Weekend Snow (Dec. 26-29)

Merry Christmas to all who celebrate! And happy holidays to all who continue to check in GSD on a regular basis. We love that you love winter weather--and snow days, of course!--as much as we do. Thank you!

While Tuesday's storm certainly did not amount to much at all--only 0.2" at the GSD Home Office and no releases in Berkshire County--we have two new storm systems to get excited about.

Friday night's storm will be more potent than the Sunday/Monday storm. This storm will track to our south Friday night (onset time 7 PM) and last into early Saturday. This time around folks in South County will get more snow than those in the North. It's not a huge storm by any stretch--only about 3"--but any movement northward could drive up snow totals for all of us. 

NWS Albany

The Sunday/Monday storm might be more of a mixed precipitation event. Cold air will hold in place in Berkshire County when the next storm moves in, but the temps will quickly rise as the precipitation commences Freezing rain and sleet could make travel early on Monday difficult. Higher terrain towns may see all snow, but there is still a degree of uncertainty about the amount of frozen precipitation we'll see. The Staff will need to see a few more runs of the models to figure out what we should expect on Monday.

We'll have more updates about the Friday night snow soon!

The Euro-AI model favors more snow than what is being forecasted. We'll just have to see.

Tuesday Snow Update: Not Much New

Areas to our north are under a Winter Weather Advisory. A handful of schools in the Springfield have called in early releases. But at this point, no schools in Berkshire County have decided to shorten or cancel school for Tuesday.

The NAM (short-term) and Euro models are still showing 2-3 inches. The North American model is still bearish and calling for 4-5 inches. Albany meteorologists are saying that it will be slightly colder than expected and that there might be bands of moderate snow. So, there is an outside chance this storm over-performs on Tuesday.

Snow predication by the NAM (short-term) model for Tuesday afternoon.

Still, the timing is not great so we don't think there will be too many school-shortening decisions by Superintendents for those students still in session. We are not moving the Confidence Meter to zero, but we are definitely feeling low expectations for this minor storm.

We do see more snow on the horizon for the weekend. It's a complex set-up, but we could see more measurable snow Friday night and on Sunday. More details to follow.

We'll post cancellations or releases should they come in Tuesday morning.

Messy Tuesday (December 23)

For those who are in session this week, Tuesday is shaping up to be a messy day. The snow will start right before or during the morning commute, and we will see light snow throughout the day.

The early Monday runs of the forecast models are definitely showing more snow. The Euro is still showing widespread 2-3". The North American has veered sharply in a positive direction and is now showing 5" of snow. The NAM (the short-range model) is clocking in at 3-4" for most of Berkshire County. We definitely think the North American model has gotten into the egg nog a little early and is too exuberant, but we overall we can't complain about the trend.

NWS Albany

This storm will be another big headache for Superintendents. The start time makes the decision challenging, and calling a snow day on a 2-3" prediction is a tough sell to hardliners out there. An early release would be a good middle option but the roads will be just as snowy at the early release time as they will be at the end of the day. 

One interesting idea that came up in the GSD Staff meeting was the call for an early release the night before. This would give families additional time for travel or final holiday preparations. Most families are already home so starting vacation a few hours early would not be as disruptive, say, as an early release day would be on a random Wednesday in late January.

We'll do one more update later tonight.

Tapping the Breaks on a Tuesday Snow Day

Just a quick update on the snow situation for Monday.

We will definitely see snow on Tuesday throughout Berkshire County, and it will almost certainly be enough for a white Christmas, but the timing has now shifted to a slightly later starting time. It will likely not start early enough to trigger Superintendents to call a snow day.

Snow totals are still for 2-3 inches for all three models (Euro, Euro-AI, North American). These totals might change positively or negatively, but not a lot of variance is expected at this point. We could only see 1-2", but if the storm over-performs, still we'll only see 3-4". There's no chance of a developing "coastal bomb" that could lead to much higher snow total projections.

Here's the latest prediction from NWS Albany for Tuesday. We're now really going to dial in on the forecast for the hour of the start of the storm, as that will be the biggest factor that could lead to snow days or delays.

Tuesday Snow Day?

For those of you not already on break, we might have a developing snow situation for Tuesday, the last day of school before December break.

It's not going to be a lot of snow, but it might just be enough to affect the school day. The models took a nice turn in our favor and are both now showing a 2-3" of snow from a storm system that will move in from the Great Lakes area late Monday night or early Tuesday morning.

Because it's a clipper-type of storm, it will not have lot of moisture to work with. But it might just be enough for snow days or releases given the excellent timing. As of today the snow is expected to start falling before the morning commute and continue through the day, which would lead to slippery driving for the afternoon bus runs.

European model showing 1-3" for the Berkshires. Will it be enough?

