Winter Weather Advisory for North County-- New Year's Eve

Happy New Year, all ye flake followers!

2026 is going to start with snow, quite literally. It should be snowing throughout Berkshire County when the clock strikes midnight this evening. An Alberta clipper will be making its way through our region. Forecast totals have risen due to the last few runs of the models, and we are expecting 2-5" this evening and tomorrow morning.

North County has a Winter Weather Advisory that will go into effect at 7 PM. With the lake effect snows and clipper and more upslope snows, many areas will see 2+" of snow by the morning. Revelers this evening now have an additional reason to sleep over or get a safe driver if they are planning on being out late.

NWS Albany

After the snow subsides Thursday morning, it will remain very chilly and windy. Highs will be in the low 20s for the rest of the weekend. And a few flurries are possible in the next four days but no storms.

As we look into our meteorological crystal ball, we're not seeing any clearly defined storms for the next 10 days. The models are all over the place. A few minor disturbances will give us an inch or two here and there, but at the nonce the GSD Staff is predicting a full week of school upon the return for most students on the 5th.

Cold Air To Whip In: Wind Advisory For Tuesday

After about a tenth of inch of ice Sunday night, the rain has moved in and has wiped out much of the snow gains we made last week.

Enjoy the temps in the 40s today (Monday) because it appears it's going to be several days--maybe even weeks--until we see temps that high. Heck, we may not see temps in the 30s for over a week from now.

Snow forecast through Thursday morning.

Temps are beginning their descent as we speak, and Tuesday's high for the Berkshires will be in the mid-teens. With the change in temperature, we will see high winds start to kick up tonight and into Tuesday. We have High Wind Advisory for Tuesday. And with the high winds, we could see lake effect flurries and squalls throughout the day Tuesday and into Wednesday. 

Because there's a lot of standing water due to the rain, icy spots could make for dangerous driving and walking conditions. Especially if we get a quick covering of snow due to a snow squall, hidden icy spots on roads and walkways could be very treacherous. Watch yourself out there!

Winter Weather Advisory -- Ice Alert for Sunday Night (Dec. 28)

Friday night's quick snow blast just about lived up to expectations. At the GSD Home Office in Williamstown, we picked up 3.5" of dry, fluffy powder. Other measurements we've seen throughout Berkshire County are in the 4-6" range with the higher totals in South County.

Today (Saturday) will be cold (mid-20s), but Sunday will warm up above the freezing mark as a rain storm heads our way. Even though we'll be above freezing in the afternoon, enough cold air will be in place at the start of the rain to create freezing rain conditions. Travel on Sunday night will be dicey.

Ice forecast for Sunday night. Conditions looking to be dangerous in Northern New England.

Eventually the freezing rain will give way to plain rain, which will fall most of the day on Monday. It will likely wipe out much of Friday's snow.

In terms of future storms, we are looking at possible winter weather the weekend of Jan. 3-4 and on Wednesday, Jan. 7. The week coming up will generally be cold with highs most days in the low and mid-20s. Lows at night will be mostly in the low teens, but Friday morning we'll see single digits when we wake up.

Watch the ice Sunday night and enjoy a pleasant week off!

Winter Storm Warning for Friday/Saturday, December 26/27.

It appears the storm path will be slightly more northerly, so NWS Albany has declared a Winter Storm Warning for all of Berkshire County. Yes! This means everyone should see close to 6" of snow. Folks in South County could see up to 8 or 9". Folks in the far reaches of North County may only get 4.5".

A nice upgrade for our snow totals from NWS Albany

As we indicated yesterday, this is going to be a fast-moving storm. Because it's so cold, the liquid to snow ratio is very high (13 to 15 inches of snow for every 1 inch of liquid). The snow will be very light and powdery and easy to move around. It's not supposed to be too windy tomorrow, so blowing and drifting of snow will not be an issue.

Travel should not be a problem on Saturday. Road crews will have plenty of time to clear main roads before most people are up and about in the morning.

Enjoy the fresh powder!

Channel 6 Albany weighs in. We always love their pink and purple color scheme.

Winter Weather Advisory for Friday Night (Dec. 26)

The National Weather Service in Albany has posted a Winter Weather Advisory for Berkshire County beginning at 4 PM Friday. The Advisory anticipates we will get 3-7" of snow. Realistically, the snow will start around 7 PM and come down moderately at times, especially for those in South County. It will be a quick hitter as snow should end by 7 AM.

There's a chance the storm will linger slightly later if the storm in a more northerly direction. If there is northward shift, we may get upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning especially in Southern Berkshire County.

Now we're talking!

For those who have travel plans, the worst times in the next few days will be Friday night and early Monday. Monday's storm will bring mostly rain but it expected to start out with a period of mixed precipitation, which could make it tough for driving Monday morning.

Let's hope this storm actually does what it's supposed to do. Unfortunately, all the snow may get wiped out as it is going to rain for almost all of Monday.

Let's hope these lines move north about 50 miles.

Weekend Snow (Dec. 26-29)

Merry Christmas to all who celebrate! And happy holidays to all who continue to check in GSD on a regular basis. We love that you love winter weather--and snow days, of course!--as much as we do. Thank you!

While Tuesday's storm certainly did not amount to much at all--only 0.2" at the GSD Home Office and no releases in Berkshire County--we have two new storm systems to get excited about.

