Possible Bust For Friday But The Situation Is Fluid

Despite some optimism over the weekend, things are not trending in the right direction for the potential moderate to heavy snow storm on Friday.

The big issue is that the models are starting to come into agreement (often good news), but they are all suggesting that the track of the storm will be farther east and south than is optimal for snow in the Berkshires. Currently, we will still see 2-4 inches (higher totals in South County) for the Berkshires, but it will not be "the big one" that we've been waiting for.

But before you get too depressed and decide that this winter is a bust, put at least a little bit of faith in a few pieces of information:

1. We've written about the windshield wiper effect regarding the snow models in the past. Simply put, the models often predict a big storm 5-7 days out, then the models regress and show little snow, but then miraculously as the storm approaches they revert to to the initial more robust prediction. We've seen this pattern enough times of the years to know that it's a possibility for this storm. And given that the American model moved the storm closer to the coast in its last few runs, we might be seeing signs of the wipers moving back to their original snowy position. We'll know a lot more after the 6 AM model run on Thursday morning.

2. We can not exclude the rise in omicron cases from Friday's forecast. Let's just say that anxiety levels are a tad bit elevated in schools these days. Whether it's to ease the strain on staff and students or just the idea of getting students out of buildings for three days (Friday-Sunday), we could see some Superintendents call a snow day for Friday even if predicted snow totals are low. Some school heads might use the convenience of the poor driving conditions Friday morning call for a day off and ease some of the pressure that has been building up this week.

3. Whether we get 1 inch or 6 inches, the timing of the storm looks to be optimal. Currently, snow is expected to start very early Friday morning and will be falling in that critical hour (4-5 AM) when Superintendents get up and assess the situation.

The Euro

The American.

So, with these ideas in mind, GSD is not giving in to any winter pessimism that's out there. We are saying there is a chance, and we suggest you get on board and use your positivity to will this first snow day (for most of us) into existence. 

We're very eager to see tomorrow morning's model run and will update the situation midday.

Keep the faith.