Ice Storm: Monday PM Update

This sure has been a kooky weather day for our region. Higher elevations saw freezing rain and power outages; mid-level elevations had a lot of sleet; valley locations saw a lot of rain; there was a thunderstorm (!) south of Springfield that produced quarter-sized hail. You can now see this one was a hard one to nail down.

And we still have a mess on our hands through tomorrow morning. The bulk of the rain/sleet/snow has passed to our east, but drizzle and intermittent showers will persist throughout the night. Ice will continue to accumulate--again--depending on your elevation. The temperature should stay relatively flat throughout the night so what you see right now is what you'll get.

The morning commute on Tuesday will likely be slow again. Hopefully, things will get cleaned up for New Year's Eve festivities. But black ice could be a problem for any late night revelers trying to get home so we suggest you pack a travel bag, ditch the keys, and just sleep over wherever you may be reveling.

We are eyeing a potential storm for Wednesday, January 8.

Ice Storm: Monday AM Update

The Ice Storm Warning is still in effect for the Berkshires. We have a light coating of sleet in Williamstown where it is 34 degrees. This will be an elevation dependent storm. NWS Albany is forecasting significant icing for those at 1200 feet and higher. Those in lower locations still may still get ice but temps are slightly warmer than expected in some valley locations.

NWS Albany

We should see intermittent rain, sleet and freezing rain throughout the day today. And we do have a few cancellations to pass on:

Childcare of the Berkshires has cancelled transportation for today.
MCLA is closed for today.
Bennington College is closed for today.

Ice Storm Update: Sunday PM

The rain has started in Berkshire County, but most locations are above freezing at this point (7 PM Sunday). Temps will edge their way closer to freezing around midnight--depending on your elevation--and we should see ice in the form of sleet and freezing rain somewhere between midnight and 3 AM.

The morning commute looks like it will be treacherous, especially for high elevation towns and east-facing slopes of the Berkshires. The lower your elevation, the less chance you'll have of significant icing. Some part of South County may be spared any ice.

NWS Albany

While NWS Albany has lowered its ice totals from .5 inches in Pittsfield/Dalton to .4 inches, that's still a significant amount of ice which will wreak havoc on the Berkshires, especially as the wind kicks up and puts extra pressure on ice-laden branches. Power outings during the day on Monday are likely in higher elevation towns.

We'll try to pass on ice reports as they come in tomorrow. If you have any conditions to report, feel free to put them in the  comment sections on our Facebook post(s).

Ice Storm Warning for Berkshire County

The rare Ice Storm Warning has been issued for Berkshire County starting at 5 PM this evening and ending at 7 AM Tuesday. Despite the uncertainty we detailed in the previous post, this is not a storm to take lightly.

Main roads will be iffy tomorrow and side roads could be flat out dangerous. You will really need to monitor local conditions carefully if you must head out on Monday, especially in the morning. It's almost assured that any practices and games tomorrow and tomorrow night will have to be postponed. If school were in session, we would have a full county sweep for cancellations, most of which would have been called in the night before.

NWS Albany. That's a lot of ice for mid-county.

The other thing to watch for is power outages. The wind is supposed to kick up, which will help shake off ice on tree limbs, but it also could hasten the breaking of those limbs. We rarely advocate racing out to the grocery store and stocking up, but if you normally do your weekly food shopping on Mondays, you might want to take care of that chore today.

When the ice will start to form is not totally clear, but it will likely start after midnight. We could see a few inches of snow first in Dalton and points northward before the changeover to sleet and then freezing rain. Whether you get snow, sleet or freezing rain will be very hard to pinpoint. An extended period of freezing rain will do the most damage while extended sleet will make travel nearly impossible.

We'll do one more update later this evening.

Ice Storm Alert: Winter Storm Watch Announced for Sunday Night & Monday

Despite the warm temperatures we have been enjoying, winter is trying to make its presence felt one more time before we flip the calendar to a new decade.

The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Berkshires for Sunday night and Monday because significant icing is expected. "Significant" to the NWS folks means a half inch or more of freezing rain and sleet. If we get close to a half inch of freezing rain, we would likely see tree damage and power outages.

The reason for the Watch is that we have a goodly amount of moisture coming at us from the west. The temperature will be at or around freezing Sunday night. The surface temperature will stay around freezing while the air temperature aloft (where the precipitation is coming from) will be above freezing. As the rain falls to the surface, the liquid will turn to a solid known as ice.

NWS Albany

We should point out that predicting ice storms is much, much trickier than even predicting thunderstorms. A half a degree temperature change in either direction can have big implications. Add in elevation and temperature variances and you can see quickly how difficult it is get a good read on who will get ice and who will get plain rain. Right now the meteorological consensus is that Western Mass will have all the right ingredients for several hours of icing.

Another factor for your consideration: for the public safety reasons, meteorologists will lean toward the worst case scenario with ice storms so that the public can prepare properly. This means that they are wrong about ice more often than not. So, there is a good chance that the ice will not be as bad as forecasters are saying, but in the 1 out of 20 times that an ice storm actually hits, you would definitely want to know the worst possible outcome.

A case in point of the un-forecastability of ice storms. Good luck interpreting this map. (NWS Albany)

We'll keep an eye on it. Right now we would expect that driving conditions will be dicey if not outright dangerous from 10 PM Sunday through late morning Monday. A few more runs of the models should allow meteorologists to give a more precise forecast.

(FYI: In the end of year review of the models, the Euro continues to get better and better five days out from a storm while the US model's results are still inconsistently reliable. So we'll look harder at the Euro over the next 24 hours and let you know what it says.)

Winter Weather Advisory for Thursday Night, December 26

Happy Holidays! It's vacation week for most, but we did want to briefly update you about possible ice this evening in Northern Berkshire county.

Light rain will move into the area from the west much later tonight (around 11 PM). With temps around freezing, roads could slick up in the overnight hours. The temperature will slowly rise tomorrow morning, but anyone who has to work tomorrow should be mindful of patchy ice. North County and high elevations in South County are the most likely to be impacted.