Friday night's storm will be more potent than the Sunday/Monday storm. This storm will track to our south Friday night (onset time 7 PM) and last into early Saturday. This time around folks in South County will get more snow than those in the North. It's not a huge storm by any stretch--only about 3"--but any movement northward could drive up snow totals for all of us. 

NWS Albany

The Sunday/Monday storm might be more of a mixed precipitation event. Cold air will hold in place in Berkshire County when the next storm moves in, but the temps will quickly rise as the precipitation commences Freezing rain and sleet could make travel early on Monday difficult. Higher terrain towns may see all snow, but there is still a degree of uncertainty about the amount of frozen precipitation we'll see. The Staff will need to see a few more runs of the models to figure out what we should expect on Monday.

We'll have more updates about the Friday night snow soon!

The Euro-AI model favors more snow than what is being forecasted. We'll just have to see.

Tuesday Snow Update: Not Much New

Areas to our north are under a Winter Weather Advisory. A handful of schools in the Springfield have called in early releases. But at this point, no schools in Berkshire County have decided to shorten or cancel school for Tuesday.

The NAM (short-term) and Euro models are still showing 2-3 inches. The North American model is still bearish and calling for 4-5 inches. Albany meteorologists are saying that it will be slightly colder than expected and that there might be bands of moderate snow. So, there is an outside chance this storm over-performs on Tuesday.

Snow predication by the NAM (short-term) model for Tuesday afternoon.

Still, the timing is not great so we don't think there will be too many school-shortening decisions by Superintendents for those students still in session. We are not moving the Confidence Meter to zero, but we are definitely feeling low expectations for this minor storm.

We do see more snow on the horizon for the weekend. It's a complex set-up, but we could see more measurable snow Friday night and on Sunday. More details to follow.

We'll post cancellations or releases should they come in Tuesday morning.

Messy Tuesday (December 23)

For those who are in session this week, Tuesday is shaping up to be a messy day. The snow will start right before or during the morning commute, and we will see light snow throughout the day.

The early Monday runs of the forecast models are definitely showing more snow. The Euro is still showing widespread 2-3". The North American has veered sharply in a positive direction and is now showing 5" of snow. The NAM (the short-range model) is clocking in at 3-4" for most of Berkshire County. We definitely think the North American model has gotten into the egg nog a little early and is too exuberant, but we overall we can't complain about the trend.

NWS Albany

This storm will be another big headache for Superintendents. The start time makes the decision challenging, and calling a snow day on a 2-3" prediction is a tough sell to hardliners out there. An early release would be a good middle option but the roads will be just as snowy at the early release time as they will be at the end of the day. 

One interesting idea that came up in the GSD Staff meeting was the call for an early release the night before. This would give families additional time for travel or final holiday preparations. Most families are already home so starting vacation a few hours early would not be as disruptive, say, as an early release day would be on a random Wednesday in late January.

We'll do one more update later tonight.

Tapping the Breaks on a Tuesday Snow Day

Just a quick update on the snow situation for Monday.

We will definitely see snow on Tuesday throughout Berkshire County, and it will almost certainly be enough for a white Christmas, but the timing has now shifted to a slightly later starting time. It will likely not start early enough to trigger Superintendents to call a snow day.

Snow totals are still for 2-3 inches for all three models (Euro, Euro-AI, North American). These totals might change positively or negatively, but not a lot of variance is expected at this point. We could only see 1-2", but if the storm over-performs, still we'll only see 3-4". There's no chance of a developing "coastal bomb" that could lead to much higher snow total projections.

Here's the latest prediction from NWS Albany for Tuesday. We're now really going to dial in on the forecast for the hour of the start of the storm, as that will be the biggest factor that could lead to snow days or delays.

Tuesday Snow Day?

For those of you not already on break, we might have a developing snow situation for Tuesday, the last day of school before December break.

It's not going to be a lot of snow, but it might just be enough to affect the school day. The models took a nice turn in our favor and are both now showing a 2-3" of snow from a storm system that will move in from the Great Lakes area late Monday night or early Tuesday morning.

Because it's a clipper-type of storm, it will not have lot of moisture to work with. But it might just be enough for snow days or releases given the excellent timing. As of today the snow is expected to start falling before the morning commute and continue through the day, which would lead to slippery driving for the afternoon bus runs.

European model showing 1-3" for the Berkshires. Will it be enough?

Given the low snow total, we should be cautious not to get too excited about the prospects of a snow day or an early release. (While an early release is often a giant hassle, Tuesday might be the one great time for an early day as most families are already getting into vacation mode. We'll have more on Superintendents and their decision tomorrow.)

Our collective eyebrows are definitely raised, which means the GSD Staff will be monitoring the developments 'round the clock from this point forward. Many more details to follow. 

Rain, Wind, Snow in That Order

Schools are creeping ever closer to the much anticipated December holiday break, and we are still in a very active weather pattern. Unfortunately, no big snow storms are on the horizon so it looks like all of us are going to have to play out the string and endure full days of school until break.

Many schools begin vacation on Friday, but several Grinch-ier districts are making their students slave away until Tuesday the 23rd. Bah humbug.

