughout the day but it won't amount to much. The max snow totals look to be 3-4 inches and ending well before midnight.

We won't have to wait long for the next chance for a storm. The models are suggesting yet another disturbance to move through the Berkshires Tuesday night into Wednesday. It's the same set-up as Friday and Sunday's storm. It could develop into a moderate storm, but there's an equal chance it will fizzle and give us a light wintry mix.

You have to think we'll hit it right on one of these opportunities, but we're not even going to waste the energy to be cautiously optimistic about this event in the middle of the week.

Hopefully, one of these storms will surprise us.

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