More messy weather is expected next week. No major snow storms are in sight, but travel could be affected next week Monday night and then maybe Wednesday as well.

Wait 'Til Next Year...

Happy snow day, everybody. Unless of course you go to school in Pittsfield or Lee, who got shut out of the party today. Of the "Big 9" in Berkshire County, they were the only ones without some kind of shortened or eliminated day.

We definitely low-balled our Confidence Meter with a 50% snow-day projection, and we thought for sure there would have been releases today. This particular GSD staff member can attest that the two-hour delay was NOT the right call, as the snow was steady and the roads were very messy between 9 and 9:45 when most high schoolers would have been traveling to school. The afternoon commute would not have been that rough, but all in all Superintendents took the hit, called another snow day, and are ready to move on to 2020.

The models and NWS Albany got this one right for Northern Berkshire County, but the mixed precipitation crept north and held most South County locales to just a few inches. Here are the latest snow reports. [Ed. note: This page seems to be down as of 8:30 PM 12/17; hopefully it will be back in action soon because it's a great resource.]

NWS Albany snow totals.

As for our next snow storm, we were looking at a big storm for the 23rd a few days ago, but that storm has evaporated. Maybe the models will bring it back; unfortunately, we may have to wait until January for our next plowable event.

DO expect it to be very cold to end the week. Highs on Thursday and Friday will be in the teens, and some of us could see negative temps Thursday, Friday and Saturday morning. At the very least Berkshire County will be in the single digits for the AM commute to end the week. Wind chills values could be in the negative teens Thursday morning--bundle up! But don't even think about it--freeze delays will not be an option.

Should any new snow news pop up, we'll let you know. We do expect to post throughout the vacation because of the winter sports schedule. If you decide not to check in with us during the vacation, have a happy holiday break!

Snow Days and Delays for Tuesday, December 17

As of 5 AM, it's snowing lightly at the GSD Home Office and roads are snow covered. The radar indicates that we will see many more hours of snow, and it should pick up in intensity in the next 2-4 hours. The track appears to be slightly more north than expected, so the northern half of Berkshire County could see more snow than the southern tier. We are still expected to see 4-6 inches throughout Berkshire County by the end of the day.

School districts are starting to call in their decisions, and the initial ones are for full snow days. Here's what we have so far. This list will be updated throughout the morning.

SNOW DAY:

Adams-Cheshire
BART
Bement School
Berkshire Christian (Lenox)
Berkshire Country Day School
Berkshire Hills
Berkshire Montessori
Berkshire Waldorf School
Berkshire Waldorf High School
Central Berkshire
Child Care of the Berkshires transportation (Magic Seasons and Monument Square -- 1 hour delay)
Clarksburg
Emma Miller
Farmington River Regional SD
Florida
Gabriel Abbott Memorial
Hancock
Hoosick Falls
Kinderhof Waldorf School
Lenox
Mohawk Trail
Mount Greylock Regional
New Lebanon
North Adams
Northern Berkshire Vocational
Richmond Consolidated
Southern Berkshire
Southwest Vermont SU

TWO-HOUR DELAY

Pine Cobble School

Snow Totals Are Up

Good evening, and welcome to GSD for more pre-storm action. Every run of the models today has appeared to improve our situation ever so slightly. The Winter Weather Advisory is still in place, and the consensus from the region's experts is that the Berkshires is solidly in a 4-6 inch zone, with some places--high elevation towns in North County--possibly seeing 8 inches.

NWS Boston

There's a slight chance we could see NWS Albany go with the Winter Storm Warning later tonight, but we're not holding our breath. If that happens, then Superintendents might feel more comfortable calling school off for Tuesday.

We've seen no change to the expected start to the storm. South County might see the earliest flakes between 2 and 3 AM, and the snow line will gradually lift northward. It should be snowing throughout Berkshire County by 4 AM. With cold air firmly in place, the snow won't have trouble sticking to the roads at all and should start to accumulate fairly quickly.

WNYT Albany (Channel 13)

The bulk of the snow is expected to fall between 4 AM and the early afternoon hours, and then we'll see lighter snow all the way to 9 PM. Whether schools are in session for a partial day or a full day or not, it's unlikely that we'll see many after school activities or games tomorrow. That you can almost assuredly can count on.

So, what does the GSD Staff think? After a longer than normal go-around on this one this afternoon, we think it's a 50/50 proposition: about half the schools will see a snow day (especially South County because of their earlier start) and half will go with the full day or early release. The problem with the early release is that it could still be snowing steadily at the time of the release.

Western Mass News

As we have stated for several days, so much will come down to the relative courage of your friendly Superintendent. Given the forecast for an all-day snow event, it will be a bit of a gamble to try to squeeze in a full or half day. The risk-free decision is to pull the plug early and call it a snow day, as long as snow is falling between 5 and 6 AM.

If this were the first storm of the season, then we think there would be widespread snow days tomorrow. But because we've already used one of our Get Out Of School Free cards earlier in the month--and some schools used two--Supers may be a little reluctant to cash in on another one seeing as it is only December.

An additional graphic from WNYT Channel 13. The ride home would be rough if this forecast proves to be accurate.

Let's keep an eye on that Winter Storm Warning upgrade potential, as that may be the coaxing school chiefs need to give the students of Berkshire County a pre-holiday snow holiday.

[In the unlikely event that a district makes its decision tonight, we'll start up the list. But this will be our last extended post of the evening. If we do get the upgrade, we'll let folks know through Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.]

Winter Weather Advisory for Berkshire County for Tuesday

Ahead of schedule, NWS Albany has posted a Winter Weather Advisory for most of Tuesday. The good folks over there think the snow will start at or before the critical time slot (4-6 AM), and snow totals have ticked up slightly to 2-6 inches. Also, it looks like South County will see a period of ice at some point (sleet and freezing rain) in the morning or midday hours.

NWS-Albany image.