As for weather news, the warm-up has begun. Temps will shoot into the 50s by Friday and the change in temperature will be accompanied by a good old-fashioned soaker of a rainstorm. Most locations in the Berkshires will see an inch or more of rain. Say bye-bye to the snow base in the valleys!

This is the rain forecast from the North American model for Friday.

Ushering in the warm-up and the rain will be heavy winds. NWS Albany has issued a Wind Advisory for Thursday night and much of the day on Friday. The strongest winds will take place early Friday morning. Power outages may occur as some gusts will top 40 mph in our area. 

After the wind and the rain depart, temps will plummet starting late morning on Friday. We will see approximately a 35 degree temperature change in less than 24 hours. Flash freezing of all the rain should lead to isolated slippery spots.

We could see a few flakes this weekend with no accumulation. We are looking more intently at a chance for a few inches of snow on Tuesday. The models are all over the place at the moment, but there is a chance for accumulating snow on Tuesday during the day. We also may get more snow late in the day on Christmas and into the 26th. 

Temps will stay below freezing starting Monday so any snow we get Tuesday will stick around and give us folks in the Berkshires a white Christmas.

Snowy Wednesday But Schools Will Be Open

We had hoped for snow totals to get juiced for Wednesday in order to bring school cancellations into play, but that does not seem to be the case for this Alberta clipper that will whip through our area tomorrow (Wednesday).

Snow total predictions are in the 1-3 range for Berkshire County. Higher elevation towns in the northeast slopes of the Berkshires will receive the most snow. Valley areas and southern Berkshire will receive just over an inch. Areas directly to our north have Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings (Adirondacks), so we are just on the edge of a significant snow storm.

Boston NWS favors higher snow totals for Northern Berkshire. We shall see.

Because the snow totals are relatively low, road crews should be able to keep up with the snow, and that means busses should not have any trouble making their routes on Wednesday afternoon. As we mentioned over the weekend, a few cautious school leaders might cancel after school activities but even those cancellations will be few and far between.

This is the short-range model called the NAM. It typically runs high so half of this prediction would seem about right.

The snow should end in the late afternoon or early evening and then it's going to get blustery. Winds in the 20-30 mph range are expected on Thursday, and we could see an additional inch of snow as upslope snows kick in from the departing storm. Some valley areas could get as much snow Thursday afternoon and evening as they do on Wednesday.

Image from Ken Mahan, Boston Globe.

Fortunately for us, the unsettled pattern continues. We are eyeing more snow on Sunday and perhaps a bigger storm for the middle of next week. It's all very tenuous right now, but another snow day before the holiday break would be delightful.

Snow Returns on Wednesday, Dec. 10

The week has started with a cold but relatively wind-less day so the real feel on this Monday isn't so bad.

Temps will fall throughout the night and we will flirt with our coldest thermometer reading of the winter when we wake up on Tuesday.

We do have snow in the forecast. While last week's storm was the preferred coastal storm, this week's storm is an Alberta clipper, which typically produces less snow, and that is absolutely the case this week.

Courtesy of NWS Albany.

We'll actually see two systems cruise on through. One will pass more to our north and give us a coating or 1/2" in the overnight hours on Tuesday. The second system will travel in a more southerly direction and give us more snow. Right now the models are showing 1-3" for the County with higher elevation locations getting more snow. We may even see the snow change to mixed precipitation and then rain especially in Southern Berkshire County.

Because of the midday timing of the bulk of the snow, we do not have any confidence in snow days or early releases for Wednesday. We may see a Winter Weather Advisory pop up on Tuesday, but a Winter Storm Watch is almost assuredly out of the question. After school activities may be cancelled on Wednesday, but those decisions will be scattered throughout the region.

The snow and rain ends late Wednesday night, and we will see periodic snow showers on Thursday as the temperatures return to the mid 20s to end the week.

Perhaps the forecast for snow totals will come up throughout the day tomorrow, but don't get your hopes up for any school-shortening decisions by Superintendents this week.

The North American model favors higher snow totals for Wednesday. The Euro is only showing 2.0 inches.

Looking Ahead to December 8-12

It was a good week of winter with our first snow day of the season on Tuesday and our lowest temperature of the season on Friday. Now that we have a snow base and continued cold in the forecast, hopefully we can build on what has started.

In the next week we are looking at a few chances to add to the base. Sunday night we may see a half inch, and then we are looking more intently at a Wednesday/Thursday wintery precipitation event.

Temps will ease a bit this weekend and move closer toward freezing for daily highs. But another cold shot of air--even colder than today's--will move in for Monday. Monday's high will be in the mid teens and Tuesday morning will very cold with temps in the -5 to -10 degree range. We suppose we could see a freeze delay for a school district or two but that seems like a long-shot.

The Euro-AI model is showing a more optimistic snow total for Thursday.

Some kind of frozen precipitation will fall from the sky on Wednesday afternoon, night, and Thursday morning. Models are not showing a lot of snow--only between 2 and 4 inches--and meteorologists are seeing a potential snow to mixed precipitation set-up. Temps will hover around freezing so wet snow and/or sleet and freezing rain are possibilities depending on your elevation.

If anything is going to happen on Thursday, then delays would be the more likely outcome. As of today it's too messy and variable for us to give you anything definitive other than a small chance for delays.

Have a great weekend, and thanks for supporting the staff at Greylock Snow Day.

