Storm Alert

Happy New Year, snow hounds!

With a new year, we have a new and exciting opportunity for snow, which we want to put it on your radar. We could see a moderate/heavy snow storm next weekend.

The potential for this storm will generate a lot of hype in the media because it's the first big one of the season and it could impact the Philly, NYC, and Boston metropolitan areas.

You need to resist the temptation to get too excited for this storm. We can't stress that enough. For one, we're seven days away from the predicted dumping of snow. And two, the snow will fall on the weekend, which is just so predictable for this really disappointing snow season. And why not play the reverse psychology game? If we all downplay it, then there's a chance we will pleasantly surprised next Sunday.

The reason that the snow hype machine will be cranked up to maximum NSPMs (news stories per minute) is--you know this if you are a frequent reader--the recent runs of the European and North American models. Yesterday they were more apart in their forecast, but today they are more in sync.

European model for next Sunday night.

North American model, slight later time frame.

Currently, the forecast is for 7-11 inches for the Berkshires. If the models can continue to stay in sync, then our chances for a moderate snow event next Sunday will continue to stay high. One trend to watch is a southerly shift in the snow (which is what the North American model was suggesting yesterday). If it does push south, we'll only see 2-4 inches in our areas.

Again, try not to fall prey to the hype. These models will change over the next five days. The storm could easily drift south. But let's keep an eye on it.

If This Rain Had Been Snow...

Today was a wild weather day with heavy rain and high winds that started Sunday night and are just starting to wrap up now (Monday night). We currently have river flood warnings for several areas, with waters expected to continue to rise overnight. While it's highly unlikely that we'll see widespread delays tomorrow due to river flooding, some isolated schools could get a shortened school day.

Whenever we get heavy rain in the winter months, people always fantasize about how much snow would have fallen if had it been cold enough. The rain-to-snow ratio is typically 1 inch to 10-12 inches. But that ratio doesn't really tell the whole truth. If it had been cold enough for snow, the air would be much drier, which would have lowered the amount of liquid with this storm. Still, 18 inches would not have been out of the question if cold air was in place.

The rest of this post is a very Grinchy outlook, so turn away if you're better off not knowing.

As for a white Christmas, that's not happening around here. Thursday and Friday will feel like winter with temps hovering around freezing both days--ski areas will be able to recoup some of their losses--but we are expected to shoot up into the 40s again starting on Christmas Eve. Vacation week looks like most days will be well over freezing. Bah humbug.

El Nino winters--we're in one in a big way--typically produce late season snow. So, it could easily be another 4 weeks until we see a shift in the pattern and colder air gains a stronger footing over the US.

Happy holidays, and we hope we have better news soon!

Monday Morning (Dec. 11) Report -- Delays and Closings

At the GSD Headquarters in Williamstown (elevation 700 feet), it is 33 degrees and we have half an inch of snow with a combination of rain/snow falling (as of 5:30 AM). Precipitation should come down for several more hours but the intensity may not be there for even delays.

Several schools to our west (Brunswick, Berlin, Hoosick Falls NY) and north have gone with delays today. 

We have a few delays to report (updated 5:54 AM):

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Hillcrest
Pittsfield

Monday (Dec. 11) Storm -- Evening Update

It sure doesn't feel like it's going to snow 3-6 inches tomorrow. With light rain and temps still in the 50s as of 5 PM Sunday, Spring seems like it's right around the corner.

But be assured that all this will change in a dramatic fashion when the storm front comes through. The rain will continue all night and the winds will pick up. As the temps get into the 30s, we'll see the changeover to snow. The big mystery is the timing of the changeover. Forecasters don't really know--we've seen as early as 3 AM and as late as 6 AM--so the snow day decision tomorrow morning is going to be based largely on the forecast.

Models this evening are now more in agreement but still showing a wide spread. The Euro is showing 2-7" south to north and the N. American model is showing 6-10" countywide. These numbers feel a little amped so 2-5 inches throughout the county is more reasonable. 

The most snow will fall in the northwest corner. The least amount will fall in the southeast corner. Mount Greylock, North Adams, Hoosac Valley districts and all the hill-town elementary schools (Clarksburg, Emma Miller, Gabriel Abbott) have the best chance for snow days. Pittsfield and Central Berkshire will be in the running for a snow day if the snow starts early enough. For South County districts (So. Berkshire, Berkshire Hills, Lee, Lenox), you're likely to see only a delay.

A couple of things we don't like about the storm are the warmth and the unpredictable nature of early season storms. The things we like about the storm are its strength and its timing.

The latest run of the Euro is coming around. The pink area in the northwest corner equals 7 inches.

Another huge factor is the mindset of your Superintendent. Historically, Supers are more lenient with the first storm. They haven't called one in a while, which means they haven't dealt with blowback from their constituents in some time. If this were storm number 4 or 5 and the snow days were starting to pile up (pun intended), then they would be more reluctant to call a snow day.

So, as long as it starts snowing by 5:30 or 6:00, we will see northern districts with snow days due to the forecast for 3-6 inches in about a five-hour period. There simply won't be time to clear the roads in time for the delayed start. Southern district schools will have to go with a delay due to the predicted low snow volume.

