Friday Storm Threat: Is It Really Going To Happen This Time?

Well, here we are again. We are four days out from the latest iteration of The Big Storm Of The Season™and, wouldn't you know it, the models are not in agreement. Again.

We talked about the boundary between the two fronts yesterday, and the real point of difference between the two main models, Euro and American, is the location of this boundary line. The Euro sets the boundary up to our north, cutting across Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. The American drops that boundary line all the way to New Haven, Connecticut and Warwick, Rhode Island.

The European model. Potential snow accumulation by Friday at 6 PM.

The American model. Potential snow accumulation by 6 PM on Friday.

Simply put: at this stage of the proceedings, the American model gives us 8-12 inches; the Euro gives us a few inches of snow in northern Berkshire County and a long period of sleet for all. Either way, chances are pretty good for a snow day if either forecast holds. The timing is spectacular--it starts early Thursday and will last through the day on Friday. Especially if the forecast for significant icing ends up proving to be true, many school districts will make the call for snow/ice day for Friday on Thursday night.

We'll see a lot of back and forth in the next few days from meteorologists, but the GSD Staff is allowing itself to feel some optimism about this storm. Much more to follow in the next few days.

Warming Up, Then Friday Storm

To all of those who have bought the GSD Staff a coffee or five--we're looking at you, JSG!--thanks so much. We really appreciate it, and it should allow the Best Staff Ever to power through to the month of February.

Euro map for Friday, by noon. What you see here is a classic stalled cold front. What isn't pictured is rain to the south of that snow boundary. Let's hope that boundary drops about 200 miles south.

We have a very interesting situation setting up for Friday. Unfortunately, it's anything but a certainty and we might have near miss part deux, this time to the north.

This storm is not going to be a nor'easter; precipitation will come from the west. Instead, a cold front is going to stall over our region. At the same time, warm air is going to force itself into New England from the southwest. This scenario will set up a warm air v cold air battle and amplify the precipitation. The range of possibilities is quite wide at the moment. In the Berkshires, we could have all rain for 36 hours. We could have mixed precipitation for a prolonged period. We could also have all snow, depending on where the boundary between the two air masses (cold and warm) sets up.

At the moment, the models (Euro and American) suggest that the boundary will sadly stay to our north: northern New York and New England will pick up a foot of snow or more Thursday into Friday and the Berkshires will see rain. But we will need to monitor this storm all week to see if there's any movement of the boundary south, which is a possibility.

Either way, Thursday and Friday will be wet/icy/snowy. There is  A LOT of moisture associated with this system, and we're pretty excited to see how things shape up by the end of the week.

Weekend Storm Update--Saturday Edition

It's a frigid 6° at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown, and as of 2:00 PM, the snow has stopped. 

The snow, though, will continue to fall in parts of the Berkshires throughout the afternoon and early evening, and it should all wrap up before midnight. While it is sad to be missing out on all the fun they're having over in the eastern sections of New England (although power outages are decidedly not fun), we aren't getting completely shut out, and for that we are thankful.

We'll probably end up with 2 inches in Williamstown and close to 6 inches in the southeast corner of the county. Sandisfield had almost 5 inches as of noon today. These totals are more in line with the snowfall predictions we were seeing emerge from the models on Wednesday.

The key weather concern this afternoon and evening will be a bitter wind chill and blowing snow. We're expecting to see gusts up around 30 mph, which will lead to wind chill values in the negative high teens and low twenties.

Even though this storm is more or less a bust, there's always the next one. Here's a model for Friday, February 4:

Temps will be in the mid-40s on Thursday, so this map is likely unrealistic. But we still have a lot of winter left, and at this point forward the law of averages should be working in our favor.

Weekend Storm Update--Friday Late Morning Edition

It's been a good 18 hours for snow lovers in the Berkshires. Things are looking up.

According to the models, the storm track is going to take a nice little jiggity-jog toward the west, and we are now more likely to see moderate and even heavy snow fall throughout Saturday. The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Winter Storm Watch for area, and there's even some talk in the shadowy recesses of a weather chat room of a future upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning.

