Winter Weather Advisory for Monday, Dec. 11

In the battle between our two favorite models--the Euro and the North American--it looks like meteorologists are giving more credence to the North American model that we showed you yesterday.

NWS Albany has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Berkshires and Winter Storm Warnings for SouthernVermont and other parts north and west. The advisory now calls for a solid 3-8 inches of snow, and forecasters in Albany have hinted that the Advisory in the Berkshires could easily be upgraded to a Warning once a few more model runs come in. The storm is trending to a take more easterly line, which means colder air and more snow.

NWS Albany

With this uptick in the predicted snow totals, the plot thickens for Monday. The snow is still expected to begin around 6 AM tomorrow. Even though temps are in the 50s Sunday morning, the mercury will steadily drop throughout the day and night. The ground temperature will not get below freezing, but that will not prevent the much colder air aloft from producing snow. And because temps will be in the mid 30s when the snow begins to fall, it will be a heavy wet snow. Power outages are possible if the heavy wet snow accumulates quickly (which it might), but the windy conditions should shake the snow from tree limbs and minimize power problems.

The prediction for higher snow totals has perhaps made Superintendents' decisions a smidge easier in that calling off school will be more justified due to the forecast for 3-8 inches starting at the absolute worst time for the morning bus runs. The timing and rising snow totals are definitely working in our favor. 

We at GSD think that we will see the full gamut tomorrow--snow days, delays, and full school days. Students in western areas of Berkshire county and higher elevation districts have an even chance for the full snow day. South County schools will likely have a full day or delayed start.

This map is essentially clickbait, but it is somewhat useful in showing how much potential this storm has. It shows the highest end of snow predictions. This amount of snow is in the realm of possibility but unlikely.

Even though the storm is trending in the right direction, we might be in the middle of the "windshield wiper effect" that sometimes happens with the models. Light or moderate snow predictions made a few days ago suddenly grow much higher a day or two before the storm but then get re-adjusted back down as meteorologists start to factor in the short term models. It's a pattern we've seen dozens of times before, which is why 1-4 inches is more likely than 6-8.

We'll do one more post later today once we get more information to pin down the exact track and specific timing of the start of the snow.