The big takeaway, then, is that there's room for optimism but don't get your hopes up. If you have a test or presentation or paper due, don't bank on a day off or an extra few hours to cram in some studying. It's wise to keep expectations low given the iffy-ness of the changeover time and the fact that it's not supposed to snow all day long.

Winter Weather Advisory for Monday, Dec. 11

In the battle between our two favorite models--the Euro and the North American--it looks like meteorologists are giving more credence to the North American model that we showed you yesterday.

NWS Albany has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Berkshires and Winter Storm Warnings for SouthernVermont and other parts north and west. The advisory now calls for a solid 3-8 inches of snow, and forecasters in Albany have hinted that the Advisory in the Berkshires could easily be upgraded to a Warning once a few more model runs come in. The storm is trending to a take more easterly line, which means colder air and more snow.

NWS Albany

With this uptick in the predicted snow totals, the plot thickens for Monday. The snow is still expected to begin around 6 AM tomorrow. Even though temps are in the 50s Sunday morning, the mercury will steadily drop throughout the day and night. The ground temperature will not get below freezing, but that will not prevent the much colder air aloft from producing snow. And because temps will be in the mid 30s when the snow begins to fall, it will be a heavy wet snow. Power outages are possible if the heavy wet snow accumulates quickly (which it might), but the windy conditions should shake the snow from tree limbs and minimize power problems.

The prediction for higher snow totals has perhaps made Superintendents' decisions a smidge easier in that calling off school will be more justified due to the forecast for 3-8 inches starting at the absolute worst time for the morning bus runs. The timing and rising snow totals are definitely working in our favor. 

We at GSD think that we will see the full gamut tomorrow--snow days, delays, and full school days. Students in western areas of Berkshire county and higher elevation districts have an even chance for the full snow day. South County schools will likely have a full day or delayed start.

This map is essentially clickbait, but it is somewhat useful in showing how much potential this storm has. It shows the highest end of snow predictions. This amount of snow is in the realm of possibility but unlikely.

Even though the storm is trending in the right direction, we might be in the middle of the "windshield wiper effect" that sometimes happens with the models. Light or moderate snow predictions made a few days ago suddenly grow much higher a day or two before the storm but then get re-adjusted back down as meteorologists start to factor in the short term models. It's a pattern we've seen dozens of times before, which is why 1-4 inches is more likely than 6-8.

We'll do one more post later today once we get more information to pin down the exact track and specific timing of the start of the snow.

Potential Mess (and Delays and Snow Days) for Monday

We have a developing winter weather situation for Monday that is potentially going to present a nightmare decision scenario for Superintendents.

Most of you probably know that it's going to rain buckets on Sunday. The Berkshires could see close to 2" of water and flood watches have been announced.

NWS Albany Forecast

As this big storm front moves through Sunday afternoon and night, the temperature is going to start to drop. And as the temp drops, the liquid will change over to snow. It's going to snow on Monday. We probably won't get a lot--mostly in the 1-2" range with higher totals in high elevation towns--but the timing could really tricky.

The American model (GFS). Wouldn't that be nice. Highly, highly unlikely.

Heavy wet snow is forecasted to start falling moderately somewhere between 6 and 8 AM. It could very likely be one of those situations where it's too late to delay buses, but once the buses run, the roads begin to grease up significantly. Delaying school by two hours will give road crews some time to treat the roads, but the snow could still be coming down just as moderately at the later start time. And, to top it all off, the snow will likely end around noon so the forecast won't support giving students a full snow day for what ultimately will be a 1.5-inch snow storm. 

A much saner prediction from the Euro model.

So, we're looking at a 6-hour window for snow on Monday. It could start at 6 AM; it could start at 8 AM. For Superintendents, its onset is in that window that makes almost any decision a criticizable one. 

We think that some school heads will not want to deal with the messy commute and they will keep students home for a few hours. We also will not rule out one or two districts going with the snow day. Keep on eye on the Confidence Meter for the next 36 hours.

Stay tuned! More tomorrow. 

Snow Globe Snow

Greylock Snow Day offers apologies for anyone caught off guard by the bonus half inch of snow that fell throughout the day in Berkshire County. Except for very high elevation towns, the roads were fine today as the temp never really got too much under freezing.

Today's precipitation was classic snow globe snow. It came down almost all day at GSD Headquarters, and it really got the staff in the holiday mood. The holiday tunes in the office were just a little but louder, and everyone seemed just a little more caffeinated.

Unfortunately, the positive vibes in the office will not be transferring to the weather maps and models any time soon. Tomorrow (Thursday) we could still see a leftover flurry, but mostly it will be dry and slightly warmer than today.

The big weather news this weekend is a strong storm heading our way for Sunday/Monday. The big snow associated with this storm will be well to our west. Around here, though, we will see heavy rain Sunday afternoon and Sunday night as the front comes through. Up to 2" of rain is possible. Just imagine if that were snow (16-24 inches)! Because the rain will be heavy and intense Sunday evening, strong winds will also be present. There is the potential for power outages Sunday night into Monday, which we will be closely monitoring.

As the storm front slides past us, temps on Monday will drop and leftover precipitation could change over to snow on Monday. There's a very small chance that the morning commute on Monday is messy, but the changeover to snow may happen too late for any impact to the length of the school day.

Euro snow prediction for Monday. Highly optimistic. We wish we could endorse this forecast but we can't.