To understand why you might be seeing a great deal of spread (2" to 14") in the predictions for Berkshire County,  you need to consider two very important factors that will dictate our snow totals. 

1) Many of the models use a snow to liquid ratio of 10 inches for every 1 inch of liquid (10:1). But because the air is going to so cold--mid-teens for highs on Saturday--snow to liquid ratios could approach 20:1 ratios. Many maps we're looking at are showing 4-8 inches for Berkshire County (north to south), but they are using a 10:1 ratio. So, don't be surprised if we hit double digits everywhere in the county as long as the storm follows its predicted track.

2) There is going to be steep and drastic cut off line with this storm. It's conceivable Berkshire County could see 3-5" and neighboring Franklin, Hampshire, and Hampden Counties could see 12-18". The reasons for this are the aforementioned cold air and the formation of intense snow bands. Somewhere in central or western mass, the western edge of the storm will bump up against the bitterly cold air, and there the twain shall meet. Right at that meeting point--that's where the snow is going to pile up. Let's hope that intersection is directly over US route 7.

Here's a very good image of snow band setting up vertically over central MA. We would want to see this set-up shift 100 mile to the west if we want 12-15" of snow.

As for timing, tonight will be completely dry. Snow should start as early as daybreak in South County and gradually edge north. The snow should end around midnight Saturday. The duration is fairly short.

This is model (the NAM) that meteorologists prefer right before a storm is about to happen. GSD fully endorses the NAM and really hope it's spot on. 

Weekend Storm Update -- Thursday Afternoon Edition

We're a day closer to the storm, but there's still a fair amount of uncertainty. The Berkshires will definitely not see the brunt of this storm, but you won't have to go too far east to see the snow pile up in a big way.

Winter Storm Watches are in effect for much of southern and southeastern Connecticut, all of Rhode Island, and coastal Massachusetts counties. Those will become Warnings later tonight and could even get bumped to Blizzard Warnings in some areas by Saturday.

One thing to note, which does explain why snow totals could be low for our area--the cold air mass that will move over us Friday night. With a high temperature expected to be in the mid-teens on Saturday, the warmer air from the storm is going to have a hard time pushing out the cold air and dropping snow onto us. It's unusual to see a big blockbuster snow with temperatures forecasted to be that low. 

The cold temps, as well as the eastern track of the storm, is why meteorologists are not predicting heavy snowfall for the Berkshires. Most of the maps are still showing a range of 1-3" up to 3-6", with higher totals expected for the southeast corner of the county.

Here are some regional maps for your viewing pleasure:

NWS Albany from earlier this morning. We expect an update from them soon.

NWS Boston. 

Accuweather

Channel 22 in Springfield. Maybe not the most flashy map but probably the most accurate for the Berkshires.

Weekend Storm Update -- Wednesday PM Edition

Today was a very cold day, but fortunately there was little wind, which made it tolerable. Temps simply won't go as low as expected tomorrow morning, so we will be very surprised if any districts spring for the 2-hour delay.

The weekend storm is causing a considerable amount of angst. (More accurately--it's the models and their predictions that are causing the agita.)

Because the major models are not in agreement, meteorologists are flummoxed, especially as they consider Western Mass. Southeastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, and eastern Massachusetts, including the Cape and the islands, have a high chance for 12+ inches of snow. That part of the prediction seems reliable. But because the storm is still over 48 hours away, we're not quite ready to say "lock it in" for eastern New England but we're close.

For the Berkshires, we are seeing quite the range of forecasts. Many meteorologists are putting us in the 2-4" zone or the 3-6" zone, so we appear to be right on the edge of a "big one." The GSD Staff isn't going to complain if we can get on the high side of those forecasts (6"), but given the intensity of this storm, it will be a little sad to miss out on the snow party that will be happening out east.