Here are a few maps from models. The first one is from a model called the NAM (The NA in NAM stands for North American, not North Adams). It's less reliable, typically:

That's a lot of snow for NYC. This second map is from the US model, a.k.a. the GFS:

This model is not as good as the Euro, but it did well on the blockbuster storm from a few weeks back. Maybe this year will be a good one for the GFS.

The timing is going to be the backbreaker. Superintendents will not make everyone happy on this one and will have to go with a call that will A) be safe for students and B) keep the noisiest of their stakeholders at bay. No easy task there.

We do favor the US model at the moment and will bump up the Confidence Meter slightly because of the increase in the amount of expected snow as well as the threat of ice to the south. Given the timing of the onset, it looks like South County schools will have a better chance for snow days or early releases than students from Pittsfield and districts to the north.

Tuesday: Expect Snow and Mixed Precipitation

This blustery Sunday has produced snow showers and squalls all day--despite the temps in the low 40s--and we just received a dusting at the GSD Home Office in Williamstown. Those showers and squalls should die down as the big rain storm from yesterday final lifts out of the region.

Monday will be a typical uneventful winter day--partly cloudy with temps in the low 30s. But then the fun starts after midnight (and by "fun" we mean "messy").

The storm is essentially moving due east. There's a first part that will bring mixed precipitation to north Pennsylvania and New Jersey and NYC tomorrow afternoon; that part will miss us to the south. But then part two of the storm follows the same westward track and moves into the Berkshires early Tuesday morning. The last few runs of some of the models have shown that the storm may have more oomph than was we thought as of yesterday. It's not going to be blockbuster--the top end will be 6 inches and the low end will be only an inch.

Image courtesy of Accuweather.

This storm will be all about the timing as there isn't that much snow predicted with it at this point. We do think the snow will start before daybreak, which will be essential if we hope to get snow days on Tuesday. It's safe to say that snow days and early releases will be more likely than delays as the snow or mixed precipitation is supposed to fall throughout the day on Tuesday.

Another feature of this storm will be what is called "banding." Because warm air from the south is pushing up against cold air from the north, there will be bands of moderate snow and mixed precipitation that will form along the boundary of these air masses. Get stuck in one of these bands and you could see the high end forecast (6"). If the band misses you, you'll get nothing and like it, as Judge Elihu Smails is fond of saying. These bands are very hard to predict, which is why you won't see very high numbers on the Confidence Meter.

Right now, based on the models and the experts' opinions, we think we'll see a 2-4" event. If it's snowing between 4 and 6 AM Tuesday morning, we definitely will see some schools call in a snow day or early release, but we don't think this storm will have enough power to cancel school for everyone in the County. Do expect a Winter Weather Advisory to be announced tomorrow in the middle of the day.

Check in tomorrow and tomorrow night as this storm will be unpredictable and could produce some surprising results.

Snow and/or Ice for Tuesday

We caught a break with the rain today and are enjoying a nice dry patch before it starts up again later tonight. Central NY is getting pounded as temps are well into the 40s and 50s in the region, but we in the Berkshires might avoid some of the flooding that was predicted.

But we know you're really only interested in Tuesday's event. Unfortunately, we haven't learned much new as of today. The Euro is still saying it will be colder while the US model says warmer. We have seen reports that the amount of precipitation will be there for a plowable snow (should we get snow). We're expected to get at least a quarter inch of liquid precipitation, which would yield 4 inches of wet snow.

It's no slam dunk, but a quarter inch of precipitation for Tuesday is looking probable. Image courtesy of NOAA.

The big X factor is ice. Several forecasters are saying we could be in for an extended period of sleet. Of course, the key will be the timing of the ice, which is looking advantageous for delays and/or snow days.

We're sure that by tomorrow at this time we'll have little more info about the track of the storm, but we can already tell you that any predictions we make will be low-confidence predictions given all the variables (track, temp, and amount of precip).

Rainy Weekend; Sleet/Snow for Tuesday

If you haven't gone gotten your tree yet, this weekend's rainy forecast is going to make that family event less fun than is typical. If you can wait until Sunday, that's a much better day that not-too-fat-not-too-tall Douglas fir.

We could see over an inch of rain Friday and Saturday. While we might see sleet at the onset of the storm on Friday, temps will again rise, approaching 50 degrees on Saturday, and it will rain hard Friday night and Saturday morning. What's left of the snow should be just about gone by Saturday night. After the rain comes through, expect high winds Saturday night and a return to more normal temps (low 30s) for the start of the week.

Only an inch for the Berkshires according to this model. Image courtesy of Henry Margusity. 

As for potential snow days, there is a lot of model disagreement about a Monday night/Tuesday storm. The US model takes the track to the north (warmer air/rain) while the Euro tracks it further south (colder air/sleet and snow). The lack of consensus means we're in a wait-and-see mode at the GSD Home Office. We're just not sure enough cold air will be in place to create enough snow by daybreak on Tuesday.

There is greater model consensus about a big storm on the 23rd. A few models yesterday were throwing out eye-popping numbers (2 feet +) for central New England. We do not think we'll get two feet of snow 10 days from now, but the chance for a major winter storm is very much in the conversation. Should we get another foot of snow, this will go down as one of the snowiest Decembers ever. And few people will mind having a white Christmas this year.

We'll do one update each day over the weekend as we monitor the chance for delays and snow days on Tuesday.

Delays for Wednesday, December 11

The light snow has for the most part come to an end in Berkshire County, but we have had just enough of the white stuff to cause a few delays. Here's what we have so far:

2-HOUR DELAY:

Central Berkshire 

Southern Berkshire

Delays Possible For Wednesday

We liked the snow report a lot better a few days ago. Our storm this week has brought plenty of rain and warmth--that 20 inches of snow sure disappeared quickly--and it looks like the track of the back end of it will be too far south for a meaningful snowfall for the Berkshires.

Still, though, we should see a new blanket of snow by the morning. It will only only amount to about an inch, with higher amounts in South County. Schools below Pittsfield will have a better shot at delays tomorrow morning than anybody. The timing is very good, but we're not sure the warm roads will allow the snow to pile up and make for slippery driving conditions.

