Pinpointing the Snow For This Weekend (Nov. 13/14)

It's Veteran's Day and the GSD Staff is happy to be hard at work and also taking the time to honor the contributions and sacrifices made by the men and women of our military.

On to the first storm of 2026-27. The first part of the storm will arrive in the early hours of Thursday. Thursday looks to be a miserable day--cold (high of 45) and wet (over 0.5" of rain). The storm center will get to the coast on Thursday and then just sit there, extending the wet weather into Friday. As the storm sits and spins counterclockwise, it will draw in colder air from the north and west to our region. This is when the rain should shift over to wet flakes, some of which will accumulate in higher elevation towns.

Image courtesy of NWS Albany.

If this were a mid-December storm, we'd be looking at snow days for most on Friday. But, alas, it is only mid-November and the cold air is not more firmly entrenched. So, we will see wet flakes and increased chances for a delay or snow day for some in the northern and westernmost areas of Berkshire County.

The Euro model is still showing that snow fall will only be in the 1-3" range. The more aggressive North American model still pushes snow totals for some in Northern Berkshire County to half a foot or more. 

The North American model still calling for a major storm. Unlikely.

Ultimately, we think a few high elevation towns (above 1000') will see 1-2" of snow and the rest in the valleys will see intermittent wet flakes with the rain Friday morning into midday. Roads should be fine except for folks over 1500' who may need a few extra minutes to descend from their hilltop perches.

The more restrained and often accurate Euro model for Friday midday. A much more likely scenario.

We'll bump up the Confidence Meter for delay chances on Friday, but as a group the GSD Staff is very skeptical that school will be shortened on Friday. But it will be very fun to wake up on Friday morning and see what Old Man Winter has in store for us.

Nor'easter In Development (Nov. 12-14)

It's looking more and more likely that many residents of Berkshire County will see the first flakes--and the first accumulating snow--of the season this weekend.

What are the models saying? (Just a refresher: we mostly look at the European model (ECMWF) and the North American model (GFS) and compare the two.) As of today (Tuesday AM), they are moving closer together in their snow estimations. See below:

The Euro prediction for Saturday morning.

The North American model (same time frame).

The North American is just a little high on its own supply and is overcooking the snow totals that we'll see for this storm. Even the Euro seems high given how warm the run-up to the storm will be. In terms of accumulating snow, we'll likely see a coating on grassy surfaces with possibly and inch or two in higher elevation towns (1200' feet and higher). Expect to see snow flakes in the air later in the day on Friday and into Saturday morning.

As this snow--should it fall--will arrive in the afternoon on Friday, we do not expect any alteration to the length of the school day.

More on this developing storm in the next few days.

Snow Lovers Rejoice, It's Officially Greylock Snow Day Season

Welcome back all ye Followers of the Flake. It's November, snow flake icons are starting to show up in the weather apps and maps, and frost is appearing on windshields in the mornings, so it's high time the GSD Staff get their tail feathers back in their seats in front of all their glorious snow prognostication tools.

We're excited to be back and we are even more excited that you are back to check in about the latest chances for a snow day. Also, we need all those good snow day vibes that you send out. Trust us when we say that we can feel them.

NOAA November-February Outlook

Unfortunately, the long-range forecasts suggest that we are going to need a lot of positive snow day thinking because this winter might come up a little short compared to typical winters. The simplest explanation is that the temperature from November through February is supposed to be warmer than normal and precipitation will be leaning slightly above normal. What this likely means is more frequent storms but those frustrating ones that start as snow then quickly transition to sleet then all rain.

We will be under the spell of a strong el nino this winter. This means the jet stream pushes farther south. We typically see less snow in these strong el nino years because storms often show promise and then leak out to sea near the mid-Atlantic states. The only benefit of more moisture to our south is that the occasional nor'easter will pop up in these conditions. We could see fewer Alberta clippers and nuisance snow but two or three big storms this season.

NOAA November-February Outlook

Another word you'll be hearing a lot this year is "elevation." Elevation will be a big factor in all those storms that start out as snow and then shift to ice and then rain. Higher elevation towns will hold onto the cold air longer and thus get more snow and more snow days. This will make snow day predictions for the entire county more challenging, but the staff will certainly be up for the task.