No School for Monday?

We have an interesting development to report on that could impact the length of the school day on Monday. Unfortunately, it is not weather-related.

Due to a delay in rapid tests getting to teachers in some parts of Massachusetts, the Massachusetts Teachers Association is calling for the cancellation of classes on Monday to allow more time for Covid testing. Some schools in eastern Mass have already issued delays and cancellations for Monday. Newburyport, Lexington, and Watertown have either cancelled school or shortened the school day.

So, this weekend students and parents should be on the lookout for communication from their schools with any updates about a change to the schedule for Monday. Even though it's not really in our lane, we will post any news about delays and cancellations for our area if those come about.

You're On Vacation--What's The Weather Going To Be?

Happy Holidays, everyone!

Christmas Day was pretty dreary--the second rainy Christmas in a row for the Berkshires--and the hoped-for transition to snow on the back end of the storm--once again--did not materialize.

So far this winter has been a dud. The models have been giving us some hope with some of these storms, but except for the Thanksgiving weekend surprise 5 inches and a couple of inches on December 9th, this winter is stuck in first gear.

So...what's it going to do this week? Will it snow? Will it be cold? Are there any storms on the horizon?

Monday -- Decent day. Chilly by our standards this winter with the high temp unlikely to get above freezing. Possible inch of snow after midnight.

Tuesday -- Warmer. Back up to the low 40s, setting up a rainy Tuesday night with some sleet possibly mixing in for higher elevation towns.

Wednesday -- A rainy start but overall a grey day. Low 40s.

Thursday -- Hey, something new. Some breaks of sun. But temps still up into the low 40s.

Friday -- See Thursday.

Saturday/Sunday -- Now we're talking. Some models are showing a snow storm, maybe even a legitimate one. If it snows, we're looking at 3-5" on Sunday afternoon and night. (The North American model is the only one showing this storm; the Euro prognostication is for merely a dusting. But we'll be monitoring it all week).

Once again we are pinning are snow hopes on a storm that is a week away. Eventually the models have to get one of these storms right.

White Christmas?

For those who had school or work today, congratulations! You made to the start of another vacation. We need to celebrate small victories this year.

Now that snow days and delays are out of the equation for the next week and a half, let's focus on the chance for weekend snow.

Tonight, there's a very light clipper streaming across New York that should impact western Massachusetts later this evening. It's not going to be much, but we could see an inch or so in some spots. So, yes, we should see snow on the ground in most locations in the Berkshires by Friday morning.

We were hoping we'd pick up another inch or so late Friday night, but now the Saturday storm looks like a wet mess. Currently, it looks like we'll start with a wintry mix then change over to rain in the morning and continue through the afternoon. The Grinch-y rain will likely wipe out any snow on the ground. In the evening, then, is when we have some intriguing certainty. 

Some models, the North American in particular, is showing coastal intensification, which could change the rain back to snow. The Adirondacks and parts of Vermont should see snow on the back end of this storm, but the snow line could drop much further south and into the Berkshires. We are definitely not getting our hopes up at the GSD Home Office, but we could see a sneaky 2-3 inches by Sunday midday.

The North American model with an aggressive prediction for back end snow by Sunday afternoon. This map is not to be trusted.

Overall, there are still no major storms out there on the horizon. We'll certainly let you know when we spot one in the meteorological crystal ball. 

Cancellations and Delays for Wed. December 22

We have delays and closings! The first of the season on the first full day of winter 2021-22.

SNOW DAY:

Farmington River RSD

Richmond Consolidated

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Central Berkshire

Emma Miller Memorial

Mount Greylock Regional

Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday (Dec. 22) Morning

The National Weather Service in Albany snuck in Winter Weather Advisory this afternoon for the Berkshires. Unfortunately, it's not about snow. Ice is possible overnight, with some sleet and freezing rain possibly lingering into the morning commute. 

The precipitation will be light--under a quarter of an inch--and it should start shortly after midnight. There could be an initial period of snow but quickly it will change to sleet and then rain, which could lead to some freezing rain. High elevation towns will see the most wintry weather. Valley dwellers will see some ice but most likely, eventually, all rain.

As a result of the potentially slick morning ride to school, we could see a few delays tomorrow morning. Our confidence is low--10%--but one or two delays in mountain towns are possible. Keep half an eye open for delays when you wake up just in case the cold hangs in longer than expected.

Winter Weather Advisory for Saturday (Dec. 18)

There's isn't really much new to report, if you read yesterday's storm update.

The key details are as such:

*Snow moves into the county around 9 AM Saturday. 

*The precipitation starts as all snow then transitions to sleet shortly thereafter, especially in higher locales.

*Snow and sleet persist through the afternoon and early evening. 

*North County should see higher totals (4"); South County will be between 1-2"

 *Snow ends around 6 PM.

While it's not "the big one," it will make travel slow during the day. Road crews should be able to keep up with it, so as long as travelers give themselves extra time, widespread cancellations of any events due to bad weather should not be necessary. But if you're thinking about cancelling due to Omicron, that's another matter. 😟

Courtesy of NWS Albany

 

Winter Weather Returns For Saturday

We're now under 48 hours until our next storm, and this means that meteorologists are more confident with their predictions and anticipations for Saturday.

NWS Albany says that we will likely need a Winter Weather Advisory for Saturday. That should happen midday tomorrow. 

The Euro is our preferred model right now as it is currently showing between 3 and 6 inches for the Berkshires. The North American model bumps the bulk of the snow slightly to the north, which will be great for ski country. If the North American model proves to be more accurate, we'll still see snow for all of the county on Saturday, but more in the 1-4" range.

The Euro.

The North American

Another factor that will determine our snow totals is that sleet and freezing rain could mix in. Frozen precipitation could chop the expected number of inches in half. The staff at GSD actually think this is a likely scenario for many of us as the temps will be right on that freezing line midday.