The chances for a snow day before December break remain slim. We can't rule out a renegade storm the week before break (Dec. 18-22), but next week (Dec. 11-15) will start our dry and should remain so.

Keep the faith. Big snows will fall eventually.

(If you are interested, Greylock Snow Day merch is available and should deliver by the holidays. Here's the link!)

Snowcast for the Week of November 27

We trust everyone had a joyous Thanksgiving weekend and are ready for a very busy four weeks--yes, only four weeks!--until our next vacation.

The big question on everyone's mind is: Will we get a snow day between now the start of the December holiday break?

As of today, the GSD staff is leaning toward "no," but that's only because we have forecast info for the first half of the month. But the next two weeks are not looking snowy.

Model-predicted snow totals for the next 10 days (European). Still waiting for a substantial storm.

For this week, it's a little this and that with emphasis on "little." We will have some rain Sunday night into Monday morning, then a cold few days (10 degrees below normal), then a warm-up toward the weekend with more showers on Friday. Once the rain clears out on Monday, temps will drop into the lower 20s by midnight and we do not expect to get much above 30 on Tuesday. Gradually, things will warm back up toward 40 by the end of the week.

The only real chance for snow is Sunday night into Monday with wet snow at the highest elevations in the Berkshires. So this week looks like a five full days of school.

We'll let you know if we hear otherwise!

Snow Possible Tuesday Night (Nov. 21)

Happy Thanksgiving Week, faithful flake followers!

We are happy to report the chance of snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. It likely will not be enough to affect the school day on Wednesday, but the days are getting colder and shorter and it's about time to see some white stuff on the ground.

A highly optimistic Euro forecast for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Snow will fall in the Berkshires Tuesday night. Folks to our north (VT and NY) have Winter Weather Advisories in place. There's a chance those advisories could get extended to Northern Berkshire during the day tomorrow. At most we'll see 2-3 inches of wet snow in higher elevation locations Tuesday night. Unfortunately, snow should change over to rain by the morning commute, so those unlucky students who have school on Wednesday will likely have to attend.

We're still awaiting a bigger storm in the long range forecast. Early December is our best guess, but this strong El Nino pattern could keep us dry throughout the month of December. Sorry skiers, but we won't be at all surprised if this winter starts very slowly in terms of snow totals.

Winter Weather Advisory for Thursday, Nov. 9

Our first winter weather alert of the season! Early today (Wednesday) the National Weather Service in Albany announced a Winter Weather Advisory for northern and southern Berkshire County. The duration is from 9 PM tonight to 10 AM (south), and 9 PM to 1 PM (north).

Expect three types of frozen precipitation--snow, sleet, and freezing rain--at some point this evening. We won't see much snow accumulation (less than an inch), but icing for the morning commute is the main reason for the advisory. The set up is cold air at the surface and warmer air with precipitation above. The precipitation will fall through the cold air, and if the surface can stay at 32 degrees or below, we'll get icy roads.

So, is there a chance for a delay? Absolutely! If you live in the hill towns, you have a much better chance than those who live in lower elevation towns.

NWS Albany

We'll give students who live above I-90 a 30% chance, and those below the highway will have about a 10% chance (sorry). Also, schools on the east side will fare better than those on the New York border. We think at least a few schools will get a delay, but we doubt we'll see any kind of clean sweep.

If there is freezing rain, you'll need extra time to scrape off the ol' windshield tomorrow. So build that into your commute time.

Snow Threats Rising

If any of you snow lovers scanned your radar images this morning (Sunday), you might have noticed a large swath of snow in northern New England. We're excited to report that snow threats are beginning to creep into the ten-day forecast.

Wet snow is officially in the region.

It's highly likely that we just experienced the warmest weather we'll see for five or six months. On Friday, Albany tied a 60-year-old record by getting up to 78 degrees. While we might see the occasional spike into the 60s in the next five weeks, a consistent stretch of temps in the 60s is unlikely from now until April.

Increasingly, we're seeing the flurries and snow symbols work their way into meteorologists' forecasts. A few days ago we were getting all tingly in the GSD office as the words "coastal storm" and "nor'easter" were being mentioned for Wednesday. Unfortunately, it looks like the storm will form too far off the coast to bring as any midweek wintry weather. With the storm going out to sea, cold air will get pulled into our region and Wednesday is going to feel downright wintry--highs in the low 40s and lows in the mid-20s. You may need to scrape the windshield for your morning commute on Thursday.

As for the end of the week, temps will be more normal for this time of year (mid-50s), but it's expected to turn cooler over the weekend and into next week (back to the 40s). A mix of rain and wet snow and/or flurries are possible Monday and Tuesday.

Keep the faith. Snow will be here soon!

2023-24 Winter Preview

Hello, faithful Flake Followers! And welcome back to another year of winter fun in the Berkshires. We here at Greylock are thrilled to start year 14 of predicting snow days for students (and teachers and parents) of Berkshire County and surrounding areas.

The word "nor'easter" was in the weather news for this weekend (rain only this time), and this means winter weather is not too far around the corner. If this storm were to fall on December 21 instead of October 21, we'd be looking at well over a foot of snow.