1st Storm Is In The Books

A clean sweep for snow days for Berkshire County today! We definitely were cautious with the Confidence Meter, but most in our office had a good feeling about this first storm. The slightly late timing and the concern about mixed precipitation in South County were the key reasons we did not ramp up the Meter to 100%.

The storm did underperform slightly. We got 4.5" at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown. The storm ended up right in the middle between the Euro and the North American (GFS) models. The Euro continues to be just a little more accurate from year to year so we'll continue to feature that model when we are looking at potential snow days.

Observed snow totals as of 9 PM Tuesday.

We are now looking at some kind of disturbance for next Thursday and Friday. The models are not in agreement but it looks like we could see snow anywhere from late Wednesday night to Friday afternoon. It does not look organized like today's storm was, so 1-3" may be our best bet for snow at the end of next week.

Get ready for the cold. Friday morning is going to be brutal--we could see negative numbers--and the high on Friday will barely get into the 20s.

Thanks for reading, and we'll have more info about next week's snow over the weekend.

Cancellations for Tuesday, Dec. 2

Last update: 7:34 AM, Tuesday

A leading edge dusting has fallen, but the heavy stuff is not coming down for a few hours yet. Expect moderate snow to begin between 7 and 8 AM. Heavier snow could fall in the afternoon as some locations will get close to 10 inches. Enjoy your day off from school!

SNOW DAY:

Bement School

Berkshire Arts and Technology

Berkshire Community College

Berkshire Country Day

Berkshire Hills

Berkshire Montessori

Berkshire Waldorf

Central Berkshire

Clarksburg
Emma Miller

Farmington River

Florida

Hancock

Hillcrest Academy

Hoosac Valley

Lee

Lenox

MCLA

McCann

Mount Greylock

North Adams

Pine Cobble

Pittsfield

Richmond Consolidated

Rowe Elementary

Southern Berkshire

Southwest Vermont SU

First Storm (Dec. 2) Eve

The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Winter Storm Warning for all of Berkshire County for Tuesday. This is the development we were looking for and should ensure that most students in the County have a day off or shortened day of school.

More and more the models are starting to resemble each other. The Euro is still the party-pooper of the group, showing a 3-4" storm for our area. The two North American models--the short-term NAM and the longer term GFS--as well as the Euro's AI-enhanced model are all showing 6+ inches of snow.

Courtesy of NWS Albany.

The timing of the start of the storm is the only real negative. The good folks over at NWS Albany are saying it will start at 7 AM for all of Berkshire County. One great positive is it looks like plenty of cold air will be in place. Right now on Monday it may be in the low 30s where you live, but the mercury will steadily drop into the mid and low 20s as we move toward the morning commute hours and the onset of the snow.

In terms of the calculus of the superintendents, they are in a slightly tough spot. You never want to call the first snow day of a season and have it be a bust. But then again, you don't want to send children to school only to have them on buses when the storm really starts to ramp up in the early afternoon. And the early release is problematic for families. Some of those problems can be mitigated by calling it the night before, but there's still risk that 2-3 inches of snow will be on the ground at the time of the early release. You can see that the easiest decision is to just call the day off and hope we don't have too many storms later this winter.

We're adjusting the Confidence Meter higher as a result of the upgrade to the Warning. We'll likely post again this evening in the hope that some Superintendents phone in the snow day this evening.

Latest Developments on Tuesday's Storm -- Winter Storm Watch

Earlier today the National Weather Service in Albany announced a Winter Storm Watch for all of Berkshire County for Tuesday. This is an encouraging sign especially that we are 36 hours out from the start of the snow.

NWS Albany can now go one of two ways with this storm. They can upgrade us to a Winter Storm Warning on Monday, which means they think we're going to see 6+ inches of snow. Or, they could go with a Winter Weather Advisory, which means only 2-5 inches is expected.

Fortunately for us, meteorologists seem to favoring the Warning scenario. The models are definitely not in full agreement. The traditional Euro takes the storm farther out to sea, which means less snow and only the Advisory. The North American and the Euro AI model both show most of the county getting 6-7 inches. 

And now let us introduce you to our friend the NAM, another North American Model. It's used for shorter range forecasting. Well, here's what it's predicting today:

Love the NAM.

Do we think the NAM is right? Highly, highly unlikely. Is the NAM ever right? Our experience with the NAM with snow storms is rarely. But this map is enough to give meteorologists pause, causing them to lean toward higher snow totals for the area, which we do appreciate.

Tomorrow will be a big day and should give us more insight about the track and onset of snow. There's a lot of reason to be optimistic for snow days for many in Berkshire County on Tuesday. We'll need to temper our expectations (GSD Staff and readers alike) lest we get too far ahead of ourselves, but there's really been no bad news about this storm in the last 24 hours.

T-Minus 48 Hours (Tuesday, Dec. 2 Storm)

Many of us in the Berkshires are getting to enjoy a few scattered flakes today (Sunday). It's a nice mood-setter if you are out and about getting a tree or setting up your home decorations.

The big news, of course, is the potential coastal storm for Tuesday. The more information we've been able to gather, the more likely it appears we'll be seeing 4+ inches of snow on Tuesday starting around 5 AM and lasting throughout the day and into Tuesday night. 