Yesterday, we thought the peak of the storm would occur in the evening. Today, it looks like we have to shift the peak to the afternoon when the storm moves to our east and drags colder air down from the north to ensure that the precip falls in the form of snow. 

Most people have their Christmas tree already, but if.you were hoping to cut your own on Saturday, you'll have a snowy tree, but what great photos for Grandma! If you'd prefer not to deal with a snowy tree, the veteran move is to find a farm that's open on Friday and grab one then. Just some friendly holiday advice from GSD.

Tomorrow will be nice (40s), and then it will get colder overnight. Expect the snow to start after daybreak on Saturday and should finish up by midnight.

Weekend Snow?

We don't want to jinx it, but we just might see the return of snow this weekend and--longer term--colder temps and a more active storm to close out 2021.

But the next few days will not feel like winter. After a period of rain tonight (Wednesday), we're expected to hit 60 in most locations of Berkshire County on Thursday. Get outside and enjoy because it may be the last time we see 60 degrees until March.

[Before we talk about the upcoming snow, we did some internet sleuthing around--really, we just looked at a few posts from last year--and discovered that we had pretty brutal cold snap from Dec. 16-19 last year with highs in the teens and low 20s in that stretch. But it did warm up again after that, culminating with a 60-degree Christmas day last year. So, it is highly likely, given the overall warming trend happening on the entire planet, that 60-degree days in December are, unfortunately, here for good.]

Friday will still be mild (mid 40s) before the temps start to drop as a storm moves in from the east-southeast. Right now it looks like the track is favorable to drag in slightly colder air than had been expected. This means the precipitation on Saturday--starting in the afternoon--could start as snow, transition to a mix or rain (depending on your elevation), and then transition back to snow after midnight on Saturday. Both the Euro and North American models are showing 4-5 inches of snow for much of the Berkshires by midday on Sunday.

Euro model prediction (as of noon Sunday)

There is not, however, a lot of meteorological certainty about the track of the storm. If it jogs to the north at all, we'll see more rain. But if it does what the models think it's going to do, we could have tricky driving conditions for Saturday night's holiday parties and a shovel-able/plowable amount to deal with Sunday morning.

Even though it's a weekend snowfall, let's hope it happens if at the very least to enhance the holiday atmosphere.

As for future storms, there are some bigger changes afoot to sweep away the warm air we've been experiencing and to allow cold air to get a good foothold. Some of the longer term guidance is showing the possible ingredients for a conveyer belt of disturbances to impact us during the vacation week between Christmas and New Year's. 

We'll believe it when we see it, but more consistent wintry conditions should be upon us soon. 

Fizzle-di-do

The moderate snow event we were hoping for has slipped out to sea. We should all see snow in the Berkshires on Wednesday, but we'll be lucky if anyone gets over 1" of the good white stuff.

The timing is such that it could result in slippery commutes. Some models are showing a brief period of snow at daybreak and then more later in the afternoon. Others show snow arriving around mid-morning. Because there is so little moisture associated with this storm--and we use that term very loosely--driving conditions should be fine in the AM and for the ride home from school in the afternoon. It would be downright shocking if schools cancelled afternoon activities tomorrow due to the snow.

NWS Albany

Our next best chance for snow might be a few weeks out. Temps are expected to rise into the 40s and 50s next week.

All Eyes on Wednesday

This just in from the bizarro weather world of 2021: parts of Hawaii have been issued a blizzard warning with over a foot of snow expected in addition to near 100 mph winds.

Over here in the Berkshires, we might just see some measurable snow in the middle of the upcoming week.

But first, a few flakes may fly on Saturday night. A clipper system will track well to our north, but residual precipitation could pop-up in the aftermath. Some higher elevations could pick up an inch, and the rest of us valley dwellers will see a dusting or, at the most, half an inch.

The big Monday storm we had been hoping for will be a rain and wind storm, with emphasis on the wind. On Monday we'll see gusts potentially approaching 50 mph. That's something worth keeping an eye on.

About a week and a half ago we did mention a long-range model projection for a bigger storm the week of December 6. Well, that model may have actually gotten one right as the Euro and North American computers are both in agreement about a moderate snow event for Wednesday. Three to five inches are likely. Of course a lot can change in the next few days, but the conditions seem ripe for a decent snowfall. The timing, however, does not look great for snow days, but we're going to monitor it 'round the clock for any changes.

Except for the chance for snow on Saturday night, the weekend should be dry and seasonably cool (mid and high 30s). Conditions will be prime for tree procuring and outdoor decoration hanging. Enjoy.

Snow on Hold

A few days ago we outlined the possibility for several snow storms in the coming days. While that hasn't entirely worked out for, the encouraging news is that the storm pattern is still very active, and we'll have at least one more crack at a snow day or delay in the next 7-10 days.

We may see a short period of wet snow tonight, but it will change over to rain and drizzle tomorrow.

The Sunday/Monday storm that we were hoping would "go coastal" is going to track very far inland. Being on the east side of the storm means warm air will stream in from the south, turning any initial snow to rain. Alas, Monday is looking like a dreary, soggy day.

Snow, though, will come back into the picture Wednesday into Thursday of next week. Another clipper system will move in from the west. Only 1-3 inches of snow is expected, but the commute could be messy enough to warrant delays on Thursday.

In case you were wondering, this fall/winter has produced a historically low amount of snow. Only 10% of the US has snow cover right now, which is half of what we usually see by December 1. A good snow pack helps keep temps down, which obviously helps to create more snow.

Not much snow out there anywhere.

Flake followers need to keep the faith. At some point--on a school day--we'll get enough cold air in place with enough liquid precipitation to give us a day off.

Snowcast: Week of November 29

With light flurries falling at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown this afternoon, it's time for this week's snowcast.

And we do have some snow to forecast.

First up is a minor disturbance for Thursday into Friday. It's a clipper system, which means it won't be a big snow maker and there's some doubt it will even fall as snow. But we could see another inch of slush in the valleys and a few inches in the higher elevations. Given the possibility of rain and the low amount of moisture, we don't think the school day will be shortened on Friday.

