Winter Weather Advisory for Berkshire County for Tuesday

Ahead of schedule, NWS Albany has posted a Winter Weather Advisory for most of Tuesday. The good folks over there think the snow will start at or before the critical time slot (4-6 AM), and snow totals have ticked up slightly to 2-6 inches. Also, it looks like South County will see a period of ice at some point (sleet and freezing rain) in the morning or midday hours.

NWS-Albany image.

Here are a few maps from models. The first one is from a model called the NAM (The NA in NAM stands for North American, not North Adams). It's less reliable, typically:

That's a lot of snow for NYC. This second map is from the US model, a.k.a. the GFS:

This model is not as good as the Euro, but it did well on the blockbuster storm from a few weeks back. Maybe this year will be a good one for the GFS.

The timing is going to be the backbreaker. Superintendents will not make everyone happy on this one and will have to go with a call that will A) be safe for students and B) keep the noisiest of their stakeholders at bay. No easy task there.

We do favor the US model at the moment and will bump up the Confidence Meter slightly because of the increase in the amount of expected snow as well as the threat of ice to the south. Given the timing of the onset, it looks like South County schools will have a better chance for snow days or early releases than students from Pittsfield and districts to the north.