Tuesday: Expect Snow and Mixed Precipitation

This blustery Sunday has produced snow showers and squalls all day--despite the temps in the low 40s--and we just received a dusting at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown. Those showers and squalls should die down as the big rain storm from yesterday final lifts out of the region.

Monday will be a typical uneventful winter day--partly cloudy with temps in the low 30s. But then the fun starts after midnight (and by "fun" we mean "messy").

The storm is essentially moving due east. There's a first part that will bring mixed precipitation to north Pennsylvania and New Jersey and NYC tomorrow afternoon; that part will miss us to the south. But then part two of the storm follows the same westward track and moves into the Berkshires early Tuesday morning. The last few runs of some of the models have shown that the storm may have more oomph than was we thought as of yesterday. It's not going to be blockbuster--the top end will be 6 inches and the low end will be only an inch.

Image courtesy of Accuweather.

This storm will be all about the timing as there isn't that much snow predicted with it at this point. We do think the snow will start before daybreak, which will be essential if we hope to get snow days on Tuesday. It's safe to say that snow days and early releases will be more likely than delays as the snow or mixed precipitation is supposed to fall throughout the day on Tuesday.

Another feature of this storm will be what is called "banding." Because warm air from the south is pushing up against cold air from the north, there will be bands of moderate snow and mixed precipitation that will form along the boundary of these air masses. Get stuck in one of these bands and you could see the high end forecast (6"). If the band misses you, you'll get nothing and like it, as Judge Elihu Smails is fond of saying. These bands are very hard to predict, which is why you won't see very high numbers on the Confidence Meter.

Right now, based on the models and the experts' opinions, we think we'll see a 2-4" event. If it's snowing between 4 and 6 AM Tuesday morning, we definitely will see some schools call in a snow day or early release, but we don't think this storm will have enough power to cancel school for everyone in the County. Do expect a Winter Weather Advisory to be announced tomorrow in the middle of the day.

Check in tomorrow and tomorrow night as this storm will be unpredictable and could produce some surprising results.