Next up is a potentially bigger event for Monday. The models are showing a more substantial storm in the south that could move up the coast, intensifying along the way. There's an even-money chance that the storm goes out sea or goes further inland, but some of the model runs want to bring it up the coast. This would yield a nor'easter, and we know what that means for our neck of the woods. 

The is the Euro model showing a big storm for Monday. We're not predicting this will happen, but if everything goes perfectly, this is what it will look like. 

Whether we get snow or not, these two potential snow storms show that we're in an active pattern. It certainly feels as if we'll get at least one snow day before December holiday break, and let's all hope it's next Monday.

Outlook For Delays on Monday

Generally speaking, yesterday's storm was an over-performer and got the winter of 2021-22 off on the right foot.

We ended up with 5-8 inches in the county with a few higher elevation towns into double digits. Had this storm fallen on a school night, we would have seen delays instead of full snow days as the bulk of the snow wrapped up shortly after midnight.

The good news is that more snow is on the way. The bad news is that there isn't much energy associated with the next storm. The last few runs of the models suggest we'll only get half an inch to 2 inches of snow. The timing is good--it will start around midnight Sunday--but the snow will probably stop falling by daybreak.

Just for fun, we will indicate a small chance for a delay or two on Monday on the ol' Confidence Meter, but it's more likely that all students will have a full day of school on our return from Thanksgiving break.

More or less a dud.

As for our next big weather maker, not much is in the offing this week coming up, but we are keeping an eye on a moderate rain/snow event for Monday, December 6.

The 1st Winter Weather Advisory of the Season

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Northern Berkshire county. Pittsfield and towns north should see an inch or two of snow later today, with higher elevation towns picking up 3-6" of snow. And anyone who lives above 1500' feet could easily see double digit snow totals by Saturday morning.

The Euro's snow prediction for today and tonight

Most of us in the county experienced some rain early this morning (5-6 AM), and there will be a pause in the action before the rain begins again and starts to transition to wet snow as the temps slowly start to decrease throughout the day. It does not take a trained meteorologist to tell you that as the temps go down, the relative dryness of the snow starts to go up. Folks in the valleys will mostly see a heavy slushy snow, while those in the hill towns will gradually transition to higher quality snow.

Channel 6 in Albany

In terms of travel today, the worst time would be between noon and 9 PM, unless of course you are driving south or east. Those areas should stay all rain, or if does snow there, it will not accumulate on most roads because the ground is still above freezing.

As for Sunday night's storm, the models are less optimistic about the storm redeveloping off the coast close enough for moderate snow. The Berkshires should still get some snow, but it will only be nuisance level snow of 1-2". Things are still fluid, as they say, and the projected timing is such that the morning commute could still be impacted.

Today could be tricky; be prepared for slow travel later today.

Giving Thanks: A Cornucopia of Snow Opportunities

Happy Thanksgiving, friendly Flake Followers!

It might be cold outside, but the snow maps are really starting to heat up. But because there's so much to do today with food prep, family outdoor time, parades, and designated napping time, we're going to cut right to the chase regarding the several snow opportunities we're eyeballing for the next few weeks.

The Appetizer: We'll see some rain later this evening (Thursday), but the rain will shift over to snow in the higher elevations. Northern Berkshire hill towns would be the most likely recipients of accumulating snow (but only an inch or two). On Friday, the wind will pick up and snow showers will abound. Given the sporadic nature of snow showers, we could see some light accumulation by Saturday morning. Road conditions, though, should be fine.

Matt Noyes of Channel 10 Boston

The Main Course: There's an outside chance for moderate snow Sunday night into Monday, and our crack staff at the Home Office is keeping a keen eye on this storm. A storm will slide in from the midwest and potentially intensify off the coast of Maine. Some of the models take the storm out to sea, but others keep it closer to the mainland. If you're rooting for a snow day or delay on Monday--both are certainly within the realm of possibility--start rooting hard for close-to-Maine coastal development.

Henry Margusity is bullish on moderate snow for the Berkshires by Monday.

The Dessert: Long-range modeling can be ridiculously inaccurate, but some models are showing a blockbuster event in two weeks. It probably won't happen, but it certainly is fun to think about. Snow days and delays appear to be right around the corner.

Have a great holiday, everyone, and you can expect regular updates about the Sunday night/Monday storm in this space over the weekend.

It's No White Thanksgiving

The "potential big storm" that had recently been hyped up by various weather and news outlets will arrive Sunday night and last throughout the day on Monday. But, most unfortunately, it will be a rain event.

Moderate and heavy rain is possible on Monday. Once the storm exits Monday night, we could see periods of snow showers on Tuesday with some minor accumulation in the higher elevations. But this storm is a nothing burger, and we'll have to wait until December for a measurable snow event for the entire county.

Once the rain clears out, we'll have chilly day Tuesday--mid 30s--and then we'll low 40s and dry conditions for the rest of the week. Turkey trots, backyard football, and pick-up soccer will all be on for Thursday.

Looking to the long-range forecast for any hints of potential snow storms, we simply do not see anything. The temps should keep us in the ballpark for snow should any storms develop, but the overall pattern is looking calm for a few weeks.

On a brighter note, most of the Berkshires got a squall this afternoon (Friday) to at least remind us of what snow looks and feels like. Expect similar squalls on Tuesday for our area.

Possible Turkey Week Storm

You're bound to hear it sooner or later, so we might as well get out in front of it. The European model is predicting a whopper of a northeast storm perilously close to the big holiday travel day before Thanksgiving.

In no way is this storm a certainty for significant snowfall for the Berkshires. The model is showing heavy snow for the middle of Pennsylvania, central New York and northern New England by the end of the day on Tuesday. The Berkshires would only see a few inches. But that's today's run of the models and a lot will likely change by next week. 

Today's Euro model prediction for snow next week.

