You Simply Knew This Was Coming

[7am Wednesday Update: A Winter Storm Watch has been posted for all of the Berkshires. Over six inches is possible in elevations above 1500 feet. Lesser amounts in the valleys.]

The weather gods had been looking down kindly on the Berkshires for the past month. Well, now it's time to pay the proverbial piper.

Measurable, plowable snow is possibly headed our way for Friday. NWS Albany is all in a dither with this spring storm--a week of calm weather in the 70s will do that to you--and advocating that we keep the shovels and snow boots handy.

We have a ton of moisture moving into the area on Thursday, and the precipitation will come down moderately and heavily overnight and into Friday. Here is a sentence we do not see that often from NWS Albany: "Explosive secondary cyclogenesis is likely." Translation: "We have ourselves a nor'easter."

Historically, these spring storms do not pan out. More often than not there isn't enough cold air in place, and it ends rainy with wet flakes mixed in. But because this storm has the potential to be very powerful, it could draw enough cold air into the region to turn the rain drops to snow flakes.

Those in the higher terrain will likely see measurable snow, and we'll have to see just how deep into the valleys the snow line falls. Right now, the models are showing a VERY robust storm. The Euro has us in the 3-5" range; the North American is predicting 9-10" for the Berks; and a second North American model tops us out at 11-13". We think these numbers are running high, and the Euro prediction will likely end up being more accurate. But you never know, which makes this weather prediction game fun.

The Euro model's sensible forecast.

The NAM's, might we say, aggressive forecast.

We won't be surprised to see Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Watches get called for our area tomorrow.

Also, because snow is expected to come down Thursday after midnight, several schools could see delays, snow days or full remote days on Friday.

This storm definitely bears watching; we'll have at least one update tomorrow.