Monday (Dec. 11) Storm -- Evening Update

It sure doesn't feel like it's going to snow 3-6 inches tomorrow. With light rain and temps still in the 50s as of 5 PM Sunday, Spring seems like it's right around the corner.

But be assured that all this will change in a dramatic fashion when the storm front comes through. The rain will continue all night and the winds will pick up. As the temps get into the 30s, we'll see the changeover to snow. The big mystery is the timing of the changeover. Forecasters don't really know--we've seen as early as 3 AM and as late as 6 AM--so the snow day decision tomorrow morning is going to be based largely on the forecast.

Models this evening are now more in agreement but still showing a wide spread. The Euro is showing 2-7" south to north and the N. American model is showing 6-10" countywide. These numbers feel a little amped so 2-5 inches throughout the county is more reasonable. 

The most snow will fall in the northwest corner. The least amount will fall in the southeast corner. Mount Greylock, North Adams, Hoosac Valley districts and all the hill-town elementary schools (Clarksburg, Emma Miller, Gabriel Abbott) have the best chance for snow days. Pittsfield and Central Berkshire will be in the running for a snow day if the snow starts early enough. For South County districts (So. Berkshire, Berkshire Hills, Lee, Lenox), you're likely to see only a delay.

A couple of things we don't like about the storm are the warmth and the unpredictable nature of early season storms. The things we like about the storm are its strength and its timing.

The latest run of the Euro is coming around. The pink area in the northwest corner equals 7 inches.

Another huge factor is the mindset of your Superintendent. Historically, Supers are more lenient with the first storm. They haven't called one in a while, which means they haven't dealt with blowback from their constituents in some time. If this were storm number 4 or 5 and the snow days were starting to pile up (pun intended), then they would be more reluctant to call a snow day.

So, as long as it starts snowing by 5:30 or 6:00, we will see northern districts with snow days due to the forecast for 3-6 inches in about a five-hour period. There simply won't be time to clear the roads in time for the delayed start. Southern district schools will have to go with a delay due to the predicted low snow volume.

The big takeaway, then, is that there's room for optimism but don't get your hopes up. If you have a test or presentation or paper due, don't bank on a day off or an extra few hours to cram in some studying. It's wise to keep expectations low given the iffy-ness of the changeover time and the fact that it's not supposed to snow all day long.