This storm could also just as easily go out to sea or be an all rain event.

Still, it bears watching and, snow or rain, it could impact millions of people's travel plans on Tuesday and Wednesday.

We'll let you know should any signs suggest that we're going to get measurable snow next week.

We're Back: Winter Forecast Preview 2021-22!

Sing along everybody, because it's the most wonderful time of the year! Snow is just around the corner and it's long-range winter forecasting time!

That means GSD is back and readier than ever to translate the mumbo jumbo, cut through the hype, and--hopefully--deliver useful weather advice so you can plan your school and work weeks. Delays, snow days, remote days--you're thirsty for them and we're on it. For the winter of 2021-22, we pledge to never, ever lead you astray.

Because a few flakes are showing up on the smartphone weather apps the week of November 15, curious bystanders on the streets have been pestering GSD Staff members with queries about what the winter of 2021-22 will present us denizens of the Berkshires. We have stared into the meteorological crystal ball, and we have some ideas:

Experts are saying that New England will see slightly higher temps this winter and average precipitation amounts due to La Nina conditions. Just to remind you, a typical Berkshires winter yields about 70 inches of snow, and last season we were right around that mark throughout the region.

If La Nina is here to stay, then the upper midwest typically sees more precipitation and the southeast sees higher temps. But the big X-factor is climate change and the extremes we have been seeing. Despite the forecast for slightly higher temps and average snowfall, we still could very likely see several major storms this season that could skew our snow totals in a positive direction.

A few things you can count on. 1) We'll have a period of sub-zero temps that will last 3-5 days, typically in January. 2) At some point we'll see a stormy pattern that brings us three storms in a three-week period, most likely in the late January or February period. Those storms could be snow-to-slush-to-rain or they could be direct hits. 3) History tells us we'll get a big storm in December or March. We haven't had a March blockbuster in a while, so maybe 2022 is our year. 

Overall, though, our best guess is that we'll get 60 to 70 inches of snow this winter.

Currently, we're looking at a chance for high elevation snow Friday night into Saturday and then wet snow on Monday. There's little to no chance the snow will accumulate enough to impact the length of the school day on Monday, but of course we'll keep an eye on it. We just had a stretch of three fall nor'easters (one hit, one half hit, and the other went out to sea) and then a two-week quiet period. It may take another week or two until we get back into a stormier pattern.

We're excited to be back in the GSD Office. The supercomputers are humming and ready to make snow predictions. As always, we'll post updates as well on Instagram, Twitter, and Facebook.  We'll have an update about the Monday snow situation over the weekend. 

Closings, Remote Days and Delays for Friday, April 16

Snow is falling at the GSD Home Office (7 AM) and we have clear streets and about 3/4 of an inch on grassy surfaces. Snow reports in Savoy and Florida show 5-6 inches of snow, as predicted. The temp will climb throughout the day, converting the snow back to rain for most of us below 1500 feet. And it should snow/rain for most of the day.

Here are today's closings and other announcements:

SNOW DAY:

Emma Miller

Gabriel Abbott

Mohawk Trail

North Adams

OTHER:

Child Care of the Berkshires -- OPEN but no transportation for Northern Berkshire

Winter Storm Warning for Northern Berkshire; Winter Weather Advisory for South County

In the wee hours on Thursday, NWS Albany has decided to go with a Winter Storm Warning for Northern Berkshire county and a Winter Weather Advisory for denizens south of Pittsfield. These severe weather alerts go into effect at 8 PM this evening.

The amount of liquid precipitation will not be a problem. There will be a lot. The timing of the precipitation will also not be a problem. It's just about perfect for a snow day decision. But the big meteorological problem is the amount of cold air. 

As we indicated earlier in the week, we're not confident about the cold air. But the models are keeping us from fully downplaying the potential severity of this storm. The Euro is now trending upward with its snow prediction (8-10") for the county, and the North American models continue to show off-the-charts snow totals--9-12 inches south and 16-20 inches north. Yes, the models are often wrong, but even if we get half of what the conservative Euro model is predicting, we're still in for a moderate to heavy snowfall. 

But given that this storm is elevation dependent, here's what we are projecting could happen: 

*Schools in the northeast corner of the county--Emma Miller in Savoy, Gabriel Abbott in Florida, Rowe Elementary, Clarksburg, Hoosac Valley schools, maybe North Adams--could have to go fully remote or could call a snow day. 60% chance.

*Central Berkshire has a good chance of a snow day or remote day because of its district's hill towns. 60%.

*Mount Greylock has a lesser chance but the stretch of route 7 around Brodie Mountain will likely be hazardous at some point early Friday. 50%.

*From Pittsfield south, it's probable that snow will accumulate on grassy surfaces and dirt roads but not on paved roads, thus chances of snow or remote days will be limited for those schools. Delays would be a more likely scenario, but we'll have to keep an eye on Farmington River as the elevation there could lead to deeper snow totals. 10% chance for snow days; 40% chance for delays.

In summary, schools on the Vermont border will have a better chance of snow days and remote days. Towns with east-facing slopes will also have a better chance of a day off or remote day. The southwest quadrant of Berkshire County might eke out a delay but probably will be business as usual.

Channel 22 in Springfield weighs in with an assertive forecast.

It's a spring storm, so all of this snow talk could be for naught and be a washout. Regardless of what happens, we need the precipitation. If you happen to get a snow day out of it, then that will be nice pre-vacation gift from Mother Nature.

Spring Storm Update

We're still under a Winter Storm Watch in the Berkshires. Very little has changed to the forecast since yesterday. And because of the relative stability of the forecast, we are starting to think that all parts of Berkshire County will see measurable snow from this event.

Even though the temp will not drop below freezing on Thursday or Friday, there will be enough cold air aloft to convert the precipitation to snow.

East facing slopes in elevations above 1500 feet are expected to see half a foot. The rest of us will be in the 2-4 range. Because of the timing of the storm, the Friday morning commute is likely to be sticky.