But there's still a lot of time left, and there are still many moving parts in the west and central parts of the country that will impact the track, intensity, and duration of the storm. So, as antsy as everyone is to want to know just what the heck is going to happen this weekend, we really need to be patient and wait until tomorrow evening (Thursday) and Friday morning before we should start to cancel plans for Saturday due to the snow.

Our gut instinct--in opposition to NWS Albany's initial snow map for this storm--says this nor'easter is sliding out to sea and we'll ultimately see a mere 2-4 inches. Of course we're going to root loudly for this storm to track to the west, but given the track record this winter, we are less than optimistic. Sorry, folks, but we're just observing the trends.

We'd be more than happy with this outcome. Kudos to NWS Albany for breaking the ice with this snow forecast. It will certainly change, but it's a start.

Cold Then Snow

We might get over 30 degrees today, but then temps are in a for a steep decline. Wednesday's high temp will be in the mid-teens and then we go down from there. Everyone wants to know if there will be freeze delays on Thursday. The short answer is...unlikely. 

A few days ago we were expecting temps in the -10 to -15 range for Thursday morning, but the forecast is warmer now. We will "only" drop into the negative single digits. But if there is little cloud coverage and radiational cooling occurs, we could go lower then the expected -4 to -7 degrees. The absence of wind and thus really low wind chill values means that delays, if any, will be more the exception than the rule.

Then, of course, the other big weather story is an impending coastal "bomb" of a low pressure system for the weekend. There is a lot of excitement about this storm, especially from the Weather Twitterati, but it is far from a sure thing. 

The Euro has been the most consistent run to run and is also presenting the most encouraging snow forecast. The American model spares the Berkshires a major hit but gives eastern New England a good thump of snow and even possible blizzard watches and warnings. The timing would be late Friday night and all day Saturday.

Snow accumulations by midnight on Saturday, according to the Euro. You can understand why some folks are losing their minds on this one.

This is not a forecast, but a meteorologist we like named Bernie Rayno is expecting at least 6 inches for all New England, with some places in central and southeast NE getting 2 feet of snow. He, too, cautions about reading too much into the surface maps of one model, but a plowable snow event is something we might have to contend with on Saturday. We're really hoping it's the storm that ensures snow-covered ground until late February.

Much, much more to follow.

This Week's Winter Weather (Jan. 24-30)

Just a heads up for the Flake Faithful out there that we could see a dusting of snow in Berkshire County this evening (Sunday), and maybe even a whole half an inch in South County. There's some moisture moving in from the west, with much of it evaporating before it reaching the ground, but some could break through and coat the roads.

We have a similar chance for a light snow tomorrow night as well. Unfortunately, neither of these light events will impact the start time for school Monday and Tuesday.

But what could impact the start time of school on Thursday is a deep freeze. We're seeing forecasts for temps in the -10 to -15 range for Thursday morning. That certainly classifies as "extreme cold" and could lead to some delays.

Finally, the big storm for the weekend is, as predicted, beginning to slide out to sea. It could have been a monster storm for eastern New England (24-30 inches), but the models continue to shift its track south and west of Cape Cod.

After this week we're seeing signs of shift to slightly warmer daily highs (mid-30s). That's not the direction we want to see winter heading in at this point in the proceedings.

It's pretty sad that in late January our hope for just a measly delay rides on really cold temps. But that's winter 2021-22 for you.

Not good!

Cold and Multiple Storm Opportunities

We don't have a ton of time tonight for a deep dive on all the upcoming chances for delays, snow days and storms, so here is the Cliff's Notes version:

*A 10% chance for freeze delays tomorrow (Friday) due to Wind Chill Advisory that is posted until 10 AM.

*The weekend storm is a likely a bust. As usual, it looked good three days ago but then it slid out to sea. The models are showing some recent northwestern movement, but it's still too far out to sea to impact our area other than with a few clouds.

 *A Clipper system will impact our area on Tuesday. It will be a light snow event, and the timing looks terrible for snow days and/or delays. But we may see 1-3 inches.