As always, everyone wants to know what the long-range forecasters are saying about the chances for big snows this winter. We are pleased to report (mostly) good news. Simply put, we are expected to be in a strong El Nino pattern. This means that New England will see warmer temps this winter but also much more moisture. Historically, strong El Nino winters yield a few very large storms. Here's a tasty quote tracked down by WBUR's Barbara Moran:

"Typically, during El Niño, there's a two or three pretty big snowstorms along the East Coast on average. But every El Niño is different and every number of nor'easters per winter season is very different," said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center.

The second sentence from Gottshalck is very wishy-washy, but we love his first observation. If we do get 2 or 3 storms in the 12-18" range this winter, that should be more than enough to get us to our average snowfall totals--or slightly above. Our only worry is that we'll get a few big storms, but warm temperatures will not allow a solid snow base to form to carry us through the winter.

Our official GSD position is that we will see one big storm in November this year and then a quiet period in December. Then storms will ramp up again in late January, February, and early March and we'll have an above average snow season. Maybe not quite 2015 Boston levels, but we should have a very good year.

In the short term, it does not look like we will see our first sub-freezing temperature of the season until November 1-3. But colder air is indeed looming in the distance. We may not see that big November snow until later in the month--Thanksgiving snow?--but we do think that we'll have plenty of moisture in the air to raise our chances for snow.

The staff is very happy to be back, and we'll post again once the forecast warrants it.

Possible Delays For Thursday & Aftermath

March storms can really be something. Had this storm hit us, say, back in January, it would have given us a ton of snow and blowing and drifting of snow would have been issue. But it probably would have been a lot colder and the snow would not have stuck to the trees.

But the stickiness of the snow really proved to be problem. Thousands of people lost their power--some are still out--and having school today just wasn't doable because of all the downed trees and the extra time needed to dig out. It has been awhile since we've had back-to-back snow days for nearly every student in the County.

For final snow totals, check out this very unique interactive map from The Boston Globe. 

We may even see some delays tomorrow if schools can't get the power back on. Some schools near Berkshire County have snow days (Mohawk Trail) and delays (Stamford, VT), but we've seen nothing yet for Berkshire County. We don't there will be many delays, but it's not out of the question.

Things will quiet down for a stretch. We may see some rain on Friday, and there are some early signs for another potential storm on the weekend of the 25th. We're not going to get too excited about that one just yet.

Spring sports for high schools start on Monday!

Closings and Delays For Wed. March 15

Upslope snows continue to add to the snow totals and winds are gusty. Light snow should continue for a few more hours and then we'll see a few flurries the rest of the day. The districts and schools below with an asterisk (*) got the upgrade from a delay to a snow day.

Last update: Wednesday, March 15 8:30 AM

SNOW DAY:

*Adams-Cheshire

BART
BCC

*Berkshire Hills

*Berkshire Waldorf
Central Berkshire 

Clarksburg
Emma L. Miller
Farmington River
Gabriel Abbott

Lee

*Lenox

MCLA
*Mount Greylock RSD

North Adams
Pine Cobble

*Pittsfield

*Richmond Consolidated

*Southern Berkshire

Southwest Vermont SU [Remote day for teachers and staff. 👎]

Stamford, VT

TWO-HOUR DELAY (most schools will revisit this decision at 6 AM Wednesday):

 
Hancock 

Williams College (Admin Offices open at 10 AM; Children's Center open at 9:30 AM; profs will decide)

Nor'easter Day 2: Wednesday Scenarios

It looks like the models were correct--bite your tongue if you just said, "for a change"--and many folks are digging out of double-digit snowfalls.

Here at the elevationally-challenged GSD Home Office (only 700 feet) we only had 5 inches on the ground as of 2:00 PM, but other locations throughout the Berkshires are showing snow totals ranging from 8 to 12 in the valleys and 18-30 in the eastern hill towns. For regularly updated snow totals, check out this handy map.

Most meteorologists expect the snow to continue to fall throughout the Berkshires into Wednesday morning. It will taper down as we get toward daybreak, but we will be seeing upslope snow for the rest of the day and overnight. As the storm lifts away to our east, winds will shift to the north and east and create a swath of snow similar to a lake effect snow (but more of a mountain effect snow).

We should see between 2-6 more inches in most locations. And once you factor in the big wind gusts that we'll see later tonight and early tomorrow--which will only add to the widespread power outages we have had already--we definitely think there will be many delays and snow days on Wednesday.

If you live in the eastern half of the Berkshires and your school district services students who live above 1000' feet, then you have a 95% chance of a delay and a 50% chance for another snow day. We're talking about Adams-Cheshire, Emma Miller, Clarksburg, Central Berkshire, and Farmington River.

If you live on the west side or in the valleys, you have a 25% of a snow day and a 50% of a delay. 

A huge factor will be the quality of the snow. If the snow stays wet and sticky, there will be less blowing and drifting of snow, but if the snow dries out and becomes dustier, then blowing snow will re-cover roads that have just been plowed. The temps are supposed to drop to 27 or 28 tonight, which could be just enough of a temp decrease to create blowing snow.

We'll run a list of delays and snow days later today. Emma Miller in Savoy has already called off school for tomorrow.

And if you really want to lose your mind, it's possible we could see another significant coastal storm (i.e. nor'easter) around this time next week.

Closings for Tuesday, March 14

It's looking like a clean sweep. We'll let this storm get its footing before we offer up a prediction for the school day on Wednesday. Look for something Tuesday early afternoon. (If you want details on the storm from our Monday morning post, go here.)