The models are still in wide disagreement. The Euro is holding steady with a 3-5" forecast; the two North American models are still bonkers, showing 8-10" in the Berkshires and up to 19" in central Mass. That outcome just seems preposterous, so we are going to favor the Euro for this event.

We're including this North American model (the GFS) in here just for fun. Do not take this model seriously.

Thursday is going to be wet for most of the day. The snow should start to fall after most folks are asleep Thursday night. And we'll know Friday morning whether this storm is a bust or a blockbuster. School officials will have a tough decision to make on Friday, and for some districts that could mean a full snow day.

More tomorrow!

You Simply Knew This Was Coming

[7am Wednesday Update: A Winter Storm Watch has been posted for all of the Berkshires. Over six inches is possible in elevations above 1500 feet. Lesser amounts in the valleys.]

The weather gods had been looking down kindly on the Berkshires for the past month. Well, now it's time to pay the proverbial piper.

Measurable, plowable snow is possibly headed our way for Friday. NWS Albany is all in a dither with this spring storm--a week of calm weather in the 70s will do that to you--and advocating that we keep the shovels and snow boots handy.

We have a ton of moisture moving into the area on Thursday, and the precipitation will come down moderately and heavily overnight and into Friday. Here is a sentence we do not see that often from NWS Albany: "Explosive secondary cyclogenesis is likely." Translation: "We have ourselves a nor'easter."

Historically, these spring storms do not pan out. More often than not there isn't enough cold air in place, and it ends rainy with wet flakes mixed in. But because this storm has the potential to be very powerful, it could draw enough cold air into the region to turn the rain drops to snow flakes.

Those in the higher terrain will likely see measurable snow, and we'll have to see just how deep into the valleys the snow line falls. Right now, the models are showing a VERY robust storm. The Euro has us in the 3-5" range; the North American is predicting 9-10" for the Berks; and a second North American model tops us out at 11-13". We think these numbers are running high, and the Euro prediction will likely end up being more accurate. But you never know, which makes this weather prediction game fun.

The Euro model's sensible forecast.

The NAM's, might we say, aggressive forecast.

We won't be surprised to see Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Watches get called for our area tomorrow.

Also, because snow is expected to come down Thursday after midnight, several schools could see delays, snow days or full remote days on Friday.

This storm definitely bears watching; we'll have at least one update tomorrow.

Light Snow Monday

Our run of storminess will continue this week, but we will see signs that the end of winter is nigh. Temps will be up and precipitation amounts will be relatively light.

Expect a few inches of snow by sundown tomorrow. Snow should start late morning, and it could make for a slightly slower afternoon and evening commute back home.

Wednesday will feel downright spring-like, with temps well into the 40s. We would not rule out someone hitting the 50 degree mark.

On Thursday, temps will moderate to more normal late winter levels, and then on the weekend we could see the return of wintery weather. But, again, the forecast is only for very light amounts.

Take it easy on the roads tomorrow afternoon, and then settle in for a relatively quiet week.

Winter Weather Advisory (Again)

As far as winters go, the 2020-21 season has been tremendous. Sure, we had a big snow early and then a dry spell for many weeks, but since the start of the New Year, it's been a banner winter. The conditions have simply been perfect for outdoor activities.

But some of that "best winter ever" vibe took a hit with the poor snow total, sleet, and rain from Tuesday's big fizzle. And let's be honest--it's hard not to carry that disappointing feeling into this end-of-the-week storm.

Once again we've been downgraded from a Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory for the Thursday/Friday event. At one point we were looking at 6"--these models have been a little shaky lately--and now it looks like we'll land in the 2-4" for the Berkshires when the snow stops by Friday afternoon.

This is fine, but when's the next big one coming?

Yes, a few inches of snow will replenish the base, but it just feels like we need a few more big storms--and the accompanying Big Storm Excitement!--to make this winter one for future trips down Memory Lane.

As for the next few days, what do you really need to know? Snow should start falling late in the afternoon tomorrow throughout Berkshire County, and it will continue well into the middle of the day on Friday. The morning commute on Friday will be slow. In general, though, because the snow will be relatively light for the duration of the storm, travel Thursday night and during on the day on Friday should be manageable. 

The weekend looks pretty great. Highs in the low 30s, lows in the mid-teens. And some sun! Get outside and enjoy this late winter weather. 

We're keeping an eye on more snow for Monday afternoon and night. We'll have more details over the next few days.

Winter Storm Watch For Thursday/Friday

Storm #2 is upon us. NWS Albany announced a Winter Storm Watch for the Berkshires this afternoon. The timing looks to be a few hours earlier than we were expecting a few days ago. The Watch starts at 7 AM Thursday and ends at 4 PM on Friday. This means snow should begin by 10 AM for Berkshire County.

The storm timeframe means it's a longer duration storm than the Monday/Tuesday fizzle. Something working in our favor is that we're going to get a strong shot of cold air tonight and tomorrow--highs in the low 20s for Wednesday--so the conventional wisdom from the experts is that this will be a mostly snow event. But a mix of sleet is still possible for South County and portions of Connecticut.

We like what you're forecasting, NWS Albany. 

Forecasts 36-48 hours in front of the past few storms have been aggressive (with snow totals) but then have been scaled back as we have gotten closer to the storm's onset. Let's keep an eye out to see if that trend continues for this storm.

In case you we worried about the storm train slowing down, we're expecting measurable snow for Monday the 22nd and on Thursday the 25th. So stay tuned.

Snow & Sleet Again

We do have a few cancellations/delays to report this morning: Child Care of the Berkshires has cancelled transportation but will be open at 9:00 AM. Also, Pine Cobble School is operating with a two-hour delay.

As for the weather, expect the rain to end later this morning, and we'll have a damp, humid and unseasonably warm day. All of us should see 40 degrees by this afternoon except in the higher elevations with maybe a glimpse of the sun possible.