*The "next big one" is heading our way on January 31st. And if you believe that, we have a bridge in Brooklyn we'd like to sell you. (But, as is our responsibility, we'll monitor it for you so you don't have to.)

Winter face mask weather.

 

Possible Delays Thursday (Jan. 20)

Early in the week we picked up some chatter about another chance for a big storm on Saturday, but that ship has sailed. The two systems will not phase and will unfortunately slide out to sea to our south.

Instead, we'll enjoy a few days of very cold temps--high teens and low 20s for highs--on Friday and Saturday.

Channel 22 in Springfield coming in hot with a strong forecast for Thursday morning.

It may be sneaking under the radar (intended) for even some attentive weather watchers, but we could get a quick hit of snow right before and during the morning commute tomorrow. While we wouldn't say there's a high probability of delays, it's possible that the roads could be just slick enough at the right time especially for South County schools to get a delay.

As for future storms, something may be in the works for Wednesday. But in the meantime, temps will stay cold and allow for the snow on the ground to extend its stay in the Berkshires.

Winter Storm Warning (After All)

NWS Albany has upgraded our Watch to a Warning for all of Berkshire County. The details are snow starts around 11 PM with snowfall rates of up to 1 to 2 inches per hour between midnight and 7 AM. There will be a changeover to sleet and rain later in the morning, but by that point most of the county should have 5 inches on the ground and higher amounts in the eastern side of the County.

It's coming. Notice that beautiful comma shape. 

If the storm over-performs, which would not surprise us, we'll end up with a nice 8-10 inch base.

Another factor working in our favor is the cold air that is in place. We registered a toasty -10℉ around 6 AM on the trusty GSD Weather Station™. The storm will gradually lift the temperature above freezing as it overspreads our area, but the subzero temps will slow that process down and, ideally, give us several more hours for snow to fall.

Public schools have the day off tomorrow, but a few private schools out there do not. Given the timing of the storm and the uncertainty about the changeover to a sleet and rain as well as the strong winds that will be gusting to 40 mph, it's likely those schools will join their free education brethren with a day off.

And now some maps:

WRGB in Albany. A perfectly acceptable map.

WWLP in Springfield. We like this one.

Weather Underground/Intellicast. This map also meets our approval.

Bad News For Snow Lovers

We simply can not catch a break with predicted storms this winter. Our first storm back around Thanksgiving over-performed, but since then it has just been one disappointment after another. 

The worst case scenario--the inland track of the storm toward our west--appears to be what's going to happen. Obviously, there is a fair amount of cold air in place, so we definitely will see some an initial burst snow once it starts. 

The big unknown is the timeline of the changeovers from snow to mixed precipitation to rain. NWS Albany is communicating that the changeover will occur before sunrise for most of Berkshire County, but that prediction was made very early this morning and is likely subject to change.

We expect to see adjustments to this map later today and tomorrow.

Right now we think we all will see between 2 and 5 inches of snow with higher amounts approaching a foot in the higher elevation towns of Northern Berkshire. The changeover to rain will be quicker in South County, and we could see a few hours of sleet midday especially in Hancock, Lanesboro, Cheshire, and Savoy and points north.

Precipitation from this storm will last throughout the day on Monday, and it won't surprise us at all if the rain changes back to snow for a brief period Monday night with light accumulations of an inch or less.

One other complicating piece to this puzzle is the wind. We are going to see very strong winds in the initial 5-6 hours of the storm. Gusts up to 50 mph are possible, so don't be surprised to see power outages here and there.

Monday looks like another day more suited to indoor activities. And of course weather fanatics are already scoping out another storm next Sunday. Sounds familiar.

Wind Chill Warning and Winter Storm Watch

 You know about the dangerous cold coming tonight and the Winter Chill Warning for our area with sub -30 temps tomorrow morning.

But the bigger weather news is that meteorologists are giving many indicators that a major snow storm will take place late on Sunday night and through much of the day on Monday. There is a still a chance that a nose of warm air could work its way into the Berkshire County and change the snow to rain Monday afternoon, but the snow damage will be done at that point with 6+ inches on the ground.