Image courtesy of NWS-Albany. Just not enough volume for widespread delays.

If the snow does come down more steadily than is anticipated, it will be that greasy snow and make for slow traveling conditions.

We won't be surprised to see a few delays tomorrow, and it's unlikely to be a county-wide sweep where everyone gets delays.

Snow Threat for Wednesday Morning

Despite the balmy temps today and tomorrow (50 degrees!) and the rain that is turning last week's storm into snow soup, we need to keep an eye on the back end of this rainstorm as it could affect the length of the school day on Wednesday.

The rain will gradually taper and come to an end tomorrow, but as the cold front comes through, a coastal storm will develop that will hit southern New England hard. If the storm tracks slightly to the north, we could see a moderate snowfall from this storm.

Delays and even cancellations are possible Wednesday morning. Image courtesy of NWS-Albany.

The very warm temperatures will not work in our favor, but with the counterclockwise motion of the coastal low pressure, it will suck cold air from the north over us, changing the rain to snow Tuesday night.

Even though the we might not see a long period of snow, the timing of it will be just about perfect. The snow is supposed to start falling after midnight and stop in the late morning hours on Wednesday. Right now we're seeing predictions for 1-4 inches for Berkshire County, with 4 inches down by the Connecticut border and 1"  up by the Vermont border.

This is definitely a sneaky storm that we are very interested in tracking. More to come.

Winter Weather Advisories and An Early Release

Southern Vermont Supervisory Union has had quite a week. It has earned the vaunted triple, racking up a snow day, a delay and a release all in one week. SVSU schools will be getting out early today. We don't expect any other schools to follow suit, but you never know these days.

Here's when the light snow (2-3") will start. And it should be all over by midnight.

NWS-Albany

Winter Weather Advisory for Northern Berkshire on Friday

NWS-Albany has consulted the models and it would appear that our Alberta clipper may have a little more juice than was originally expected. A Winter Weather Advisory has been announced for the northern half of Berkshire County.

From 10 AM to 10 PM, Northern Berkshire County will see 2-4 inches, with as much as 5" in the higher elevation locales. Still, it won't be coming down that hard, but the drive home from school and from work might be slow tomorrow. The GSD Staff would also like to amend our earlier statement about activities and events for Friday night: we could definitely see some postponements. Fortunately, the official first games for winter sports teams are a few days away, so we won't see any meaningful games postponed. But scrimmages or jamborees could be affected.

Image courtesy of NWS-Albany.

Despite the forecast for higher precipitation totals, the timing is such that an early release doesn't make much sense. Students will have a full day of school tomorrow.

Friday Snow But Don't Get Your Hopes Up

As some of us still dig out from the massive December storm from earlier in the week, we have a round of light snow heading our way for the middle of day on Friday.

Unlike the last storm, which was a coastal storm, the snow producer tomorrow will be an Alberta clipper. Alberta clippers generally are moisture-starved as they come from the northwest and don't have much energy to work with. Occasionally, they hit the coast and develop into a more substantial storm, but that is more exception than rule.

Tomorrow's snow should start around 10 or so and last into the early evening. It will be very light, so it should not make for difficult travel. New drivers heading home from school should be extra careful--as they should be anyway--and we doubt any events scheduled for Friday night will get cancelled due to the snow. It won't be the easiest night for travel, but it really won't be that bad either.

We can expect 1-2 inches throughout the Berkshires, with higher amounts north and in the hill towns. We shouldn't see more than 4 inches from this storm.

Enjoy the weekend!

Storm Exits; Delays and Cancellations for Tuesday, December 3

Except for a few snow showers, the snow has finally stopped, and eventually we'll have clear skies and a cold day. Many schools have opted for the delay.

Here is the current list for this morning, which we'll update as the calls come in.

SNOW DAY:

Berkshire Country Day [upgrade]
Berkshire Waldorf
Berkshire Waldorf High School
Lee [upgrade]
Mohawk Trail [upgrade]
New Lebanon

2-HOUR DELAY:

Adams-Cheshire
BART
Berkshire Christian
Berkshire Community College (main campus delayed until 9; South County Center open on time)
Berkshire Hills
Berkshire Montessori
Central Berkshire
Clarksburg
Emma Miller
Farmington River Regional
Gabriel Abbott Memorial
Hancock
Hoosick Falls
McCann
Mount Greylock Regional
North Adams
Pine Cobble School
Richmond Consolidated
Southern Vermont Supervisory Union

OTHER:

Childcare of the Berkshires -- Open but no transportation

Delays for Tuesday, December 3

So far phase 2 of the storm has been underwhelming for the Berkshires, but not so for central New York, Albany, and eastern Mass. As the coastal low starts to intensify, Boston and its suburbs will get their snow days tomorrow. In fact, Boston Public Schools are off tomorrow already.

In fact, we also have some schools calling in delays for tomorrow based on existing conditions as well as the threat for more snow. We do expect a few of the heavy bands to move from the coast westward and give us a few periods of heavy snow. We don't think we'll see more than 6" tonight, but these snow bands are hard to predict where they'll eventually set up. So this part of the storm is much more volatile and will make it hard for us to say with confidence that all Berkshire Counties will have delays. Certainly, many will.

Here's our current list of 2-HOUR DELAYS for Tuesday, December 3 [updated 8:38 PM, 12/2]:

Berkshire Waldorf High School
Central Berkshire
Hancock
Hoosick Falls
Mohawk Trail
Mount Greylock Regional
New Lebanon
Southern Vermont Supervisory Union

OTHER:

Childcare of the Berkshires -- Open but no transportation

What Will Tomorrow Bring?

The lull between the two phases of the storm arrived as schedule, and if you could actually make it out of your driveway this morning, roads were in pretty good shape.

But let's cut to the chase and talk about tomorrow morning. The main source of energy is slowly moving toward the coast of southern New England. Once it finally gets there, the precipitation levels will pick up in intensity. The eastern part of the state will get hammered overnight, but us folks out in the boonies should still see moderate snow totals.

