Wow, we really misjudged yesterday and today's storm. Legendarily so. If we had missed it the other way--predicted a snow day and ended up with school--we might have had to shut down Greylock Snow Day. But we haven't had a miss the good way in several years, so we were due.
After a GSD Staff Post-Storm Debrief today, here is why we missed it:
1) So many storms over the last few years have been busts that we've learned to approach these "out of nowhere" storms with caution. Once bitten, twice shy, et cetera, et cetera.
2) These upslope, wrap-around storms are harder to predict especially because snow totals are so specific to elevation. There was so much spread in snow totals throughout the county. Some areas in Northern Berkshire County received 4 inches. Places in South County got a foot and a half. And it was supposed to be a more northerly storm. Weather guidance is getting better and better about these kinds of anomalous storms, so we might have to rely more on the data and models more than common sense would typically allow.
3) We're rusty. We didn't get too many reps in last winter, so we're slightly out of practice. That will change. You can expect an immediate return to the high quality of service you've been accustomed to over the years. That's why, in response to our mistake with this storm, we are going to offer 50% off the cost to access this sight for the rest of the 2016-17 season. That's right. That's 50% off our regular price for the next 5 months! That's the kind of thing we do for our loyal followers.
In the end the day off for most students means that a short week just got even shorter. Most schools will be in session on Wednesday, but with a half day the norm before the feasting, a 1.5 day week is just what the doctor ordered.
As for wintery weather in the forecast, we have three minor disturbances heading our way that should drop some form of frozen precipitation on us. None of these storms will produce more than an inch or two of snow. For all three storms, higher elevations should see more snow, and valleys will see more mixing and even rain. On Wednesday night into Thanksgiving, we could see sleet and snow, with the precipitation ending by the afternoon. Roads could be slightly messy on Thursday morning but nothing like last night and today. Saturday night presents a very similar situation, and then we expect the same wintry mix/light snow storm for Monday. None of these storms will bring any surprise upgrades. If anything, they will fizzle and just bring a few showers. The best chance for a measurable amount of snow will Thursday morning.
Enjoy the short week! The next several weeks look unsettled, but temps look like they'll be in the high 30s and 40s. Storms will trend toward rain and mixed precipitation for the next 21 days.