Image courtesy of NWS Albany

Right now, we think it's a 50/50 proposition on whether or not school will be cancelled. We'll bump the early release up to 60%, but not a lot of Superintendents like the release, so for those districts it will be a full snow day or nothing.

This map shows our chances (70-80%) of getting 6+" of snow from the storm.

The things that meteorologists and models appear to agree on are that 1) there is a enough cold air in place for all snow; 2) the snow will start before or right around daybreak on Tuesday. What is less agreed upon is the track of the center of the low pressure system. Further south and away from the coast means less snow. Closer to the coast will allow more moisture to enter the equation and give us more snow. 

One model we've seen is showing almost an inch of liquid precipitation. If we use our standard snow-to-liquid ratio of 10 inches for every 1 inch of liquid, we should have no problem getting 6+ inches of snow.

This map shows a 70-90% chance for a Winter Storm Warning for the Berkshires (red areas). Map courtesy of NOAA.

It's only been good news so far today, so keep thinking snowy thoughts and locate those boots, shovels, and sleds. 

Update on the Tuesday Storm

The GSD Staff is deep into the Model Watch zone as we are under 72 hours before our first decent snow storm of the season.

Things are still looking good for measurable snow. What we're less certain about is how much the storm will impact the school day on Tuesday.

The models are both still showing measurable snow for most of southern and coastal New England. It definitely looks as if some places will see 8+ inches of the good white stuff. So much depends on the track of the storm, as usual.

The North American model is still coming in strong with 5-6 inches of snow for most in the Berkshires.

The North American (GFS) model forecast.

The Euro model, though, continues to push forward a more modest forecast. We would see measurable snow and messy roads but only 2-4 inches. 

The standard Euro model forecast.

Interestingly, the Euro model's newest iteration--an AI-enhanced ensemble called the ECMWF-AIFS--is showing widespread 6" for all of the Berkshires. It will be fun to see who wins the battle of the model wars come Wednesday.

Welcome to the party, AI-enhanced Euro model!

We see no need to move the numbers on the Confidence Meter just yet. We are really starting to like the potential start to the storm--5 AM on Tuesday--which could lead to many snow days because of the threat of terrible road conditions at the end of the school day. At least that's what the optimists in the office are hoping for.

We'll be dialing in on the timing and track as we get more information tonight and tomorrow.

Possible Nor'easter Next Week

In our last post we presented a less than rosy forecast for the first week of December. Well, that forecast could be completely wrong as models are now showing a chance for a nor'easter for Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Here's what the latest runs of the models are showing:

The Euro model (Friday PM run).

The North American model (Friday PM run).

The North American model (the GFS) is definitely out of its mind, but even if the storm performs 50% of what the model is showing, we're still in for a full day and evening of accumulating snow.

We do like that the models are starting to move toward agreement about the track of the storm. If we put the two models together, a 3-6" storm is a realistic scenario.

The GSD staff is now on full alert and we'll be updating about this storm daily.

Thanksgiving Week Forecast -- Still Waiting For A Storm

Happy Thanksgiving Week! We made it. And with this late Thanksgiving date this year, before we know we'll be on Holiday break for December. Time will fly because we'll be having fun.

This year there are 17 school days between Thanksgiving break and the December holiday break. And this means 17 chances for a snow day.

Unfortunately, the outlook for the first week of December is not that inspiring, but we'll get to the long-range forecast in a minute.

First, what can we expect for our Turkey Day week? After a good dousing of rain Tuesday night (close to half an inch), things will really warm up on Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s. It will still be gloomy, and it will also be very blustery. We could see some more rain Wednesday evening, but temps will return to more normal levels for this time of year on Thursday and gradually work their way down to the 30s for the weekend. 

Thanksgiving Day does look dry so everyone should be able to get outside for their pre-feasting exercise.

If you want snow this week, head west! This snow forecast is through Friday morning.

Locations west of here will see plenty of snow at the end of the week. We in the Berkshires might see a few lake effect flakes on Friday but otherwise we'll stay dry.  Over the weekend low temps at night time will be in the mid-20s, which will allow for plenty of snow-making at your favorite local ski facility.

We will have rain to end the long weekend and then winter sets in for the first week of December. High temps that week will be around freezing, and waiting at the bus stop will be slightly uncomfortable as each day will start with the mercury around 20 degrees.

Unfortunately, we are not seeing any bursts of precipitation during the cold(ish) snap in early December. Sunny skies will prevail for the first part of the week. 

So enjoy your time off this week, and keep thinking snowy thoughts for December!

Cold But Not Much Snow In The Forecast (week of Nov. 17)

The Veterans' Day snowfall came in slightly better than expected, and we registered 2.1 inches at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown. We benefitted from lake effect action and upslope snow that produced a few moderate bands around midday.

As we turn our attention to the next ten (or so) days before the Thanksgiving break, we see plenty of cold air early in that stretch but not much snow in the forecast. Tonight (Saturday) we will see rain and then a very blustery Sunday. There are Winter Weather Advisories to our west and north for tonight, but too much warm air will be in place for us to get any wintry precipitation.

NWS Albany

We might see a few flakes Sunday night into Monday morning, but other than that, that's it for snow for a while. The models are sending mixed signals about possible precipitation around Thanksgiving, but no snow storms are expected for the next two weeks.