What you need to do is think about phase two as a separate storm and move away from the total snowfall for this 36-hour event. Eighteen to 24 inches is much more terrifying than 4-8 inches, which is what we'll see tonight. And it's supposed to end around midnight or shortly after, which means road crews should have time to take care of the roads.

Expected additional snow by daybreak Tuesday.

What's really difficult to predict are those heavy bands of snow that come down at 1-2" per hour. This storm will have that level of energy in it still, and we haven't factored in the upslope snow that typically occurs in the Berkshires and the Greens with these coastal storms.

This is just to say that the snow could easily extend past midnight and bring an addition 4-6" in South County and 6-8" in North County, and higher amounts still (9-12") in high elevations and east-facing slopes in the Berkshires. If the snow persists toward daybreak, delays will be more popular tomorrow than snow days.

So, it may not be snowing now and the temp might have risen about 32 degrees, but we'll see cooling and an increase in precipitation later this afternoon. By dusk it should be snowing again across the Berkshires.

We'll update again later this evening.

Clean Sweep: Berkshire County Snow Day

Well, that couldn't have gone any better. The snow arrived right on time, and it continues to come down heavily Sunday evening. As of 8:30 PM, we have 6 inches on the ground at the GSD Home Office. We could be wrong but it would appear almost all schools in the Albany/Berkshires/Springfield region will enjoy an extra day of Thanksgiving vacation.

Now that you have one in the bank, we know you really only have one question: will it snow long enough and hard enough for another snow day on Tuesday? We're going to have to see how phase two--the coastal low--develops, but it's not out of the question. More likely we'll see delays on Tuesday.

Local snow reports from earlier this evening.

In case you missed it earlier, here's the list of cancellations for Monday, December 2:

CANCELLATIONS:

Adams-Cheshire
BART Charter
Berkshire Christian
BCC
Berkshire Country Day
Berkshire Hills
Berkshire Waldorf & HS
Central Berkshire
Childcare of the Berkshires (no services; offices closed as well)
Emma Miller Elementary
Farmington River Regional
Gabriel Abbott Memorial
Hancock
Lee
Lenox
McCann (No. Berkshire Voc.)
MCLA
Mohawk Trail
Mount Greylock Regional
New Lebanon
North Adams
Pine Cobble
Pittsfield
Richmond Consolidated
Southern Berkshire
Southwest Vermont Supervisory Union
Stamford Elementary
Twin Valley
Williams College (admin offices and Children's Center)

DELAYS:

Bennington College (until 10 AM)

Cancellations for Monday, December 2

CANCELLATIONS [last update 6:57 PM]:

Adams-Cheshire
Berkshire Christian
BCC
Berkshire Country Day
Berkshire Hills
Berkshire Waldorf & HS
Central Berkshire
Childcare of the Berkshires (but Magic Seasons & Monument Square -- 1 hr. delay)
Emma Miller Elementary
Farmington River Regional
Gabriel Abbott Memorial
Hancock
Lee
Lenox
McCann (No. Berkshire Voc.)
MCLA
Mohawk Trail
Mount Greylock Regional
New Lebanon
North Adams
Pine Cobble
Pittsfield
Richmond Consolidated
Southern Berkshire
Southwest Vermont Supervisory Union
Stamford Elementary
Twin Valley
Williams College (admin offices and Children's Center)

DELAYS:

Bennington College (until 10 AM)

Channel 10 Albany

NWS Albany

The first official flakes fell at the GSD Home Office at 12:56 PM. Several municipalities have declared Snow Emergencies. The Winter Storm Warning is now in effect. The radar shows that several bands of heavy snow (1-2" per hour) will come through later this afternoon and evening. The cancellation list is up and running.

But we do want to caution readers that there is a scenario where we get a quick burst of snow tonight and then a long lull in the snow until it picks up again tomorrow afternoon around the same time as today (2 PM or so). If the quick burst ends around midnight, road crews would have time to clear roads for the morning commute. And with the second round of snow not anticipated until the end of the school day, some districts might be able to sneak in a full day. That's why we continue to hold off on the 100% confidence rating.

If you have to go out, take care out there.

December's Here: Let It Snow

The Winter Storm Warning is still up for Berkshire County and has been extended for most other parts in our region, especially to our south.

(NWS Albany)

The storm will come in two phases. This afternoon and night we will see periods of moderate and heavy snow before a lull in the proceedings tomorrow morning. Then the snow will ramp up again midday when it will again snow at moderate and heavy rates. When we get the heavy snow, it will be coming down at 1-2" per hour. Almost everyone will see at least 10" of snow, with some lucky folks in higher elevations and in eastern parts of the County getting close to two feet by Tuesday morning.

The X-factor. (NWS Albany)

As we indicated yesterday, an X-factor for this storm will be the gusty winds, which will obfuscate just how hard it is snowing.

Many organizations have cancelled meetings and activities for this afternoon. MCLA, Westfield State and Mount Holyoke have cancelled classes for tomorrow. As soon as the first County school calls in a cancellation--which is inevitable--we'll start our running list. We do think several districts will make the call this evening because of the high expected snow totals and the prolonged nature of this storm.

MCLA Cancels Classes for Monday

At first glance, the GSD Staff thought this was an odd one, but the more we thought about it, it does make sense.

MCLA--yes, MCLA--is the first school to cancel classes for Monday.

It's a little strange given that there's only one or two more weeks left in the fall semester for most colleges and class time is very precious at this late stage in the game. And travel on Monday will be no picnic either, which means many students will miss classes on Tuesday. But with all the disruption to people's travel plans on Sunday and the really terrible forecast for Monday, it does appear to be a rational decision by the college to keep students off the roads.

So, MCLA has no classes, which suggests that many high school and elementary school students will have no school on Monday as well.

We'll do an official delay and cancellation list--hopefully--starting Sunday night.

[Update 9:15 PM: An edict has clearly come from on high as Westfield State and Mount Holyoke have also cancelled classes for Monday.]