There is enough of a snow base to handle the rain and snow. Then things are really going to get crusty as the temps will drop almost 30 degrees in about 15 hours starting this afternoon. When you wake up on Wednesday, the thermometer will read in the low and mid teens. If you don't deal with the slush on your driveways and walkways today, you'll be stuck with it that way until it gets covered with snow on Thursday night.

Yes, we have another moderate storm right around the corner. Again, it looks like ice is going to factor in and keep snow totals down--especially in South County--but there should be a longer period of snow for the entire county before that transition occurs.

The North American model snowcast by the end of the day on Friday. The Euro is similar, giving us about an inch more. (Image courtesy of Pivotal Weather.)

Right now the hours of impact appear to be Thursday night through midday Friday. The official GSD guesstimate (as of today) is 3-6" with lower totals south and higher totals in the northeast corner of the Berkshires. Hopefully the storm will be enough to restore the hit to the snow base we're getting today due to the rain.

 

Storm Downgrade

Sadly, we've been downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory for tonight and tomorrow. We'll see a round of snow showers during the day (Monday) with some minor accumulation, but the actual storm will not arrive until well after dark this evening. Snow totals will be under 4 inches for everyone in Berkshire County, and sleet will mix in, further suppressing the amount of snow we'll see.

The simple fact is that the warm edge of the storm will push through the Berkshires into southern Vermont. A few days ago, that warm edge was only supposed to make it as far as the Mass/Conn border, but the storm track kept creeping northward.

Here's a comparison look at the Euro model from two days ago and then from this morning:

That's only a 90 mile movement, but for the set-up for this storm, its significance is the difference between a major storm and a practically a nuisance snow.

Even though snow totals are down, the sleet/ice bears watching. We are not forecasted to get too much ice (a little more than a tenth of an inch), but Tuesday morning's commute will be slow. By midday lingering snow showers and freezing drizzle will pull out of our area.

This storm's fizzle will allow us to zero in on the Thursday/Friday event, which at the moment is still on track and should bring 4-6" of new powder.

Here's what the North American model is predicting right now by Friday evening. This map will assuredly change, but the Euro and NA model are much more in line than they were for tonight's storm.

Storms (Plural) A-Comin'

Superintendents of the public schools get a break this week. With two possible sizable storms to contend with, they would have lost some sleep Tuesday and Friday morning.

Before the big(ger) storms arrive, we have a few nuisance events to deal with. We might get a dusting or half inch Saturday evening, and then a bit more snow very late Sunday night, especially in South County.

The big snow of the week looks like it will occur Monday afternoon into Tuesday. We already have a Winter Storm Watch in effect. It's a little unusual for NWS Albany to call a Watch this far out in front of a storm, so it's a good indication of their confidence that a moderate or heavy snow fall is on the way. Get the shovels ready!

Right now it looks like snow will start to fall midday on Monday and last all the way through a good portion of the day on Tuesday. At this point half a foot looks good, but most of the Berkshires will likely end up in an 8-12" zone. But there is a big "if" associated with this storm. Some models are showing a period of icing will occur. That will likely cut snow totals in half.

The current Euro model for Monday/Tuesday. That strong cut-off line indicates ice will be a factor for this storm.

Hopefully, the storm will not close vaccination sites in our area, but if it's as bad as is forecasted, then shots on Tuesday may need to be rescheduled.

We won't have to wait long for storm number two. It might not be as strong as the Monday/Tuesday storm, and the models are split on whether we'll see all snow or a shift from snow to ice to rain. If you prefer the all snow outcome, you are rooting hard for the Euro. Best case scenario (the Euro) would be 5-7 inches of snow by midday on Friday. Worst case (the North American) would be an inch or two and then a changeover to rain.

We'll have some forecast maps for you tomorrow for the big Monday/Tuesday event. More winter!

Active Weather Period Continues

The bad news is that a week ago we were watching for a moderate/heavy snow event for Friday. As you can by the lack of buzz out there on the news and on social media, that threat no longer exists. 

But the good news is that numerous small- and medium-sized storms could bring an abundance of snow to the Berkshires. Here is a long-term map that show how much snow the models think we will get (from all the storms combined) over the next two weeks:

Another two feet would be amazing and would keep a sturdy snow base well into mid-March.

So, what can we expect in the next week?

Several storms that seemed to be heading for the Berkshires are now sliding to our south. Tomorrow's chance for snow will go out to sea, and Sunday's storm is trending that way as well. We might see a few inches of snow Sunday afternoon/evening if we're lucky.

Some of the models show a stronger storm for Monday night into Tuesday, but they are not all in agreement. That storm has coastal elements that bear watching.

After Tuesday, we expect to see more nuisance snows for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Light accumulations are all possible those days.

With most schools on vacation next week, we won't be offering too much in the way of snow day/remote day information, but we will continue to help give you a sense of when snow will fall and how much.

Go out and enjoy the snow. Not every winter is this good for snow lovers. 

Snow Days and Remote Days for Tuesday, February 9

The snow started earlier than expected, and the radar shows a long swath of snow stretching all the way back to the Mississippi Valley that will slowly slide over the Berkshires throughout the day. We're still on track for 3-5 inches of snow today.

Here are confirmed school announcements:

REMOTE DAY:

Mount Greylock

North Adams 

SNOW DAY:

Mohawk Trail  

Hancock

OTHER:

Child Care of the Berkshires -- no transportation for Northern Berkshire

Pittsfield (going remote for the afternoon)

Winter Weather Advisory for Tuesday; Updated Remote and Snow Days List

REMOTE/SNOW DAYS for Tuesday, February 9th (snow information below):

REMOTE DAY:

Mount Greylock

SNOW DAY:

Mohawk Trail 

Snow Sunday...and Snowy Week Ahead

NWS Albany has announced a Winter Weather Advisory for today (Sunday) for all of Berkshire County. This event will be a relatively fast mover, and snow will likely end by kickoff time of the Big Game (6:30 PM). By the time the storm moves out of our area, most folks should see 3-4 inches with a slight chance for half a foot in South County.