We can expect temps in the 30s early in the week and then gradually the thermometer will top out in the high 40s for the end of the week and next weekend. It looks like Thanksgiving week will feature high temps in the mid 40s with lows in the high 20s at night.

We wish we had a more encouraging forecast to share. We'll have to be patient through the Thanksgiving break and then see what December will bring.

Snow in the Berkshires This Week (Nov. 10-14)!

It certainly will feel wintery this week as a piece of the polar vortex will break off and usher in the coldest air of the season so far. Due to this abrupt change in the atmospheric conditions, we should see a very minor snowfall in a significant portion of the Berkshires this week.

Alas, it will not be enough to cause a delay or a snow day as it looks like the snow will fall on Veterans' Day, one that many have off from school and work.

According to our observations of weather maps and models, we are expecting snow showers Monday night and possible accumulating snow on Tuesday, especially in higher terrain. At most we could see 1.5", but realistically we'll see a light coating on grassy surfaces before it quickly melts away the next day.

The North American model's snow prediction for Tuesday. Not much there. This image comes from the Sunday afternoon run of the model.

Just how cold will it be? Most of the week we'll see highs around 40, plus or minus a few degrees, but Tuesday will be particularly chilly. The northern half of the Berkshires and the hill towns will not likely get above freezing. And that's a major reason why snow is in the forecast for Tuesday. 

This brief weather-maker is not really anything to get too excited about, but it's always fun to see those first flakes of the year and remind us that the holiday season is just around the corner.

Think snow!

Welcome to Winter 2025-26! Let the Flakes Fly

The Greylock Snow Day staff cordially welcomes you back to all the flake following madness that we are expecting for the winter of 2025-26. It's great to be back and have all you loyal readers back "dialed in" on the wintry weather in store for us.

The weather pattern was active in October with one nor'easter and an almost one to end the month. Rain totals were above normal for the month (over 4.5 inches of rain compared our typical 2.8 inches). It's unusual that we had no snow at all as we usually get flurries or snow showers at some point, but we did not register any frozen precipitation at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown prior to Halloween.

Image courtesy of Northeast Regional Climate Center (at Cornell).

With the clocks switching back this weekend, it's time to start thinking seriously about our up-coming winter. Temps are starting to drop below freezing in the overnight hours, so we know snow and other frozen precipitation will soon be falling in our neck of the woods.

The long-range winter forecast for New England is only moderately encouraging. This winter we will be feeling the effects of a La Nina pattern, which generally means that temps will be slightly high for southern New England but colder for northern New England. Also, generally La Nina usually means a slightly wetter winter.

Translating this info into snow storms is tricky. Typically, snow totals be normal or slightly above normal for the winter when La Nina is in effect. Because of the increased chances for precipitation but the warmer temps, we will probably see several storms start out as snow change over to sleet then all rain. Also, we may get a moderate or heavy snow storm but then see the snow melt away in the following days. The good news about a La Nina winter is the increased chances for precipitation and storms.

According to two reliable models (the North American and the Euro), there is the chance for measurable Monday or Tuesday, November 10 and 11. The Euro is showing a possible 2-3" snowfall for Tuesday. The GFS (North American) is showing a more substantial event (see below). We'll keep an eye on it, but it's been our history with the models that they are typically shakier early in the season than in the middle of winter.

The Saturday (11/1) afternoon run of the North American model for Monday, November 10th.

Chance for Delays: Monday, April 7

The cool and wet pattern continues, and tonight into Monday we might see measurable snow. We've been flirting with snow in our area the last few storms, and tonight we finally might see the ground covered again.

Because it's so late in the season, we are not at all confident that schools will see delays tomorrow. The roads have warmed up, and this system is not going to produce all that much moisture. But the timing is excellent and it could very well be messy for the morning commute.

NWS Albany. Notice that this forecast is through Wednesday AM. More accumulating snow showers are possible Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning.

NWS Albany is telling us that areas above 500' of elevation are the likeliest to see measurable snow. The usual suspects in the eastern portions of the county will again have the better chance for a delay.

Snow should start to fall around 4 AM and continue until 11 AM. Hopefully it will start a little earlier than 4 AM because we'll need several hours of wet snow for it to eventually accumulate on the roads.

After much deliberation, we're going to go with a 15% chance for a delay tomorrow. Most schools will have a full day, but we might see a few districts all their students to sleep in for a few extra hours.

Spring Is Here; Delays Possible for Monday, March 24

Welcome back to GSD, followers of the flake! It's been a spell since our last update. We thought about sending out an APB for last Thursday night/Friday morning's snow, but we had a strong feeling the roads were too warm to generate any delays Friday morning. After all, did hit 70 in many parts of the Berkshires just a day before.

But enough with the old news chit chat. 

We have a developing situation that could lead to delays for some public school students tomorrow (Monday). The Berkshires have a Winter Weather Advisory for late tonight through late morning tomorrow. The timing for this small storm is chef's-kiss-terrific. And the reason this disturbance has an Advisory is a prediction for ice in some areas. If you are a fan of snow days and delays, then ice is your friend.

NWS Albany

Also, for this storm there is more cold air in place tonight than there was on Friday. This means roads will be colder and could slick up: inconveniently for bus drivers, but conveniently for students who wouldn't mind sleeping in on a Monday. These various factors that are in place tare making this storm much more intriguing from a prediction standpoint. 

