Wednesday, February 3, 2021

Up Next: Potential for Friday & Sunday Snow

Once again, the models did pretty well in telling us ahead of time how much snow we would get. The low snow total--6.6" in Williamstown--and the high total--15.5" in Becket--were about right. Maybe these models--and the professionals who know how to interpret them--know something after all.

We do think there will be some snow day backlash in the next week or so because of the early release and full snow days called for Monday and Tuesday. We probably could have gotten away with a delay in some parts of North County on Tuesday, so there will definitely be a "market correction" in the next week, especially with February vacation not so far away.

We have two chances for snow and then things might dry up as very cold air will move into the region on Monday. (But be glad we don't live in the Midwest. Minneapolis, for example, is expected to have 75 hours of temperatures below 0 over the next five days. Minus 5 is the expected high temperature for Sunday. No thank you.)

The first storm will come through during the day on Friday. We could see snow first, then perhaps rain, then a return to snow in the evening. We're not talking a lot of snow--4" tops in the higher elevations--but most folks will see a slushy inch or two.

We hyped up a repeat of the nor'easter a few days ago for this Sunday night, but the models are less confident now that another nor'easter is waiting in the wings. Monday night's storm did have two pieces of energy that phased on the coast. For the Super Bowl Sunday storm, there are two pieces of energy--one from the west/northwest and one from the south--but the models are less certain they will phase and deliver us the coastal "bombogenesis" we like to see for a nor'easter. Right now there is about a 30% chance that the low pressure systems will phase. Those are about the same odds as Tom Brady has for winning the big game.

We'll continue to monitor both systems, and hopefully we'll at least add a few inches to our snow base by Monday. If we get through Friday relatively unscathed (due to the potential rain), the snow should be around for at least a few weeks due to the cold air moving in from the Midwest.

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