Storm Eve, Evening Update

NWS Albany folks have lowered our snow totals from 17" earlier in the day to a mere foot, but most forecasters are still calling for 12-18" for the Berkshires, with the snow starting around noon on Sunday and lasting all the way through the early hours of Tuesday.

Image courtesy of The Weather Channel

The heaviest snow belt has shifted west for the moment, where areas west of Albany are expecting 20 inches. This heavy snow band of 18-24" will be very hard to predict, and it's certainly possible it will switch back to the Berkshires once the storm commences.

Nothing we're seeing right now has changed our view about school on Monday. It's highly unlikely any Superintendent will want to risk rolling out the buses Monday morning, especially with the forecast for continuing snow and the blowing and drifting of snow that will be taking place all day Monday.

Channel 22 out of Springfield chimes in.

So no new news is good news. You probably want to get your errands completed in the morning tomorrow as travel will be difficult after 3 or 4 PM tomorrow.

An absolutely sure-fire prediction from the GSD Staff is that you'll be reading more posts about this storm tomorrow.

Winter Storm Warning: Over a Foot of Snow Predicted (Dec. 1-2)

Well, it's official. NWS Albany could wait no longer and at a little before 4 AM, they upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a full-blown Winter Storm Warning.

Image courtesy of WNYT Channel 13 Albany.

A few things changed, all to the better. First, the storm window is now from 11 AM Sunday to 7 AM Tuesday. This a big development. For one, it helps anyone traveling back home or back to college. And two, it means that a Tuesday delay or snow day is now in play. (Are we getting greedy with this storm? Perhaps.) The second change was an upgrade of the amount of snow--we're now in the 12 to 24 inch range. And the third change was the mention of wind--gusts to 35 mph--which will create blizzard-like conditions on Monday.

If you've done any digging yourself on this storm, you'll hear that it isn't one big storm but two moderate storms. The first part will impact us Sunday and Sunday night with 4-8 inches of snow. And then phase two--the coastal low--kicks in Monday morning and that part of the storm will bring an additional 6-12 inches of snow. Add it all together and we probably will see a foot of snow in most places, with the east-facing slopes of the Berkshires much closer to 18 inches.

That's a lot of school-cancelling snow. (NWS Albany)

Part one of the storm alone would have created a good chance for snow days on Monday, but now with the forecast threat of an all-day snow on Monday, we simply don't see too many Superintendents deciding to risk it. Things can certainly change--it's the weather after all--but this storm is looking like a big one. Get out the tall snow boots, and that homework you were putting off until Sunday can probably wait until Monday.

Winter Storm Watch for Berkshire County (Dec. 1-2)

If you desire a snow day on Monday, then we've just received another good sign: the announcement of a Winter Storm Watch for all of Berkshire County.

Boy, that certainly escalated quickly. (Thanks to NWS Albany for the image.)

As is said these days, here are the deets:

*The watch starts at 7 AM Sunday--much earlier than we thought it would--and ends at 7 PM Monday. This usually means the snow will start around 10 AM and last well into the afternoon on Monday.

*9+ inches of snow expected. That's nothing to sneeze at.

*To quote the National Weather Service, "travel could be very difficult to impossible."

There's still enough iffy-ness with this storm that we could see these snow totals downgraded before the end of the day tomorrow, but the GSD Staff has a strong suspicion that we'll see the Watch upgraded to a Warning by noon tomorrow.

We'll provide the latest on the exact timing and track and snow total estimate during the day tomorrow.

First Maps for Sunday/Monday Storm

We're just over 48 hours away from the first plowable snow event of the season, and the snow maps are starting to populate social media and weather websites.

The GFS (US model) thinks this will be a big one.

The Euro model clearly seems to be the preferred model, and it's forecasting a rock solid 6-8 inches so far. The US model has really high snow totals--over a foot--that we think are overblown. Take your pick. But this could all change of the next few days--a slowdown Sunday night and a possible intrusion of warm air could both keep totals well under 6 inches.

NWS-Albany

Right now we are fairly encouraged by what we're seeing. If the storm does what experts think it will, then we'll see snow Sunday afternoon and it will continue to snow through Monday afternoon. As long as the snow stays snow and is steadily falling around 5 AM, then most schools in Berkshire County will be off on Monday.

Still On Track for a Sunday Night Storm

Happy Thanksgiving, flake followers! We hope everyone is fighting off the tryptophan and can fully process the notion that our first snow day of the season might just happen on Monday.

All of our sources of intel are still on board for a plowable snow on Monday. We'll see about the exact timing of the storm--it could last for more than 24 hours with some breaks from the snow in between--but the morning commute on Monday does look messy.

You can always count on Accuweather for a very favorable snow map.

There are still too many variables at this stage in the development of the storm to figure out how much snow we'll get by when, but the liquid precipitation totals look good, as do the temps for Sunday into Monday.

Eventually, we'll have maps to post, but right now our advice is to prepare to clean off your car and driveway on Monday morning and perhaps again Monday night when the snow finally stops.

More detailed analysis to follow. Pie is about to be served at the GSD Home Office.

Storm Buzz Continues

We're always a little skeptical when we hear chatter about a big storm a week in advance of it, but the ravens continue to deliver encouraging news to GSD Headquarters.

Here's what the NOAA Albany folks are saying:

Still too early to give total snow accumulations for the Sunday-
Monday event but the Weather Prediction Center has increased
probabilities for this being a "plowable" snowfall event with > 50%
probabilities painted over more of eastern NY/western New England
than previous forecasts.

At this still early stage in the developments, that's about as good as gets. We expect to know much more in the next 48 hours as the forecasting models start to come into agreement.

The big issue will be the track of the storm. The European model has the storm gaining strength as it moves into southern New England; the US model has it tracking farther south. If you want a big snow event, root for the European model to win this early snow season battle.

This storm is far from a done deal. We urge you not to buy into the hype just yet. Much more to follow from us in the coming days.

Late Weekend Snowstorm Possibility

We're in a stormy period for the next week or so, and after some rain and a blustery Thanksgiving Day, we will turn our attention to a possible storm Sunday night into Monday.