NWS Albany

Unfortunately, because it's late March, we are not too bullish on this storm. Any schools/districts with high elevation towns (over 1000') have a much better chance for delays than valley schools. So this means eastern Berkshire districts (north, central, and south) will have a much greater chance for delays than schools more anchored to route 7. 

We think west/central schools have a 10% chance for a delay and eastern schools/districts have a 35% chance. That's not much but at least it's something.

If you have read this post all the way to here, spread the word. This one might sneak up on a few people.

Late Winter Blahs -- Snowcast for the week March 3-9

We picked up a quick inch yesterday (Saturday) as the cold front moved through and immediately changed the spring-like temperatures to that familiar deep winter feeling. Single digits were the norm for Berkshirites as we arose this morning.

Unfortunately, the cold air will not hold and we are in for a midweek warm-up. A storm with a lot of moisture will move through the area on Wednesday. Temps that day will be close to 50, so we are looking at a soaker of a rain storm. Over an inch of liquid is expected in western Mass.

Temps will return to normal over the weekend and again very light snow showers could occur. Not enough snow will fall to merit any discussion.

The long-range forecast is not entirely disappointing. The North American model is showing 1-2 inches for the weekend as well as on Tuesday, March 11. The Euro is showing lesser amounts for those storms, but it does predict a whopper of a storm for Friday, March 14. That would be an ideal day for a snow storm to break up the one month of the school year with no holidays.

Stay dry on Wednesday, and hopefully next week we'll have a big storm to get excited about.

The Euro for Friday, March 14. Daily prayers to the snow gods are recommended.

Delays for Thursday, Feb. 27

We have only about half an inch of snow at the GSD Home Office, so that means delays are few and far between this morning. Here's the list:

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Emma Miller 

Delays Possible -- Thursday, Feb. 27

We hope everyone has enjoyed the spring-like temps these past few days. It has been nice to shed the heavy winter coat and see the sun set later and later.

But winter sure ain't over, and we have a possible messy commute in store for tomorrow (Thursday), especially for those in the northern and high elevation towns of the county.

A clipper system will move in late tonight. Temps will be right around freezing so any precip that falls should come down as wet snow for several hours. Because roads have been warm lately, it will take a while for snow to accumulate on them. Total snow expected is 1" in areas south of I-90, 1-2" in areas north, and 2-3" in the northeast hilltowns. So, the usual suspects in those areas have a better chance of a delay: the hilltown elementary schools, Central Berkshire, and Hoosac Valley.

NWS Albany

The "glass half full" approach is that the timing looks good for snow to be falling through the "witching hours" (5-7 AM) in North County. The "glass half empty" outlook is that we are discouraged by the lack of cold air in place. The changeover to rain could happen around daybreak, which would limit delays on Thursday.

All in all it's a low confidence delay scenario. A few schools will get delays but most in the county will be in session for the entire day.

(But the past two Thursdays (before public school vacation) we were wrong in a good way, so will the third time be the charm?)

Snowcast -- Week of Feb. 24

The end of public school vacation week has brought milder and more predictable weather, but now we turn our attention to the school week ahead (starting on Monday, February 24).

Compared to the last few weeks, we are expecting milder weather and minor clipper systems to impact our area. With the milder air, we will see wet snow and rain.

There are three chances for precipitation next week. Monday afternoon into Tuesday; Tuesday into Wednesday; and Thursday. All three are clipper-type systems (which means low snow totals).

Courtesy of Pivotal Weather. We're very much on track for an average Berkshire winter.

None of these storms are showing to be particularly potent according to the models. The Thursday storm is given a better chance by the North American model--2-3"--but the Euro is not as confident about measurable snow.

So it's looking like a full week of school, but we will keep half an eye open for the Thursday storm to see if it can pick up any momentum.

The good news is that both models are showing more moderate snow for Monday, March 3rd. 

Enjoy the warm-up this weekend!

Winter Storm Watch for Saturday/Sunday Feb. 15/16

This weekend is shaping up to be a messy one. The first half of Saturday will be fine, but then things go downhill rapidly in the afternoon and evening with snow heavy at times. The storm will have a long duration as well, and precipitation will continue to fall on Sunday. What is unclear is the form of the precip on Sunday.

There are two parts to the storm. A big low pressure system will move in from the Ohio valley and bring us our first shot of snow. It will come down heavy at times Saturday evening. But this storm's center is going to track to our west, which means warm air from the south is going push into our area. The warm air will lead to sleet and freezing rain and then eventually rain.

NWS Albany

As the warm-up is happening, a secondary low pressure system is going to form on the coast to our south. This system could counteract the warm up and bring cooler air back into play, which would change liquid precipitation back to frozen precipitation. The models are not in agreement about this secondary low.

So, the total inches of snow with this storm are going to be hard to predict. We should be around the 6" mark, but who knows what the sleet and rain will do to compress the snow. And then if we get more snow from the secondary low, then that will re-raise our totals on Sunday.

Were this storm to have arrived on a school day, snow days would have definitely been in order for all students.

Right now we expect snow to start around 2:00 PM on Saturday, and precipitation in some form will continue through Sunday afternoon.