We won't have to wait long for a next chance for snow. Another system will move in from the west on Tuesday and could drop another 3-5 inches of snow on us. Most of the snow will fall after midnight so we could see a few schools go fully remote that day.

And then there's Friday. The model runs show a more robust storm for Friday (6-8" seems reasonable), so if we are to get a snow day in the upcoming week, it would be Friday. But because it is the day before vacation--and some teachers we know have big tests scheduled for that day--it's more than likely that we'll see many remote days and only a few select real snow days.

It's going to be a busy week! Snow begets snow--especially in this la nina winter--and we'll definitely keep an eye on Tuesday's and Friday's potential snow events.

Snow x 3

No shilly-shallying with the snow talk tonight. We are expected to see snow Friday, Sunday, and Tuesday afternoon. Unfortunately, none of these storms is expected to be particularly big.

The Friday storm will be brief. Snow will approach from the west-southwest and maybe drop an inch on the Berkshires, with the potential for up to 3" in the higher elevation towns, especially in the northwestern part of the county. We may see rain mix in around noun, but snow showers could return by the end of the day.

An early model run for snow on Tuesday. This, of course, will change.

The nor'easter we hoped would develop for Sunday night does not look like it's going to come together. The northern and southern energy systems appear that they will not form a most beautiful union. The northern system will bring us some snow, but only in the 2-4" range. There's still an outside chance that the northern piece will intensify on the coast and double the current snow forecast, especially in eastern New England, but most weather experts are downplaying that outcome.

And then one more system will develop later on Tuesday. The timing of this storm is less certain--the Euro model shows snow for the afternoon; the North American brings it earlier. Once again, though, we are not expecting more than a few inches, but we it's possible some in Berkshire County could see 5". 

To recap: expect some amount of snow on Friday, Sunday, and Tuesday.

Up Next: Potential for Friday & Sunday Snow

Once again, the models did pretty well in telling us ahead of time how much snow we would get. The low snow total--6.6" in Williamstown--and the high total--15.5" in Becket--were about right. Maybe these models--and the professionals who know how to interpret them--know something after all.

We do think there will be some snow day backlash in the next week or so because of the early release and full snow days called for Monday and Tuesday. We probably could have gotten away with a delay in some parts of North County on Tuesday, so there will definitely be a "market correction" in the next week, especially with February vacation not so far away.

We have two chances for snow and then things might dry up as very cold air will move into the region on Monday. (But be glad we don't live in the Midwest. Minneapolis, for example, is expected to have 75 hours of temperatures below 0 over the next five days. Minus 5 is the expected high temperature for Sunday. No thank you.)

The first storm will come through during the day on Friday. We could see snow first, then perhaps rain, then a return to snow in the evening. We're not talking a lot of snow--4" tops in the higher elevations--but most folks will see a slushy inch or two.

We hyped up a repeat of the nor'easter a few days ago for this Sunday night, but the models are less confident now that another nor'easter is waiting in the wings. Monday night's storm did have two pieces of energy that phased on the coast. For the Super Bowl Sunday storm, there are two pieces of energy--one from the west/northwest and one from the south--but the models are less certain they will phase and deliver us the coastal "bombogenesis" we like to see for a nor'easter. Right now there is about a 30% chance that the low pressure systems will phase. Those are about the same odds as Tom Brady has for winning the big game.

We'll continue to monitor both systems, and hopefully we'll at least add a few inches to our snow base by Monday. If we get through Friday relatively unscathed (due to the potential rain), the snow should be around for at least a few weeks due to the cold air moving in from the Midwest.

Snow Days & Remote Days (Updated)

We've had some key additions and updates this morning. Here's what we know:

CLOSINGS (no remote; true snow day) 

Berkshire Waldorf 

Clarksburg

Farmington River

Gabriel Abbott 

Hancock

Hoosac Valley RSD (upgrade!)

Mount Greylock

Pittsfield 

Stamford (VT) 

REMOTE DAY (no in-person instruction)

Berkshire Hills 

Central Berkshire

Emma Miller

Lee 

Lenox 

North Adams 

Richmond Consolidated

Southern Berkshires

Southern Vermont SU  

OTHER:

Berkshire Montessori -- 2 hour delay 

Child Care of the Berkshires -- 1 hour delay; no transportation; **Norman Rockwell closed 

MCLA -- starting at 10 AM today 

Williams College -- Children's Center Opens at 10 AM

Evening Update: Heavy Bands of Snow Creep North; Closings & Remote Day List

The most important info here is whether or not you have school tomorrow, so we'll put our closings and remote day list first. We'll update it through the evening when/if calls come in. If you want to read a few musings about the storm itself, see below.

CLOSINGS (no remote, no nuthin')

Berkshire Waldorf 

Clarksburg

Farmington River

Gabriel Abbott

Hancock 

Mount Greylock

Stamford (VT) 

REMOTE DAY (no in-person)

Adams-Cheshire

Berkshire Hills 

Central Berkshire

Emma Miller

Lee 

Lenox 

Richmond Consolidated

Southern Berkshires

Southern Vermont SU  

OTHER:

Child Care of the Berkshires -- 1 hour delay; no transportation 

Heavy Snow Still To Come

Even though the main thrust of the storm is still several hours away, we've had an active day with early releases, closures, and remote days called for Tuesday. It's almost like old times!

We're seeing very light snow in most parts of the Berkshires, but there is a very strong band of snow in Connecticut and New York running parallel to the MA/CT border. This band will gradually push northward. Once it gets to your area, you will notice how hard the snow is coming down.

That's an impressively heavy band of snow from northern Philly up and across to Martha's Vineyard. Eventually it will push up into our area.

We're still on track for 8-14 inches in the Berkshires, with the southeast corner and east-facing slopes getting the higher totals. Not much has changed since yesterday in terms of the intensity and timing of the storm. Road travel tonight and tomorrow morning will be very difficult.

