Winter Storm Watch -- Sunday/Monday, Feb. 22-23

At the GSD Home Office, we tacked on 5 more inches to our seasonal snow total of 44.2". But the big news is a developing coastal storm that could impact school on Monday.

The last two weather-makers were clippers that came in from the west/northwest. This Sunday/Monday storm, though, will be a good old-fashioned coastal storm. That means it has much more moisture associated with it and could produce a moderate to heavy snowfall, especially for South County.

NWS Albany has put up a Winter Storm Watch that begins Sunday morning and ends Monday afternoon. The long-ish duration of the watch means that snow could pile up.

But there's a lot of uncertainty still about the track of the storm. Should it continue to trend more northerly, we will see the Watch upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. If the storm flattens out and heads more out to sea, we may see the Watch cancelled or turned into Winter Weather Advisory for lighter snow amounts.

The County's last clean sweep of snow days back on January 26 was a slam dunk and most Superintendents called in the snow day the day before. Such is not the case for this storm. The cut-off line between 5-7" and 1-2" will be fairly distinct, so this will be a storm that we'll have to wait out until Monday morning.

The current position of the GSD Staff on this storm is "less confident" (but that is always subject to change!). South County schools will have a much better chance of snow days than North County schools. The timing looks really good so delays and full snow days are very much in play. But we could see a scenario where districts like North Adams, Mount Greylock and Hoosac Valley have a full day of school, and Southern Berkshire has the day off. There could be that much difference in predicted snow amounts south to north.

As for the models, take a look below:

Euro

North American

Short-range NAM

You can see that there's still some discrepancy between the Euro and the North American. Connecticut and Rhode Island schools are definitely looking at full snow days, but it's still a little iffy for our entire County. The NAM does tend to run a little hot, so its 8-12" prediction is almost assuredly too high.

Much more to come on this developing very interesting situation.

Winter Weather Advisory for Friday, Feb. 20

The Winter Weather Advisory that we just had on Wednesday proved to be a bust at the GSD Home Office--just a few wet flakes and no accumulation--and we now have a second Advisory level storm to deal with on Friday.

Your weather app may be showing a moderate snowfall for Friday into Saturday, but we're not so sure this storm is going to generate that much snow.

NWS Albany

The Winter Weather Advisory is calling for a combination of mixed precipitation and snow. The forecast is for 2-4" for the County, with a the northeast hill towns seeing up to half a foot. Southern Vermont and the Adirondacks have Winter Storm Warnings posted. 

According to NWS Albany meteorologists, the precipitation will start as snow then transition to mixed precipitation then switch back over to snow. We should be right around 32 degrees for the day, which is why we will see snow and mixed precipitation. The transitions are supposed to happen throughout the day and early evening then snow showers will continue after midnight. If there is a period of heavier snow, it will take place well after dark. 

Accuweather's map shows the path of this clipper system.

Both the North American and Euro models are showing 4-6", but the shorter-term NAM model is showing less precipitation. The runs of the NAM model are telling us that snow totals will be on the lower end of the 2-4" prediction and we agree with that prediction.

Expect a messy day on Friday!

Winter Weather Advisory -- Wed. Feb. 18

We have another midweek Winter Weather Advisory to deal with. This one again results from a clipper system that will move into our area this afternoon. We should see 1-3" around Berkshire County when the snow finishes up before midnight.

Because it's so warm out, the storm may start with a period of wintry mix before it transitions to all snow as the air column cools. This snow will be wet and heavy.

NWS Albany snow map for Wednesday, Feb. 18.

Wintry mix and/or snow should start this afternoon around 2 PM in most locations. Any games or events this evening may be cancelled, but the more intrepid ADs and Superintendents will carry on.

The next storms are expected to impact our area Friday and Sunday/Monday. Friday's storm will be similar to tonight's storm. And we're definitely keeping an eye on the late weekend storm to see if it will impact school on Monday. The models are not in agreement so it may be a long shot, but meteorologists keep mentioning the possibility so we'll stay on it.