A promising early map from NWS Albany.

Right now a Winter Storm Watch is in effect. Given the trends and the forecast models, it's highly likely that the Watch will become a warning between 6 AM and 12 PM tomorrow.

GSD Staffers are confident that 8+ inches will fall in the Berkshires, with higher elevations (especially eastern hill towns) seeing over a foot. If Monday were not a holiday, we would see all schools in Berkshire County going with a snow day due to the excellent timing and long duration.

Still a strong signal from the Euro model. 

Get out the high snow boots and find the extra shovel. And the good news is the cold air will be in place for a few weeks, so the snow won't be going anywhere even if we see the changeover to rain.

MLK Jr. Weekend Update

Just a few notes today as we gird for a very wintery weekend.

NWS Albany has called for a Wind Chill Warning for Friday night and Saturday morning. Usually, we get the Advisory, but the Warning means business. 

Here's an idea: don't go outside between 10 PM and 9 AM, if you can avoid it. Between 5 PM and 10 PM, the temperature is expected to drop 15 degrees. We'll be below zero after midnight and the winds will kick up wind chill values between -20 and -35 degrees Fahrenheit. 

Freezy Friday and a Snowy Monday (We Hope)

Tomorrow will be fairly spring-like--low 40s and breaks of sun--but it's all down hill after that. Friday will be seasonable, but the temperature will begin to plummet and the winds are going to kick up something wicked, as they say over in the east.

Friday night and Saturday morning will be most unpleasant. Positive single digits Friday night will become negative single digits (-2 to -5) by daybreak. And the wind will be absolutely howling, with some gusts up to 35 mph. If you go outside Saturday morning, don't expose any skin and limit how long you stay outside. And keep an eye on any pets and how they're managing the cold.

Guidance from NWS Albany regarding the wind chills.

Saturday will be bone-chilling--probably slightly colder than the big freeze day on Tuesday--and Saturday night won't be a picnic, either. 

Sunday night is when things get very interesting on the snow front. Yes, it's disappointing that Monday is a holiday for almost all schools in the county, but snow beggars can not be snow choosers.

The big variable is the track of the storm. Usually we worry about storms going out to sea. For this one, the concern may be that the storm tracks too far to our west. If the low pressure system hugs the coast and we stay on the west side of the storm center, we'll get pounded with heavy snow. If we end up on the east side, we'll start out as snow but then warm air will race in and change over to rain.

Accuweather is on board with the coast-hugging low pressure system.

The models this evening seem to be tilting slightly toward the coast-hugging track, which is the news we want to hear. We're not going to go ga-ga over this storm just yet--A) its on a holiday and B) we're still four days out--but it certainly is promising.

More to come.

Freeze Days/Delays Unlikely For Wednesday

Just a quick update tonight about the possibility for freeze delays or days tomorrow (Wednesday). 

Despite the -1 showing up on the weather station at GSD Headquarters in Williamstown as of 8 PM Tuesday, a "warm" front is moving in overnight and temps should gradually rise as we move toward daybreak. It will be at least a balmy 13 degrees in most locations by the time buses roll tomorrow for the high-schoolers.

As for snow, we're starting to hear some rumblings about a Sunday/Monday storm, so the weekend snow storm is back in the conversation. A lot of this chatter has to do with two relatively suddenly very robust runs of the American (GFS) and the European (ECMWF) model. The American shows the bulk of the snow falling on Sunday; the Euro shows a blockbuster storm for Monday.

We're definitely taking these runs of the models seriously and will be monitoring them 'round them clock. No sleep til Sunday.

Here's the GFS model (for Sunday) causing weather nerds to lose their minds. 

Just an FYI: At the moment, Saturday is expected to be colder than today with highs around 5 degrees. Friday night's temps will be well below zero. Prepare to re-bundle!

We're very excited to track this weekend storm potential because we really need more than a base of 1.5 inches of snow. Let's hope skiers have something to celebrate by Monday.