Most schools will have either a snow day or a remote day tomorrow. Here's what we know for certain. Please write a comment or reach out through social media if any of this information is incorrect or needs to be updated (@GreylockSnowDa1 Twitter; @greylock_snow_day on Instagram; Greylock Snow Day on Facebook).

FULL CLOSINGS FOR TUESDAY (no remote):

Mount Greylock

Williamstown Community Pre-School

REMOTE DAY FOR TUESDAY (no in-person):

Adams-Cheshire

Central Berkshire

Emma Miller

Snow Arrives Early; More Early Releases, Remote Days & Closures

Meteorologists were off a few hours with the start of the snow, as it now snowing in all places in Berkshire County (as of 6:30 AM). This is advance snow and will be light, but rest assured the heavy stuff is not coming down until much later today.

Here are the early releases for today:

Clarksburg

Emma Miller

Gabriel Abbott

Hancock 

Lee

Lenox

McCann 

Mount Greylock 

Stamford (VT)

Here are the others weather-related situations:

Berkshire Hills (now a FULL REMOTE DAY)

Berkshire Waldorf (still CLOSED)

Child Care of The Berkshires (no transportation today; might close early--stay tuned)

Farmington River (CLOSED) 

Mount Greylock (early release today; CLOSED for TUESDAY) 

Richmond Consolidated (FULL REMOTE DAY)

Southern Berkshire (CLOSED) 

 

  

Winter Storm Warning for The Berkshires (Feb. 1/2) & Early Releases for Monday

It came a little later than expected, but a Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for the County. This means 6+ inches within a 24-hour period is virtually a guarantee.

We are pleased to report that a few early releases and one closure for Monday:

Berkshire Hills

Berkshire Waldorf (CLOSED)

Clarksburg

Emma Miller

Gabriel Abbott

Lee

Lenox 

Richmond Consolidated 

Stamford (VT)

Forecasted Snow Totals Continue To Climb

We haven't received the upgrade from Winter Storm Watch to Winter Storm Morning at of 8:30 AM, but we should see that happen shortly.

Two days ago, this is what NWS Albany was forecasting for snow for our area:

And this morning we wake up to this:

We've also seen an adjustment to the predicted start of the snow. It should start to snow in South County tomorrow around 9 or 10 AM, and then gradually move north. For folks on the Mass/VT border, expect snow to begin falling no later than 3 PM. For the few schools in session, Monday just might be an early release day.

Don't forget to follow on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram for sporadic and shorter updates. We'll have a longer post with more forecast maps later this afternoon or tonight.

Winter Storm Watch For Monday/Tuesday (Feb. 1/2)

Well, right on cue, the windshield wiper effect has kicked in, and here is the latest forecast map from NWS Albany:

That's quite a change from yesterday's dire 1" prediction for Berkshire County.

Should the models continue to push the storm center closer to the coast--which is the reason our snow totals have gone up considerably--we will see this Watch become a Warning by midday on Sunday. A quote we really enjoyed earlier today out of Albany is that "this storm system has overachiever potential given recent model trends."

So, when will the first flakes fall? Right now--and this could of course change a few hours in either direction--the storm should start early Monday afternoon in South County and later in the afternoon in North County. It should snow all Thursday night and for a good portion of the day on Tuesday. 

Snow days and remote days are now much more likely for Tuesday. Given that snow will be falling on Tuesday morning and continuing throughout the day, delays seems unlikely. Back in the old days, we would still be cautious about going all in for a snow day for all students of Berkshire County just yet, and we would likely set the Confidence Meter at a healthy 66%. 

Based on the snow days and remote days called last week by our local Superintendents, we will have a smattering of snow days--smaller mountain towns, Lenox--and the rest will go fully remote (if they aren't they there already). And there's an outside chance that we could see a benevolent Superintendent call a snow day for students who are fully remote. 

And just for fun, we'll pass this nugget along. We've seen some chatter about the Canadian model for this storm and it's a doozy. Before you dismiss it entirely, the Canadian model did predict December's big storm very accurately, so maybe the Canadian is only good at blockbuster storms? We'll just have to see.

Bring it on, Canadian model!

Neither'easter or Nor'easter?

Another night in January, another Wind Chill Advisory. 

Temps are solidly in the single digits tonight and will bottom out around zero tomorrow morning. The best we'll do on Saturday is the mid-teens, but the sun will peek through the haze and, for the most part, tomorrow will be a very cold but pleasant day.

The calm before the storm?

That, Flake Followers, is the $64,000 question. The bad news is that today's runs of the models take the storm farther to our south and east. We are not pleased with this development.

The good news is that we've seen this model fickleness before. We've written about the "windshield wiper effect" in past years (a tip of the cap to legendary meteorologist Bernie Rayno of Accuweather), but if you're new to this space or you need a refresher, here's the general gist: 

Phase 1: For many storms we often see a strong, snow-heavy forecast six or seven days before a storm.

Phase 2: Three or four days before a storm, the models get confused and show less agreement and less snow for a storm. 

Phase 3: Miraculously, the models "correct" themselves and the models return to a heavier snow forecast 36 hours (+/- 12 hours) prior to the arrival of the snow.

We're certainly hoping that we're seeing the windshield wiper effect for this storm. Southern New England and Boston certainly look like they will feel the brunt of this storm's energy no matter what the track is, but, unfortunately, there's still a decent chance that the Berkshires will be on the outside looking in for this nor'easter.

Just to give you a sense of the range of possibilities, here's what NWS Albany is already showing for Monday:

The top map is NWS Albany's snow forecast for Monday as of today. The bottom map shows what will happen if the coastal low jogs 50 or 100 miles to the north.

Before you get too down in the mouth about this storm, remember the windshield wiper effect, and let's just see where the models take us tomorrow night and Sunday morning. We at GSD are certainly holding out hope.