Wind, Snow, Rain, Cold -- In That Order

Another icy Thursday led to a clean sweep of delays and cancellations for today. Impressive for only 0.2" of snow and a little sleet at the Home Office in Williamstown (!). The only schools in the County in session for the full day appeared to be MCLA and Williams.

All the public school students are off next week, so Superintendents are sighing with relief that they get 10 days off to not think about the weather. (It's way too soon but one model is showing heavy snow for the Monday after vacation.)

In the meantime, we have a wild four days coming up. Here's what you should know:

*A Wind Advisory goes into effect at 6 PM tonight. Some gusts will approach 50 mph. Yikes! Power outages are possible, so there is a chance for a random delay or cancellation from the wind.

*Heavy snow Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Temps will be near 32, so it will be a wet and greasy snow. Travel will be difficult Saturday evening. The Berkshires should see 4-8" of snow before the changeover.

*Snow transitions to rain Sunday morning and temps rise into the mid 30s. A mostly wet day with ice possible in a few pockets early on.

*Bitter cold returns on the back end of the storm Sunday night, which will kick up squalls and upslope snow. We might get to 20 degrees on Monday but Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the teens. Hopefully the rain does not wipe out the snow base and folks can get out for fun outdoor activities on vacation those days.

NWS Albany. We think these totals will trend slightly higher tomorrow and Saturday.

Tonight, be safe out there with the wind. And we'll be sure to update everyone on the Saturday/Sunday snow event tomorrow (or Saturday morning at the latest).

(And thanks to John S, Matt S, and Tattiya M for caffeine-fueling the GSD Staff for the next few weeks. Much appreciated!)

Delays and Closings for Thursday, Feb. 13

[Updated: Thurs. 7:17 AM] Another Thursday storm has ushered in delays and closings. The forecast for ice is once again having a positive impact. 

SNOW DAY:

Florida
Gabriel Abbott

Southwest Vermont SVU

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Berkshire Arts and Technology

Berkshire Community College

Berkshire Country Day

Berkshire Hills

Berkshire Montessori
Berkshire Waldorf

Branches School of the Berkshires

Central Berkshire

Clarksburg
Emma Miller
Farmington River

Hancock

Hillcrest

Hoosac Valley

Lee

Lenox

McCann

Mount Greylock

North Adams

Pine Cobble

Pittsfield

Richmond

Southern Berkshire

 

Winners and Losers for Thursday, Feb. 13

The Winter Weather Advisory is going to go into effect starting at 7 PM tonight, but in general snow total predictions are down slightly (1-2") and ice predictions have held steady (0.05-0.16).

Current signs point to delays for districts in the eastern half of the county. The northeastern elementary schools are likely to have delays. And Central Berkshire, Farmington River, and Hoosac Valley all have a higher chance for delays than other districts.

NWS Albany

Still, there is threat of ice through 8 AM, which means widespread delays are possible for all Berkshire County students. 

Because the precipitation will be light and road crews will be able to keep up with the precipitation, we are lowering the chance for delay from 50% to 40%. The schools mentioned above are in the 75% chance range, but schools to the west and south are in the 20% chance range.

Once we get through Thursday, we have a possible snow-to-rain event for the weekend. Current projection for liquid precipitation is 1" or more. More details about that storm tomorrow.

Winter Weather Advisory -- Thursday, Feb. 13

Not too much has changed with the forecast for the Wednesday night and Thursday storm. NWS Albany has predictably announced a Winter Weather Advisory that goes into effect at 7 PM Wednesday and ends at 1 PM on Thursday.

The models have adjusted snow totals down slightly (1-2"), but ice totals are marginally higher. The key is going to be the time of the changeover to sleet and freezing rain. Ground temps at the time of the first bus runs (7-ish) should still be below freezing, which means mixed precipitation is likely for the commute. Given last week's response to ice, chances for delays on Thursday are good.

North American model for Thursday at 6 AM. Pink/orange is freezing rain. Purple is sleet.

Students on the east-facing slopes of the County will have a better chance for a delay. Students in the north will have a slightly better chance than students in the south.

We don't think any Superintendents will make their call Wednesday night, so this will have to be a wake-up-and-see kind of morning.

At this point if you really are hoping for a delay, you want to root for the cold air to stay in place as long as possible.

Delays Possible for Thursday, Feb. 13

It's a new week and more snow is on the way. This week is shaping up to be very similar to last week because we are looking at a snow/sleet event for Thursday and a bigger storm for the weekend.

Once again, Thursday's storm looks to be light. The difference this week is that snow will fall late Wednesday night into Tuesday and could change over to sleet and freezing rain at daybreak. Even though we're only expecting to get 1-3", the morning commute could be a mess with the ice forecast, which is why we think delays are likely.

We'll probably see a Winter Weather Advisory by Wednesday. 

The North American model for Thursday. We probably will not see this much snow, but it's in the realm of possibility.

The storm for the weekend is complicated. Models are not in agreement on the track or on the type of precipitation. It will definitely start as snow Saturday afternoon and then from that point it's unclear. what will happen. The snow could continue or it could transition to mixed precipitation Saturday evening then rain on Sunday. The farther north you are, the better chance you will have for snow. 

The models are showing a range of 3" to 8", but that range will narrow as we get a better handle on the track.

Saturday afternoon and night look like bad times for travel.

We'll have more about Thursday's situation in the days ahead.