January 16/17 Storm: Early Evening Report

After a day of light snow--3 inches on the ground at the GSD Home Office (as of 7 PM)--we're girding ourselves for another 6 inches of snow overnight. The morning commute will be a mess, and we expect delays and snow days for almost all students in Berkshire County tomorrow.

Here's a fascinating comparison. First, is the current radar:

Here is this morning's radar, over 12 hours earlier:

Not a lot of change, right? We can see the snow starting to fill in in New York and Western New England, and there is a clearly defined boundary for this storm. Fortunately, we are living on the right side of the tracks for this snow event.

We do expect the coastal low--you can start to see it beginning to take shape off the coast of New Jersey in the top image--to throw some snow at us in the form of those heavy bands of snow. Those bands will be the magic ingredient for a snow day tomorrow.

The forecast is for the snow to last right on through to midday. Perhaps it ends around 11 AM in South County and holds off until 1 PM in North County. But the ends of these things are harder to predict than the beginnings. (Maybe because once we get that snow day we lose a little bit of interest in the storm. Just a theory.)

It's about at this point in our early evening storm posts that we write about whether or not your Suprintendent will take away the suspense and phone in the delay or snow day tonight. We're sure there will be a few, but we think Superintendents want to wait this one out as A) we just had a day off Monday; and B) a lot of high schools are in mid-term exam time and no one wants to mess with those schedules--giant headache. On a positive note, a ton of districts in counties to our east have already phoned in the cancellation. Mohawk Trail and Greenfield are both off tomorrow.

Given that NWS Albany expects 6-10 inches for Western Mass, we'll bump up the chance of a delay to 95% and push the snow day to 80%. You can probably get away with blowing off your homework tonight, but if you have an exam tomorrow, you should put in a little study time just in case. Plus, if we do get the snow day, then you have a leisurely day ahead of you.

As soon as a single, solitary Berkshire County Superintendent breaks the ice, we'll start a running list of delays and cancellation decisions.