Delays and Freeze Days for Tuesday, January 11

We'll update this list as we learn more. Details below. Last update: Tuesday 1/11 6:23 AM

NO SCHOOL:

Adams-Cheshire

BART

Berkshire Hills

Central Berkshire

Clarksburg 

Emma Miller 

Farmington River

Lee

Lenox

Mount Greylock

North Adams

Pittsfield 

Richmond Consolidated

Southern Berkshire 

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

none

Watching Freeze Delays for Tuesday

While it seems unlikely, we might see a few freeze delays tomorrow in Berkshire County. 

Temps will steadily decline from the upper teens to around zero tonight. Add in wind, which is forecasted in the 10-15 mph range, and you have wind chill values between -15 and -25 degrees. And of course that's when children will be standing out at bus stops. There is, in fact, a Wind Chill Advisory in effect tonight until 3 PM Tuesday.

6 AM expected temps with wind chill tomorrow.

So, we could see a few communities decide to postpone the start of school. The only problem with that decision is that the temperature is only going to go up a few degrees even with the 9:30 or 10:00 start. Highs tomorrow will be in the single digits. As a result of the forecasted cold, Boston schools have a day off. But they obviously have a lot more walkers then riders in parts of Boston.

Messy Sunday; Brutal Cold Tuesday

Well, we've survived the first week of 2022...barely.

It's been a rough week, but at least some of the students in the area got to sleep in today or enjoy a day off. The models did a fairly good job with their predictions. Certainly that was the case at the GSD Home Office where we ended up getting the forecasted 2 inches most models were showing.

The models get a lot of criticism, but so far this winter they've been spot on the day before a storm for our area.

Eastern Mass got pounded by this storm and it over-performed in a big way. Parts of Massachusetts southwest of Boston will see 14-20" when this storm final spirals its way out of the Gulf of Maine.

Next up is a shot of snow/wintry mix during the day on Sunday. We could see a slushy inch or two, but then the bigger weather news will be the intense shot of cold air expected for Tuesday. Highs will be in the single digits on Tuesday, and Tuesday night, temps will drop below zero. 

Before you get ahead of yourselves, freeze delays are highly unlikely for Wednesday. We would need to get to double digits below zero before school heads start entertaining that idea.

After the cold air passes through, the week looks milder and quiet, but then the weather machine will ramp up the excitement again for a weekend storm. Sadly, we will not get to partake in the snow day prediction game due to the holiday on Monday. But we will gladly take a massive storm.

Snow reports as of 3:30 PM on Friday.

Delays, Days Off -- Friday, January 7

Snow arrived right on time. It's light but coming down steadily. It should last until noon.

Here's the list (updated 7:23 AM):

NO SCHOOL:

BART

Emma Miller

Gabriel Abbott

North Adams

Taconic HS, Reid Middle (Pittsfield--all other schools open with a 2-hour delay)

TWO-HOUR DELAY:

Adams-Cheshire

Central Berkshire

Clarksburg

Hancock

Hillcrest Academy

Hoosick Falls

Mount Greylock

New Lebanon

Pittsfield (but Taconic, Reid closed)

Southern Berkshire

Snow Totals Ticking Up

It will be light, but snow is still expected to fall throughout Berkshire County late this evening and through the late morning hours. A Winter Weather Advisory goes into effect at midnight. Snow amounts are expected to be between 2 and 5 inches.

It should be snowing during the key decision-making hour for Superintendents, and it should be snowing during the bus runs. Delays are becoming increasingly likely.

Incrementally, the forecast models are pushing the storm further west. This is a good sign. But--and there always seems to be a "but"--some models are showing a possible dry slot that could keep the measurable snow to our southeast and north.

The other good news is that we'll be 5 or 6 degrees below freezing when the snow starts. This means the snow will be light and fluffy and pile up more quickly. Ten or twelve inches of snow per inch of liquid is typical, but with this storm we could see a 15:1 ratio. Models are forecasting between .2 and .25 inches of liquid.

