Sunday/Monday Storm Update

The Berkshires will see an Extreme Cold Warning go into effect at 7 PM tonight. The temperature will drop below 0 tonight, and the wind is really going to pick up. Due to the cold and wind combo, frostbite can occur in only about 10 minutes of exposure. Taking your dog out Saturday morning is going to be challenging.

The phasing of two energy systems out west that we wrote about early in the week is going to happen. So, the coastal storm will stay closer to the coast and deliver a major snowstorm for the first time in a long time. The Euro model is showing a few more inches of snow for us than the North American model, but both show 7+ inches. 

Bring it on!

Meteorologists' consensus is that our area and much of Southern New England will see 10-18 inches of snow, with some parts getting 2 feet. Pittsfield has a 58% chance of exceeding 12" of snow. 

The snow is still expected to begin around noon on Sunday--give or take an hour--and continue through Monday afternoon or early evening. The heaviest snow will fall Sunday evening with rates of 1-2" per hour.

Most indicators are pointing to snow days for all for Monday, but there is a chance that we see just 8" of snow with most of it falling Sunday night as the storm takes a slightly more southern track. Eight inches is probably enough for a snow day decision, but if it wraps up earlier than expected, delays would be in order.

We'll have more snow prediction maps later today.

Major Storm Heading Our Way

It's wild how much chatter there is about this storm that's not scheduled to start until about noon on Sunday.

Thursday night's Euro model. Close to a foot for all!

Here are key pieces of info:

*A Winter Storm Watch is already in effect for Sunday/Monday, which is an earlier than usual posting of this kind of alert.

*It will be a long duration storm, perhaps lasting 30-36 hours. Heaviest snow will fall Sunday night with lighter snow rates expected throughout the day on Monday.

*The forecast for liquid precipitation is around 1.0 inch. The typical ratio of 12 inches of snow to every one inch of liquid is too low for this storm because of how cold it is. We will likely see 15:1 or 18:1 ratios. The snow quality will be light and fluffy.

*Blowing and drifting of the snow will become an issue Monday night into Tuesday, setting up possible delays on Tuesday.

*If NWS Albany moves the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning--probably Saturday morning--the only question will be when on Sunday your Superintendent is going to call for the snow day on Monday.

*But...the storm could shift south, which would significantly reduce our snow totals. It's not a slam dunk just yet.

  

Extreme Cold Then (Extreme?) Snow

"Maybe have your yard sticks located and ready?"

This was the question that caught our attention in Thursday morning's NWS Albany's Area Forecast Discussion of the coastal snow storm heading our way Sunday and Monday.

We certainly could be in for the long-awaited big one.

Before we get to the latest on the Sunday/Monday potential nor'easter, we do have a few days of dangerously cold temps to deal with. The Berkshires are already under an Extreme Cold Watch for Friday evening through Saturday. Wind chills may get all the way down to -30. That's no joke.

Meteorologists and forecast models continue to discuss a moderate to major snow event Sunday and Monday. The Euro and North American models are showing 5-8" for this storm, but we are seeing higher amounts forecasted from other sources. The snow should start by midday on Sunday and last until Monday afternoon or evening. If that's the case, we will see a snow day clean sweep for Berkshire County and all of Massachusetts.

Here are some maps to peruse until we can bring you more information:

Euro model

North American

Weather Channel/Intellicast. (Yes, that shows 12+ inches for CT and almost all of MA.)