Given the low snow total, we should be cautious not to get too excited about the prospects of a snow day or an early release. (While an early release is often a giant hassle, Tuesday might be the one great time for an early day as most families are already getting into vacation mode. We'll have more on Superintendents and their decision tomorrow.)

Our collective eyebrows are definitely raised, which means the GSD Staff will be monitoring the developments 'round the clock from this point forward. Many more details to follow. 

Rain, Wind, Snow in That Order

Schools are creeping ever closer to the much anticipated December holiday break, and we are still in a very active weather pattern. Unfortunately, no big snow storms are on the horizon so it looks like all of us are going to have to play out the string and endure full days of school until break.

Many schools begin vacation on Friday, but several Grinch-ier districts are making their students slave away until Tuesday the 23rd. Bah humbug.

As for weather news, the warm-up has begun. Temps will shoot into the 50s by Friday and the change in temperature will be accompanied by a good old-fashioned soaker of a rainstorm. Most locations in the Berkshires will see an inch or more of rain. Say bye-bye to the snow base in the valleys!

This is the rain forecast from the North American model for Friday.

Ushering in the warm-up and the rain will be heavy winds. NWS Albany has issued a Wind Advisory for Thursday night and much of the day on Friday. The strongest winds will take place early Friday morning. Power outages may occur as some gusts will top 40 mph in our area. 

After the wind and the rain depart, temps will plummet starting late morning on Friday. We will see approximately a 35 degree temperature change in less than 24 hours. Flash freezing of all the rain should lead to isolated slippery spots.

We could see a few flakes this weekend with no accumulation. We are looking more intently at a chance for a few inches of snow on Tuesday. The models are all over the place at the moment, but there is a chance for accumulating snow on Tuesday during the day. We also may get more snow late in the day on Christmas and into the 26th. 

Temps will stay below freezing starting Monday so any snow we get Tuesday will stick around and give us folks in the Berkshires a white Christmas.

Snowy Wednesday But Schools Will Be Open

We had hoped for snow totals to get juiced for Wednesday in order to bring school cancellations into play, but that does not seem to be the case for this Alberta clipper that will whip through our area tomorrow (Wednesday).

Snow total predictions are in the 1-3 range for Berkshire County. Higher elevation towns in the northeast slopes of the Berkshires will receive the most snow. Valley areas and southern Berkshire will receive just over an inch. Areas directly to our north have Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings (Adirondacks), so we are just on the edge of a significant snow storm.

Boston NWS favors higher snow totals for Northern Berkshire. We shall see.

Because the snow totals are relatively low, road crews should be able to keep up with the snow, and that means busses should not have any trouble making their routes on Wednesday afternoon. As we mentioned over the weekend, a few cautious school leaders might cancel after school activities but even those cancellations will be few and far between.

This is the short-range model called the NAM. It typically runs high so half of this prediction would seem about right.

The snow should end in the late afternoon or early evening and then it's going to get blustery. Winds in the 20-30 mph range are expected on Thursday, and we could see an additional inch of snow as upslope snows kick in from the departing storm. Some valley areas could get as much snow Thursday afternoon and evening as they do on Wednesday.

Image from Ken Mahan, Boston Globe.

Fortunately for us, the unsettled pattern continues. We are eyeing more snow on Sunday and perhaps a bigger storm for the middle of next week. It's all very tenuous right now, but another snow day before the holiday break would be delightful.

Snow Returns on Wednesday, Dec. 10

The week has started with a cold but relatively wind-less day so the real feel on this Monday isn't so bad.

Temps will fall throughout the night and we will flirt with our coldest thermometer reading of the winter when we wake up on Tuesday.

We do have snow in the forecast. While last week's storm was the preferred coastal storm, this week's storm is an Alberta clipper, which typically produces less snow, and that is absolutely the case this week.

Courtesy of NWS Albany.

We'll actually see two systems cruise on through. One will pass more to our north and give us a coating or 1/2" in the overnight hours on Tuesday. The second system will travel in a more southerly direction and give us more snow. Right now the models are showing 1-3" for the County with higher elevation locations getting more snow. We may even see the snow change to mixed precipitation and then rain especially in Southern Berkshire County.

Because of the midday timing of the bulk of the snow, we do not have any confidence in snow days or early releases for Wednesday. We may see a Winter Weather Advisory pop up on Tuesday, but a Winter Storm Watch is almost assuredly out of the question. After school activities may be cancelled on Wednesday, but those decisions will be scattered throughout the region.

The snow and rain ends late Wednesday night, and we will see periodic snow showers on Thursday as the temperatures return to the mid 20s to end the week.

Perhaps the forecast for snow totals will come up throughout the day tomorrow, but don't get your hopes up for any school-shortening decisions by Superintendents this week.

