With a record four-foot snowstorm this past weekend (Sept. 27-28) out in Montana that knocked out power and cancelled school, it was high time for the GSD Staff to dust off the ol' weather maps and storm models and get back to work.
Before we plunge right into it, we want to say thank you for reading. Predicting snow days is a labor of love. We mostly(-ish) get it right, and we hope to have a little fun along the way. Once again, we look forward to bringing you the best-est, most accurate, and timeliest information that we can this season.
Let's get on with the weather, and let's deal with the most pressing concerns first. We have already seen a prediction for snow in northern New England (mostly Maine and New Hampshire) for October 10th from the GFS model. While it is unlikely the Berkshires will see flakes from that system, they won't be that far away. So it's only a matter of time that you'll be reading these posts for real.
As for the long-range forecast for 2019-20, here's what we have to say about that:
1) Global warming is not working in our favor. July of 2019 was the hottest month (globally) that humans have experienced, since we've been keeping records. That isn't great news. Warm summers do not always mean warm winters, but we're clearly trending in the wrong direction on the overall temperature front.
2) The three-month forecasts for November/December/January and for December/January/February are for above average temperatures and average or near-average precipitation totals. These three-month forecasts are not ones we at GSD spend a lot of time on, so take them with a grain of salt. If they do prove to be accurate, we'll experience a below average winter. An average Berkshire winter usually yields around 60 inches of snow, with higher amounts in the hilltowns and lower totals in the valleys.
3) Forecast models are predicting neither an El Nino nor a La Nina winter. We'll be in the neutral phase, which typically yields an average or slightly below average winter.
So, that's a typically very bland forecast for this time of year. But bland isn't bad. Forty to 50 inches of snow--a slightly below average winter--is sure to generate enough snow days and delays to get us through the bleak mid-winter hours.
We do see a trend toward cooler temps over the next two weeks, with many days in the low to mid 50s. Temps in the evening will be dipping toward the freezing mark during several nights, so we are getting closer and closer to the first frozen precipitation of the season. Even if it doesn't happen in the next few weeks, it won't be long thereafter.