LAST UPDATE: Monday 11:20 PM

SNOW DAY:

Adams-Cheshire

BART

BCC

Berkshire Hills

Berkshire Montessori

Berkshire Waldorf School

Central Berkshire

Clarksburg

Emma Miller

Farmington River

Gabriel Abbott

Hancock 

Lee

Lenox

MCLA

Mount Greylock

North Adams

Pine Cobble

Pittsfield

Richmond Consolidated

Southern Berkshire

Stamford, VT

Williams College (admin offices & children's center closed; classes are up to the professor)

Bring It On

It's just a matter of hours before Superintendents start to call in their snow days for tomorrow. By the time you read this, you may have already learned that you do not have school tomorrow. We do not think that any students, including college-aged ones, will be on session on Tuesday, March 14. This storm is no Storm of the Century (March 1993), but it has a chance to be a memorable one.

Forecasts are still on track for at least 10+ inches of snow for the Berkshires, with higher amounts in the higher terrain. Pittsfield has a 77% chance of getting at least a foot of snow.

A few other storm tidbits we've picked up:

*The snow will be heavy and wet to start (8"/10" of snow per inch of liquid) on Monday night and then get lighter (12" to 15" of snow per inch of liquid) later on Tuesday.

*Snowfall rates of 1+" per hour will be common.

*Winds could gust to 40 MPH on Tuesday.

*This is going to be a long-duration event. The snow starts for real later this evening and might not end until Wednesday morning.

Delays and snow days for Wednesday are now probable, even likely.

As soon as we hear of the first cancellation, we'll start up our running list.

It's Official--Winter Storm Warning

NWS Albany has issued a Winter Storm Warning for all of Berkshire County (and southern Vermont and central Mass as well).

Key details are travel on Tuesday will be "very difficult to impossible." The 12 to 18" of snow will also be very heavy, which will lead to downed trees and power outages. And the winds are going to kick up midday and into the evening on Tuesday creating white out conditions. Good times!

There is still some hesitation from meteorologists about the warm air in place and just how long it's going to take to transition from rain/wet snow to accumulating snow. We think that warm air is going to hang around a little longer and keep snow totals closer to 12" than 18" for those who live in the 800' (and lower) elevation zone. Those above 1000' will probably get their 18".

No matter how we get there, Tuesday is going to be a mess, and we're still very confident that schools will not be in session that day.

Here are some maps to give you a general lay of the land and how meteorologists are feeling about the storm:

New England Cable News and GSD are mostly on the same page; we're both suggesting moderation with the snow totals predictions.

What's fantastic about this map from NWS Albany is that it is the "low end" map. If the snow is a bust, this is how much snow we'll get, say they. That's still a lot of snow.

Meteorologist Bernie Rayno of Accuweather doing his thing on YouTube with the Telestrator. Bernie does not think NYC or Boston will get much but he's confident the Berkshires will.

Love the totals. But the jury's still out on the color combos chosen by the Springfield 22 Storm Team. It's the green/aqua that's throwing things off.

This is the Euro snow total prediction as of 1 AM Wednesday. Still looking good.

Major Winter Storm

We're not going to mince words on this one: students from pre-school to college are not going to be in session on Tuesday. And especially in the eastern hill towns, some students will be getting two days off. Many Superintendents will make their decision by the end of the school day on Monday.

We don't use this map very often because we often only see minor and moderate impacts for area. This is the first time in many years that we've seen the "extreme" impacts designation for part of the Berkshires.

Despite the prediction for 18+" for all of the Berkshires, we still do not think that all towns will be digging out from a very heavy foot and a half of snow. Because this storm is a nor'easter, there will be a band of precipitation that forms north and west of the center of the storm. This thick band of very heavy snow is going to set up somewhere and very slowly pivot (counterclockwise) as the storm slowly lifts through New England and on its way to Canada. 

The current runs of the models put that band over northern Berkshire County and southern Vermont. Any movement of the track of the storm will shift this band, so right now we think towns north of Pittsfield have a better chance for 18+ inches.

South County is still going to get hit hard, but likely more in the 8-12" range (and higher totals in higher elevation spots).

The storm will start during the day on Monday. Because temps will be in the mid and high 30s, it will likely start as a mix of rain and snow until enough cooling occurs to make it all snow.

Grocery stores will be busy today so plan accordingly.

Mapfest later today.

Storm of the Season? Winter Storm Watch Already

It would appear the forecasts for last night's snow were mostly accurate with 1-3" reported from north to south in Berkshire County. With temps up toward 40 today, most of it has melted already.

Now we can focus on the big storm headed our way for Monday night through Tuesday night. NWS Albany has already issued a Winter Storm Watch for Berkshire County for 1-2 feet (!) of snow. And the first NWS Albany map for this storm is an absolute doozy:

That's a lot of red.

The reason for this map is that the main models are still showing the potential for 18" of snow for most residents in the County. We ultimately think that this number is too high mostly because of the relatively warm temperatures we'll see in the next few days. When the snow falls, it will be a heavy wet snow with some rain mixing in in lower elevations. The liquid to snow ratio will be quite low, so we'll probably "only" see 8-12 inches in the County.