The North American model favors higher snow totals for Wednesday. The Euro is only showing 2.0 inches.

Looking Ahead to December 8-12

It was a good week of winter with our first snow day of the season on Tuesday and our lowest temperature of the season on Friday. Now that we have a snow base and continued cold in the forecast, hopefully we can build on what has started.

In the next week we are looking at a few chances to add to the base. Sunday night we may see a half inch, and then we are looking more intently at a Wednesday/Thursday wintery precipitation event.

Temps will ease a bit this weekend and move closer toward freezing for daily highs. But another cold shot of air--even colder than today's--will move in for Monday. Monday's high will be in the mid teens and Tuesday morning will very cold with temps in the -5 to -10 degree range. We suppose we could see a freeze delay for a school district or two but that seems like a long-shot.

The Euro-AI model is showing a more optimistic snow total for Thursday.

Some kind of frozen precipitation will fall from the sky on Wednesday afternoon, night, and Thursday morning. Models are not showing a lot of snow--only between 2 and 4 inches--and meteorologists are seeing a potential snow to mixed precipitation set-up. Temps will hover around freezing so wet snow and/or sleet and freezing rain are possibilities depending on your elevation.

If anything is going to happen on Thursday, then delays would be the more likely outcome. As of today it's too messy and variable for us to give you anything definitive other than a small chance for delays.

Have a great weekend, and thanks for supporting the staff at Greylock Snow Day.

1st Storm Is In The Books

A clean sweep for snow days for Berkshire County today! We definitely were cautious with the Confidence Meter, but most in our office had a good feeling about this first storm. The slightly late timing and the concern about mixed precipitation in South County were the key reasons we did not ramp up the Meter to 100%.

The storm did underperform slightly. We got 4.5" at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown. The storm ended up right in the middle between the Euro and the North American (GFS) models. The Euro continues to be just a little more accurate from year to year so we'll continue to feature that model when we are looking at potential snow days.

Observed snow totals as of 9 PM Tuesday.

We are now looking at some kind of disturbance for next Thursday and Friday. The models are not in agreement but it looks like we could see snow anywhere from late Wednesday night to Friday afternoon. It does not look organized like today's storm was, so 1-3" may be our best bet for snow at the end of next week.

Get ready for the cold. Friday morning is going to be brutal--we could see negative numbers--and the high on Friday will barely get into the 20s.

Thanks for reading, and we'll have more info about next week's snow over the weekend.

Cancellations for Tuesday, Dec. 2

Last update: 7:34 AM, Tuesday

A leading edge dusting has fallen, but the heavy stuff is not coming down for a few hours yet. Expect moderate snow to begin between 7 and 8 AM. Heavier snow could fall in the afternoon as some locations will get close to 10 inches. Enjoy your day off from school!

SNOW DAY:

Bement School

Berkshire Arts and Technology

Berkshire Community College

Berkshire Country Day

Berkshire Hills

Berkshire Montessori

Berkshire Waldorf

Central Berkshire

Clarksburg
Emma Miller

Farmington River

Florida

Hancock

Hillcrest Academy

Hoosac Valley

Lee

Lenox

MCLA

McCann

Mount Greylock

North Adams

Pine Cobble

Pittsfield

Richmond Consolidated

Rowe Elementary

Southern Berkshire

Southwest Vermont SU

First Storm (Dec. 2) Eve

The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Winter Storm Warning for all of Berkshire County for Tuesday. This is the development we were looking for and should ensure that most students in the County have a day off or shortened day of school.

More and more the models are starting to resemble each other. The Euro is still the party-pooper of the group, showing a 3-4" storm for our area. The two North American models--the short-term NAM and the longer term GFS--as well as the Euro's AI-enhanced model are all showing 6+ inches of snow.

Courtesy of NWS Albany.

The timing of the start of the storm is the only real negative. The good folks over at NWS Albany are saying it will start at 7 AM for all of Berkshire County. One great positive is it looks like plenty of cold air will be in place. Right now on Monday it may be in the low 30s where you live, but the mercury will steadily drop into the mid and low 20s as we move toward the morning commute hours and the onset of the snow.

In terms of the calculus of the superintendents, they are in a slightly tough spot. You never want to call the first snow day of a season and have it be a bust. But then again, you don't want to send children to school only to have them on buses when the storm really starts to ramp up in the early afternoon. And the early release is problematic for families. Some of those problems can be mitigated by calling it the night before, but there's still risk that 2-3 inches of snow will be on the ground at the time of the early release. You can see that the easiest decision is to just call the day off and hope we don't have too many storms later this winter.

We're adjusting the Confidence Meter higher as a result of the upgrade to the Warning. We'll likely post again this evening in the hope that some Superintendents phone in the snow day this evening.