Potential Mess (and Delays and Snow Days) for Monday

We have a developing winter weather situation for Monday that is potentially going to present a nightmare decision scenario for Superintendents.

Most of you probably know that it's going to rain buckets on Sunday. The Berkshires could see close to 2" of water and flood watches have been announced.

NWS Albany Forecast

As this big storm front moves through Sunday afternoon and night, the temperature is going to start to drop. And as the temp drops, the liquid will change over to snow. It's going to snow on Monday. We probably won't get a lot--mostly in the 1-2" range with higher totals in high elevation towns--but the timing could really tricky.

The American model (GFS). Wouldn't that be nice. Highly, highly unlikely.

Heavy wet snow is forecasted to start falling moderately somewhere between 6 and 8 AM. It could very likely be one of those situations where it's too late to delay buses, but once the buses run, the roads begin to grease up significantly. Delaying school by two hours will give road crews some time to treat the roads, but the snow could still be coming down just as moderately at the later start time. And, to top it all off, the snow will likely end around noon so the forecast won't support giving students a full snow day for what ultimately will be a 1.5-inch snow storm. 

A much saner prediction from the Euro model.

So, we're looking at a 6-hour window for snow on Monday. It could start at 6 AM; it could start at 8 AM. For Superintendents, its onset is in that window that makes almost any decision a criticizable one. 

We think that some school heads will not want to deal with the messy commute and they will keep students home for a few hours. We also will not rule out one or two districts going with the snow day. Keep on eye on the Confidence Meter for the next 36 hours.

Stay tuned! More tomorrow.