We also continue to want to impress upon the Flake Followers of the impact that the rising number of Covid cases could have on the decision to go for the full snow day. Cancelling school for the day would be one sure way to slow the spread, as many Superintendents are likely fully aware.

Delays Possible For Friday

Meteorologists are starting to convert the models into snow prediction maps for Friday. The outlook isn't looking good for the Berkshire clime that day. 

We'll see snow, but the totals are underwhelming. In the end we'll get 1-3 inches of snow. South County and east-facing slopes dwellers will be on the higher end of the prediction. If the storm overperforms--which is always a possibility--the most we'll see is 4-5 inches.

Image courtesy of NWS Albany.

Image courtesy of NWS Albany.

The saving grace for this storm is it's timing. Snow should start between 1 and 2 AM and last throughout the morning. The morning commute will likely be slower due to the snow, so delays are very much on the table--as many as 1 in 3 students could see a delay. We also will not rule out a snow day for a few students due to Covid anxiety, as discussed in yesterday's post. 

There is still plenty of time for things to change for this storm and snow totals go up, but a shortened school day is far from a sure thing on Friday.

If this storm does flame out, there already is another one in the chute being discussed excitedly by weather hounds. The target date for this one is January 16. [Checking the calendar...] Of course, that storm will hit as it's right smack in the middle of a three-day weekend.

Possible Bust For Friday But The Situation Is Fluid

Despite some optimism over the weekend, things are not trending in the right direction for the potential moderate to heavy snow storm on Friday.

The big issue is that the models are starting to come into agreement (often good news), but they are all suggesting that the track of the storm will be farther east and south than is optimal for snow in the Berkshires. Currently, we will still see 2-4 inches (higher totals in South County) for the Berkshires, but it will not be "the big one" that we've been waiting for.

But before you get too depressed and decide that this winter is a bust, put at least a little bit of faith in a few pieces of information:

1. We've written about the windshield wiper effect regarding the snow models in the past. Simply put, the models often predict a big storm 5-7 days out, then the models regress and show little snow, but then miraculously as the storm approaches they revert to to the initial more robust prediction. We've seen this pattern enough times of the years to know that it's a possibility for this storm. And given that the American model moved the storm closer to the coast in its last few runs, we might be seeing signs of the wipers moving back to their original snowy position. We'll know a lot more after the 6 AM model run on Thursday morning.

2. We can not exclude the rise in omicron cases from Friday's forecast. Let's just say that anxiety levels are a tad bit elevated in schools these days. Whether it's to ease the strain on staff and students or just the idea of getting students out of buildings for three days (Friday-Sunday), we could see some Superintendents call a snow day for Friday even if predicted snow totals are low. Some school heads might use the convenience of the poor driving conditions Friday morning call for a day off and ease some of the pressure that has been building up this week.

3. Whether we get 1 inch or 6 inches, the timing of the storm looks to be optimal. Currently, snow is expected to start very early Friday morning and will be falling in that critical hour (4-5 AM) when Superintendents get up and assess the situation.

The Euro

The American.

So, with these ideas in mind, GSD is not giving in to any winter pessimism that's out there. We are saying there is a chance, and we suggest you get on board and use your positivity to will this first snow day (for most of us) into existence. 

We're very eager to see tomorrow morning's model run and will update the situation midday.

Keep the faith.

Temps in Free Fall; Late Week Storm?

An update on the Covid-testing chances for delays or cancellations for Monday:

A few more schools in eastern Massachusetts have decided to go with delays and/or cancellations to allow for testing to occur, but those decisions have been more sporadic than wide-spread. The Massachusetts state teachers' union has called for a day off tomorrow to allow testing to take place; the Commonwealth has rejected that request. So, it's up to your school district to determine if there will be any change to the length of the school day. 

Perhaps the smartest decision would be for school to start on time, but building officials should create a buffer period to allow for testing to take place before classes begin. That plan would probably be easier to implement at the middle and high school level.