As you know, 8-12" is more than enough snow for a snow day. It looks highly unlikely that students and teachers will have to report to school on Tuesday. There should be a few inches on the ground by daybreak Tuesday, and the forecast will be for moderate snow throughout the day.

The probability for 8+ inches of snow (as of noon on Tuesday).

If this storm busts, it will because of the storm track--through Connecticut and eastern New England--and we'll see a mix of rain and snow that puts us in the 3-6" range.

If we hit the jackpot--and it's not out of the question--we will see 12-16" in the valleys and 18-24" in the higher elevations. And the snow would not end until after midnight on Tuesday, which means some communities will have delays and a second snow day on Wednesday. Twenty inches of snow is a lot of snow to move around.

There's also going to be significant winds with this storm, which could lead to power outages later in the day on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Much more to come!

(And if you didn't see that GSD stickers are back, well they are. Details here.)

Old Man Winter Ain't Dead Yet

Happy Friday, Flake Freaks. Boy, do we have some good news for you.

It's going to snow tonight. And what was initially thought only to be a dusting will now be several inches on the ground by the time it stops tomorrow morning. Snow starts later tonight. North County should get 2-3 inches and South County could get up to 5 inches. Not a bad way to start the weekend. The rest of the day will be seasonable with temps in the mid 30s.

The Saturday appetizer will then give way to the main course Monday night into Tuesday. The exact track of the storm is uncertain, but the storm should pass through southern New England somewhere and then off the northern coast of Massachusetts. A more easterly track over Rhode Island and the Cape will keep colder air in place longer and allow for more snow. If the storm tracks through Connecticut, then a period of rain could sneak up into the Berkshires and keep snow totals down.

The reason there is optimism with this storm is the consistency between the runs of the models at this juncture. The three main models that meteorologists consult--the Euro, the North American, and the Canadian--all are showing 15+ inches for the Berkshires. The Canadian is showing 30" for Sheffield and Great Barrington (!).

Canadian (as of Tuesday midnight)

European

North American

Will we see two feet of snow in the Berkshires by Wednesday? Unlikely. But even if this storm gives us half of what is expected, most locations will get 6-8 inches of snow, which is more than enough to warrant full snow days for Tuesday.

The worst case scenario is a more westerly storm track with rain creeping in, leading to lower elevation towns getting a slushy snow rain mix. That could be enough to cancel school but it will be a close call.

The best case scenario is an absolute thumping starting Monday night and lasting all the way through the wee hours of  Wednesday giving us two full days off.

Right now the GSD Staff consensus is a full snow day on Tuesday with several districts needing an additional two-hour delay on Wednesday to clean up. But we will likely update this projection once we get a better read on the track of the storm.

Enjoy your Saturday snow; our next update will take place Saturday afternoon.

Stickers Are Back!

The triumphant return of GSD stickers!

Sticker is 3"x3"

Want one? Venmo your name and address to (@greylocksnowday). It's $2 per sticker plus $0.63 for shipping.

Or, send a stamp-addressed envelope plus $2 per sticker to: 

Greylock Snow Day,
228 Cold Spring Road
Williamstown, MA 01267

A Looming Nor'easter

Yesterday, we mentioned two chances for the snow in the next few days. More information has come in, and the chances for plowable snow has increased for the Saturday and Tuesday storms.

The Saturday event is more of a minor perturbance, but the storm system is showing signs that it wants to track more to the north. We should see a snowy start to the day on Saturday, with a few inches in Southern Berkshire County and a ground covering in the north. The snow should end early in the afternoon.

The big weather newsmaker is the potential nor'easter for Monday night/Tuesday. Yesterday, the models were far apart, but today that is no longer the case. The Euro model is showing the potential for 18-22" of snow, and the North American is now clocking in with a 10-14" dumping.

The Euro (by the end of the day on Tuesday).

Both models are probably overplaying this storm, but it's looking more and more likely that a 6+" storm will hit the Berkshires on Tuesday. The big "if" with this storm is the air temperature. The ground temperature will be above freezing at the start (Monday afternoon/night), so we could see some rain mix in in valley locations before the colder air aloft gets sucked down due to the falling precipitation. Rain will obviously lower snow total. This is the one area we're concerned about that could wreck the snow party.

North American also now showing the potential for heavy snow.

It's very hard not to get too excited so many days out, but we could see the biggest snow of the season on Tuesday. We'll be working around the clock monitoring the latest reports so you can plan accordingly for next week.

More Snow?

Yes, we'll be Spring-ing the clocks ahead this weekend by one hour, but winter will still be in the air as we move into mid-March.

Due to a Greenland block, we are expected to see cooler temperatures and normal precipitation amounts for the next several weeks. In the short term, this means we have two chances for snow--one minor and one major--in the next six days.

Over the weekend a minor system will approach from our west and give us a few flakes. The bulk of the snow will fall our southeast, but the northern edge of the storm could push into the Berkshires on Saturday. Southern Berkshire could see a few inches with lower amounts to the north.

The bigger storm could impact the length of the school day on Tuesday. Right now the Europeon model is a showing a whopper of a nor'easter with the potential for over a foot of snow. The North American model, though, takes the storm farther to the south and is only showing the chance for a few inches. Unfortunately, the European model has been over-dramatizing storms for the last month (although it did do better this past Saturday), and because the models are in such disagreement right now, we would encourage everyone to curb their excitement until we can gather more information.