We're way, way out in front on this one, but the folks over at NOAA in Albany are already talking about a 30 to 50 percent chance of a plowable snow for our region, with a higher chance in Southern Vermont and the ADKs.

This the 6-7 day forecast for liquid precipitation. We're in the .5 inch range according to this map, which would translate to 6 inches of snow.

So much can change--and likely will change--over the next few days that there's no sense getting hyped up about the storm today, but we wanted to put it in your radar, as the saying goes.

A bonus day off after the long weekend would be seen as a nice early holiday present for the youngsters.

Wintry Mix for Sunday

Just a heads up that we could be seeing a messy day on Sunday with rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow all possible from late Saturday night and on through the day on Sunday. It sounds like a great day to be inside and binge that new favorite show or hunker down for some TV sports.

If this storm were to occur in January, we'd be talking about a class coastal storm, replete with cyclogenesis. But because there isn't much cold air in place, it's going to be mainly a rain and wet snow event.

The most we'll see is 3-4 inches in the higher elevations, but realistically we'll see a coating or up to an inch in most locations in the Berkshires. Travel could be slippery Sunday morning and then later in the day as the rain changes to a wet snow. There is zero threat this storm will carry into Monday morning and affect the morning commute.

Image courtesy of NWS-Albany

As for our next chance for measurable snow, we're not seeing anything heading our way in the next two weeks. We will have a strong rain and wind storm come through on Wednesday night and into Thanksgiving. Conditions will be very blustery on Turkey Day as the storm pulls off the coast and departs.

Take it slow tomorrow if the snow starts to pile up, and enjoy the rest of the weekend.

Ice Alert: Winter Weather Advisory for the Monday AM Commute

We almost hit single digits last night at the GSD Home Office, with the temp bottoming out at 10 degrees Fahrenheit. The average low temp for mid-November for the Berkshires is right around 30 degrees, so you are not imagining how unseasonably cold it is.

We have a minor weather maker approaching from the west that could impact the morning commute. On a scale of 1 being mildly interested and 5 being giddy with excitement, this storm is rating about 0.8, but, still, we owe it to you, dear readers, to keep you informed about the potential for weather events impacting the length of the school day.

NWS-Albany has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Berkshires because of the chance for ice accumulation and sleet. The models are predicting about a tenth of an inch of ice, which isn't very much but could create driving hazards in the morning. The Advisory period is from 1 AM Sunday night through noon on Monday. We doubt schools will be delayed because of the ice, but there is a small chance some towns will not be able to treat the roads effectively enough to make travel safe for buses. Our confidence rating will be very low on this one.

Not a lot to work with here. Image courtesy of NWS-Albany

As for the week ahead, we could see snow showers Tuesday morning--not enough to merit delays--and a return to more normal temperatures for this time of year--daily highs around 40 and daily lows in the upper 20s all week. Except for the chance for ice tomorrow, it should be an uneventful weather week.

Wet Snow Tuesday But No Real Accumulation

As you may have guessed from the lack of updates from us on this early season storm, it will be tracking to our our north, and the most we will see is an inch or so on the grounds during the morning hours on Tuesday. The morning commute should be okay. So, we'll have to wait a few more weeks (or longer) for our first school-shortening or school-closing event of the season.

Now you need to brace yourselves for brutal cold for Wednesday. We'll struggle to get to the mid-20s on Wednesday, and Thursday morning you can expect to wake up to single-digit temps.

From our friends at WNYT-Channel 13 Albany, and this map may be on the high side for the Berkshires.

As for winter weather, we don't see any in the 10-day forecast. Temps will return more to normal next week with high 40s the norm for the week of the 18th.

Don't be too disappointed. We'll see plenty of snow events this season in due time.

Snowier Forecast for Tuesday

Just a quick heads up that the storm that we thought was somewhat fizzling for Tuesday is now gaining some strength. It still (probably) won't be a blockbuster, but we could see almost half a foot in the northernmost points in the Berkshires.

Saturday night's snow map from NWS-Albany.

Delays are obviously still possible for Tuesday. There are some signs that the storm could be hastening itself along and might end early enough to allow road crews to clear off any snowy roads, so we'll have to keep an eye on that.

We're definitely dialed in on this storm and will be tracking it round the clock for the next 48 hours.

And, also, don't be surprised to see the first Winter Weather Advisory of the season for North County on Monday night.

Light Snow Possibility for Tuesday

If we were one of those shameless weather media outlets that tries to drive up web traffic, we would tell you to brace for the worst, get the snow tires on, and find those high snow boots because the first big snow storm of the season is about to unleash its fury on the Berkshires.

But we're not like them.

We do have a storm on the horizon for Monday night into Tuesday morning. Initially, the models were forecasting a classic I-95 coastal storm (read: 6-10 inches for us). Unfortunately, the latest models have the center of the storm pushing inland and northward, which means higher temps and less snow for Western Mass.

There is a puncher's chance that there will be enough messiness on the roads on Tuesday in the northern half of the Berkshires to necessitate our first delays of the season. Based on the models we're seeing, Adams-Cheshire, Florida and Clarksburg would be the more likely candidates for delays on Tuesday, but delays there are by no means a lock.

The best feature of this storm is the timing. Snow should be coming down during the morning commute, especially north of Pittsfield.

Close but no cigar, for now.

If you're really desperate for that first delay or snow day, then you need to use all your mental energy to will the track of the storm southward. If the storm center does shift 100 miles toward the coast, then we could be in for a more moderate snowfall.

After Tuesday's storm, brace for very cold temps for November. We could see single digits on Wednesday night!

Mountain Snow Tonight; Cold and Snow Next Week

Most Berkshirites will need to wait until next week to see the first sustained snow of the season, as tonight's storm will mostly be rain except in the highest elevations of the County.

Today's storm will produce afternoon and evening rain for most locations. If you live in elevations 1500 feet or above, expect snow-covered ground by tomorrow morning. Those below 1500 feet will see some wet flakes mixing in with the rain but no accumulation.

