Neither'easter or Nor'easter?

Another night in January, another Wind Chill Advisory. 

Temps are solidly in the single digits tonight and will bottom out around zero tomorrow morning. The best we'll do on Saturday is the mid-teens, but the sun will peek through the haze and, for the most part, tomorrow will be a very cold but pleasant day.

The calm before the storm?

That, Flake Followers, is the $64,000 question. The bad news is that today's runs of the models take the storm farther to our south and east. We are not pleased with this development.

The good news is that we've seen this model fickleness before. We've written about the "windshield wiper effect" in past years (a tip of the cap to legendary meteorologist Bernie Rayno of Accuweather), but if you're new to this space or you need a refresher, here's the general gist: 

Phase 1: For many storms we often see a strong, snow-heavy forecast six or seven days before a storm.

Phase 2: Three or four days before a storm, the models get confused and show less agreement and less snow for a storm. 

Phase 3: Miraculously, the models "correct" themselves and the models return to a heavier snow forecast 36 hours (+/- 12 hours) prior to the arrival of the snow.

We're certainly hoping that we're seeing the windshield wiper effect for this storm. Southern New England and Boston certainly look like they will feel the brunt of this storm's energy no matter what the track is, but, unfortunately, there's still a decent chance that the Berkshires will be on the outside looking in for this nor'easter.

Just to give you a sense of the range of possibilities, here's what NWS Albany is already showing for Monday:

The top map is NWS Albany's snow forecast for Monday as of today. The bottom map shows what will happen if the coastal low jogs 50 or 100 miles to the north.

Before you get too down in the mouth about this storm, remember the windshield wiper effect, and let's just see where the models take us tomorrow night and Sunday morning. We at GSD are certainly holding out hope.