The European model is suggesting a major nor'easter will hit us Monday night into Tuesday.

But...should the Euro model prove to be right, the timing and amount of precipitation looks excellent and would lead to widespread snow days throughout the Berkshires and southern and eastern New England. 

Much more to follow later this week.

Winter Storm Watch for the Berkshires

While we do have a Winter Storm Watch up for the Berkshires for the Friday/Saturday storm, we have seen a shift downward in expected snow totals.

The models are still in disagreement, so an "all snow" event is still possible for us. But it appears a warm nose and a dry slot might sneak into our area after the storm starts, which will suppress snow totals.

NWS Albany

In terms of games, events, and performances on Friday night, we are now seeing a later start to the storm--more like 9 PM. This later start should put administrators more at ease, freeing the up to continue with their Friday plans. Saturday, however, is a different story.

Heavy snow will fall shortly after the storm begins, with possible rates of 1-2 inches per hour. After that initial burst, we could see that warm nose and dry slot, but then the coastal storm will form and give us light and moderate snow throughout the day on Saturday. Another complicating factor on Saturday will be high winds with gusts in the 30 and 40 mph range.

Travel will be slow Saturday morning, but road crews should be able to manage the snow by the early afternoon.

All told it looks like 3-4 inches in the southwest corner of the county with 6-8 up in the northwest corner. But we still think this storm has a chance to over-perform and double what is predicted above (for the Berkshires).

Delays and Weekend Storm Update

No delays for Berkshire County students, but our friends to the north in and around Bennington are seeing delays. Stamford and Southwestern Vermont Supervisory Union are going with the later start today.

NWS Albany and other local meteorologists are indicating that we're in for a big one this weekend. As of now it looks as if the snow will start around 6 PM and continue throughout the day on Saturday. 

As for games and performances on Friday night, schools would be prudent to move those events up a few hours if they have the resources and leeway to do so.

We should see a Winter Storm Warning announced later today. The Euro and North American models are both showing 6+ inches of snow for Berkshire County. The North American shows us getting over a foot by midnight on Saturday. But both models are showing a period of sleet several hours after the snow starts, so even the map above may be a little too aggressive with its snow total prediction.

More to come later today.

Freezing Rain and the Friday/Saturday Storm

Despite almost all students in the County getting snow days, yesterday's storm definitely underperformed. Most locations picked up 3 to 5 inches and most students probably should have had a snow day, but up here at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown, we didn't even get to 2 inches.

Despite the fizzle in the northwest corner, the models weren't too far off, especially the Euro. As you can see below, some places to our west did get the 6-10 inches that was predicted.

But now it's on to the next storms. We have two noteworthy weather developments to watch out for. There is currently a Winter Weather Advisory for Berkshire County because freezing rain is expected overnight. The morning commute could be slippery so there is an outside chance that a district in the north has a delay on Thursday.

The other concern is a potential moderate to heavy snow producer on track for Friday night and Saturday. This one could produce up to a foot of snow in our area. It's unlikely it will start early enough on Friday to get students out of school early, but Friday night and Saturday morning could be very snowy. The X-factor for this storm will be a potential prolonged period of sleet (after midnight), which would keep snow totals down but make for very hazardous driving Saturday morning.

There are quite a few games and performances on Friday night in the County, and currently it is very much touch-and-go whether those events will take place or need to be postponed. We'll keep monitoring it so all you readers know what to expect.

But the skiers and snow enthusiasts should be happy come Sunday. We could have over a foot base througout the County, which should last us a few more weeks.

The North American model for the storm this weekend.

The European model is less aggressive with its snow totals. If you average the two, we should end up with 6-8 inches countywide.

School Cancellations and Mapfest!

Only 1.3" in Williamstown so far, but it's a clean sweep for Berkshire County. Here is the list of schools who have cancelled or will start the day with a delay on Tuesday.

Winter Storm Warning for Berkshire County (Tuesday, Feb. 28)

After a terrible January (winter weather-wise), February is going to end on a high note.

NWS Albany has moved from a Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning. The snow will actually start a little later than was predicted yesterday. It should start in Berkshire County around 9 PM--give or take a half hour--which is even better news for the timing of the storm. 

We're now close enough to the storm's onset to look at some of the short-range models, and what they are suggesting almost guarantees snow days for the well-rested students of Berkshire County. 

Moderate and heavy snow bands will impact our area between 9 PM and 5 AM (a half inch to 1 inch per hour). The snow rates will taper in the morning hours before ending around dusk on Tuesday. Low end amounts will be 4-5 inches in the southwest corner of the County; high end amounts will be double digits in the northeast mountain towns.

NWS Albany's latest snow prediction.

Almost certainly, the folks in the eastern, higher elevations towns should have a snow day--the northeastern mountain elementary schools, Hoosac Valley, Central Berkshire, and Farmington River. 

The northern districts also will have enough snow to merit a full day off--North Adams, Mount Greylock, Pine Cobble, Hancock, and McCann. 

There's an outside shot that Pittsfield, Lenox, Lee don't get quite enough snow (due to their lower elevation) and see a delay instead of a delay, but we're really not expecting that outcome. 