The bigger news out of Weatherland is the huge mass of cold air about to funnel down from Canada next week. And there is talk of a moderate snowfall on Tuesday. Temps will plummet into the low teens on Tuesday night, which is very unusual for this time of year. And with the arrival of the cold air, the chance for a solid 3-4 inch storm is in the realm of possibility. If the timing works out, we could see delays on Tuesday.

The map of the above is a GFS model map, which isn't a favorite, but it has proven to be reliable in the past. We'll have much more to say over the weekend about the big changes coming to Berkshire County next week.

First Snow of the Season?

It's November, and with a giant mass of cold air about to descend on the continental United States, that means the flakes will be a-flying very soon.

You may have noticed on your favorite weather app--our current app of choice is Dark Sky, BTW--that the snowflake icon has appeared for Thursday night into Friday. Yes, we could see a few inches of snow in the Berkshires that evening. Will it lead to delays on Friday? Highly unlikely. But it's always exhilarating to wake up to that first blanket of the white stuff.

It is supposed to get quite cold--for this time of the year--by the weekend. Temps will start out in the low 50s at the beginning of the week, and then by Saturday highs will be in the low 30s for a few days. On Saturday night we could dip into the teens. That is chilly for early November. Temps will edge back up on Monday to the 40s when we could see more snow in the form of snow showers.

We'll keep an eye on the snow for Thursday night, which could impact high school soccer tournament games that evening.

That's all for now. We'll have more later in the week on this very minor snow event.

We're Back! Winter 2019-2020 Isn't Far Around the Corner

With a record four-foot snowstorm this past weekend (Sept. 27-28) out in Montana that knocked out power and cancelled school, it was high time for the GSD Staff to dust off the ol' weather maps and storm models and get back to work.

Before we plunge right into it, we want to say thank you for reading. Predicting snow days is a labor of love. We mostly(-ish) get it right, and we hope to have a little fun along the way. Once again, we look forward to bringing you the best-est, most accurate, and timeliest information that we can this season.

Let's get on with the weather, and let's deal with the most pressing concerns first. We have already seen a prediction for snow in northern New England (mostly Maine and New Hampshire) for October 10th from the GFS model. While it is unlikely the Berkshires will see flakes from that system, they won't be that far away. So it's only a matter of time that you'll be reading these posts for real.

As for the long-range forecast for 2019-20, here's what we have to say about that:

1) Global warming is not working in our favor. July of 2019 was the hottest month (globally) that humans have experienced, since we've been keeping records. That isn't great news. Warm summers do not always mean warm winters, but we're clearly trending in the wrong direction on the overall temperature front.

2) The three-month forecasts for November/December/January and for December/January/February are for above average temperatures and average or near-average precipitation totals. These three-month forecasts are not ones we at GSD spend a lot of time on, so take them with a grain of salt. If they do prove to be accurate, we'll experience a below average winter. An average Berkshire winter usually yields around 60 inches of snow, with higher amounts in the hilltowns and lower totals in the valleys.

3) Forecast models are predicting neither an El Nino nor a La Nina winter. We'll be in the neutral phase, which typically yields an average or slightly below average winter.

So, that's a typically very bland forecast for this time of year. But bland isn't bad. Forty to 50 inches of snow--a slightly below average winter--is sure to generate enough snow days and delays to get us through the bleak mid-winter hours.

We do see a trend toward cooler temps over the next two weeks, with many days in the low to mid 50s. Temps in the evening will be dipping toward the freezing mark during several nights, so we are getting closer and closer to the first frozen precipitation of the season. Even if it doesn't happen in the next few weeks, it won't be long thereafter.

Rain to Snow Today; Winter Storm Warning for Northern Berkshire

Temps have stayed well above freezing at the GSD Home Office (elevation 900'), so the rain continues here. Snow is falling to our north and west. Expect the shift from rain to snow to occur later today and into this evening. Here's what we have for shortened days:

EARLY RELEASE:

Hoosick Falls (NY)
Southwest Vermont SU

SNOW DAY:

Emma Miller
Mohawk Trail

Winter Storm Warning for No. Berkshire County

[6 PM Update: Southwest Vermont Supervisory SU will be releasing students early tomorrow due to the Winter Storm Warning forecast for Bennington County. We'll start a list later tonight only if more districts call in. See our afternoon report below.]

Boy, that escalated quickly.

The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Winter Storm Warning--not a Watch--for Berkshire County. Snow days and early releases are in play for Friday. The window for this storm is 2 AM Friday to noon on Saturday.

Colder air is expected to deepen as the storm moves up the coast and intensifies. The rain we are experiencing right now is the leading edge of the storm, and we will see a gradual changeover to wet snow anywhere between 3 AM and noon Friday, depending on the elevation of your location. Some schools do have a shot at a snow day tomorrow.

Because the temperature has been over freezing during the day for the last week or so, it will take much longer for the snow to accumulate on the roads. For this reason we think students should have little problem getting to their schools in Northern Berkshire tomorrow morning.

But if the snow begins to accumulate on the roads before the morning commute, or Superintendents are worried about accumulating snow during the day, then we might see a snow day or two from this list of schools: Hancock, Florida, Savoy, Central Berkshire, Adams-Cheshire, and perhaps even North Adams and Mount Greylock.

In all of Berkshire County we should see accumulating snow at some point on Friday For that reason, we can not rule out a few early releases for tomorrow.

This storm will impact high elevation towns the most. NWS Albany is expecting 5 to 10 inches of snow for Northern Berkshire with some higher elevations getting over a foot. Southern Berkshire County could see 4-6 inches. The bulk of this snow should fall Friday afternoon and into the evening, if we were to generalize for the entire County.

Be aware that the past history with these late season storms indicates that it will be a bust. But--there's always a but--should it do what meteorologists think it is going to do, some group of students will have some time off from school tomorrow.

The GSD Office will be kicking it into high gear tomorrow morning with updates on the storm, cancellations and/or delays.

If you can make sense of this snow onset map, then you're a better person than we are. Good luck with it.