The only iffy districts would be Southern Berkshire and Berkshire Hills. There could be a changeover to rain there that could lead to delays instead of full snow days, but that would only happen if the storm is a real bust (which it probably won't be).

The short-range NAM with its prediction (total as of 6 PM Tuesday)

Given the perfect timing, the Winter Storm Warning, and the cold air in place, we think that some Superintendents will get out ahead of this thing and call in the snow day tonight. Fingers are crossed that you hear the sweet, sweet sound of the Robocall tonight.

Winter Storm Watch for Monday Night and Tuesday (Feb. 27-28)

One of the earlier items on the "Are We Going To Get a Snow Day?" checklist is the Winter Storm Watch. And as of early Sunday morning, we can put a big check next to that one.

The Watch is for all of Berkshire County and starts at 4 PM Monday and ends at 10 PM on Tuesday. In terms of timing and duration for a storm, you can't get much better. That is, of course, if you want a snow day for Tuesday.

NWS Albany

The models are still in a tussle about the amount of precipitation and track of the main snow-producing low pressure system. The Euro is still lower on snow totals and pushes the storm further south and east. The North American is showing the more favorable northerly track for the storm. 

WWLP Springfield.

Either way it goes, we are looking at 3-4" for everyone in the County. If the North American model comes through, then we'll have many locations reporting in with 6+ inches.

Accuweather.

And if this storm doesn't pan out, we could see another blast of moderate or heavy snow on Friday. Snow days and early releases are possible for the Friday storm.

Latest Snowstorm Developments for Tuesday (Feb. 28)

We're going to keep this update fairly short as there isn't too much more to add other than A) it's going to snow staring Monday; B) models are in relative agreement; C) plows will be necessary; D) the timing is excellent.

NWS Albany has come out of the gates strongly with their first prediction map. This seems a little out of character for them as they tend to wait 36 hours before the start to put out their snow maps. Hopefully they are not wish-casting with this storm, but we really like what they are indicating so far:

NWS Albany initial snow map for Tuesday (Feb. 28).

The reason we at GSD are bullish on full snow day decisions for Tuesday is the excellent timing. With snow beginning on Monday night and lasting throughout the day on Tuesday, it will be hard for road crews to find a window to make the roads completely clear for buses to run their routes. Delays and early releases will likely not be a part of Superintendents' calculi when they make their decision, with a possible exception for Southern Berkshire and Berkshire Hills.

It's not a no-brainer yet, but if the current meteorological thinking holds true, most students in Berkshire County will have a shortened school week.

Snowstorm For Tuesday

We hope your hatches were battened down today. The wind should die down as we near midnight (Friday).

Before we get into discussion of the main course offering to start the work week, we should have a soupçon of snow to enjoy Saturday afternoon and evening. Most will see a dusting or up to an inch, but roads could be slippery for a stretch of time.

The Friday runs of the models are still showing a significant snowstorm that will begin Monday night and last throughout the day on Tuesday. There should be enough cold air in place for snow, but some meteorologists are thinking some mixed precip could work its way in, especially in valley locations.

Today's Euro model for the Tuesday storm. Not as "juicy" but still enough snow to cancel school.

The Euro run of the model at noon today pushed some of the heavier snow to our south and west, but it still shows moderate snow for much of Berkshire County. The North American and Canadian models are both showing 6-10" for everyone in the County. 

But there are several moving parts with this storm--one low pressure system from the Ohio valley will give way to two coastal lows that will strengthen as they move northeast--so it's way to early to get locked in with a snow prediction.

We still are encouraged by what we're seeing and are still expecting to see several superintendents make the snow day call on Tuesday.

Kudos to Dan Brown of Western Mass News for getting the hype started for Tuesday with this very early map. Love the enthusiasm!

Cancellations for Thursday / Potential Big Storm For Tuesday

Good morning! It's great to see the return of winter. We have a lovely mix of sleet, rain and snow falling in Williamstown with just over 3" on the ground so far (as of 8 AM Thursday).

We do have a few delays and cancellations this morning. Pine Cobble and MCLA opted for the full snow day; BCC went with the delay. No change to the schedule for Williams College. Public schools are on vacation this week.

The sleet, rain, and snow will continue until noon today and then we'll see a few interesting developments. The temps will gradually--very gradually--start to drop from around 30 this afternoon to low single digits by Saturday morning. Also, there will be a short period of mixed precipitation Thursday night that could slick up the roads for a few hours (7 PM to 12 AM). 

Despite temperatures in the 20s for most of the day on Friday, it's going to feel a lot colder as strong winds move into the Berkshires. Wind Chill values on Friday and Friday night will be sub-zero due. NWS Albany has issued a Wind Advisory for the Berkshires for Friday with some gusts approaching 50 mph.

Saturday shapes up to be a classically cold winter day--highs around 20 for the day. But the wind will have subsided so it will be a good day to bundle up and get outside and enjoy what's left of this winter.

But the big news is a developing situation for Monday night into Tuesday. We caution folks from getting too amped up about a storm five days in advance, but what makes this (potential) storm a little bit different as that the Euro, the North American, and even the Canadian models are all showing a moderate to heavy snowfall. Initial indicators would suggest widespread snow days for students on Tuesday. The GSD Staff is putting all resources toward tracking this storm, so we'll have many more reports on its development over the weekend.

North American model (for Tuesday's storm)

European model.

Canadian model.